So I've been looking at scramble.nl china orbat again and the J10/J7 situation has really gotten out of hand.
Basically, scramble.nl lists this:
4 J10A brigades (one of them training one)
1 J10B brigade
7 J10C brigades
(and some J10 presence in flight test and development bases, as well as in demo team, but those should be token numbers.)
Those would account for approximately 100 J10A, 24 J10B and let's say 200 J10C, when those flight test and demo figures are added.
Basically, there's like 150 J10a, 25+ J10b and probably 100+ J10C unaccounted for (correct me if I've made a grave counting error there)
While some J10a MAY have been retired by now, I find it unlikely that would happen in large numbers. Frankly, the type started mass production around 2003, and back then production volumes were fairly low. J10B and C are unlikely to have been retired, they're simply too new and too potent.
Basically, I expect at least 250 J10 of various types to be unaccounted for. (not counting S models for now)
That can easily be explained by the possibility that some of the even older types have been retired and second hand J10s went into their hands.
So what does scramble say about J8 and J7? Well, all J8, sans the dedicated recon variant, are gone.
And as for J7, 4 frontline brigades are still listed using them without any further comments as well as 1 training brigade.
6 more brigades are listed using them but with a comment that they've likely been withdrawn from use, meaning that the info is outdated.
that's basically 10 brigades worth of planes. Which translates quite nicely into 250+ J10s taking their place, as that many J10s would nicely fill out 10 brigades, give or take.
Basically, I believe it's possible we are at the point where not only J8s have all been retired (again, not counting the dedicated recon variant), but also that no J7s are serving in china's air force anymore. Except, possibly, for one lone training brigade. Which would likely not last for long either, due to logistics issues of supporting a type for a dwindling number of planes. JJ7s have also been disappearing at a great pace now that JL10 is getting produced in numbers. So even the training role of J7 is something that we may see disappear within a matter of a couple of years.
Anyway, what do you think and do you have different figures to suggest?