The Civil War in Libya

It took many days to reorganize the Libyan army that now seems to be winning the civil war. The officers who deserted to the rebels apparently were much less competent than those who remained, because they had many days to bring some order into their side.

delft said:

It took many days to reorganize the Libyan army that now seems to be winning the civil war. The officers who deserted to the rebels apparently were much less competent than those who remained, because they had many days to bring some order into their side.

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I disagree. It is unreasonable to expect low to mid-level military officers to be able to resolve the leadership issue of the rebellion.

Finn McCool said:

Yeah, that's what I was saying. The rebel's greatest advantage was their political momentum, and that's drained away now. I think your analysis is quite correct. Empty command spots that caused confusion have been replaced with diehard loyalists. They don't need to be military geniuses, either.

It's frustrating to watch the rebel forces trying to hold the line at Ras Lanuf. Apparently they've almost all retreated from there. Qaddafi's forces didn't even have to seriously assault it. They just shelled it. Of course, being under shelling is terrifying and you feel helpless. But if the rebels had dug in, and had some sort of leadership and organization, they would not have been forced back by shelling alone. Apparently the only actual ground counterattack the government forces launched was comprised of 2 tanks (this according to a video report by Euronews). I don't even know if they attempted to close with the rebels. It sounded more like they were just sitting in the desert at long range, taking pot shots. If the rebels had some sort of organized logistics and command, they could have brought up their own tanks to drive them off.

I've watched a lot of videos of the last 12 hours, and I must say the shelling isn't that bad if we put it against historical precedents. In the exact same terrain, during WWII, infantry regularly withstood shelling that was far worse, and repelled attacks afterward. If the rebels had dug in and had someone to order them to stay when they wanted to run, they would still be holding the city. But that's how conflicts against "militia" type forces work. Psychological factors are often much more important than actual force.

Also, I've seen lots of Soviet MANPADs being carried by rebels, but I haven't seen any being used, despite the fact that they're always under attack from low flying aircraft. Why? General incompetence?

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With civil war between trained but unenthusiastic soldiers and well motivated, fragmented and poorly organized civilian based militias, there is only two ways the civilians could win from historical precedent.

The first is a lighten blitzkrieg style rapid revolution, whereby the civilians use their passion and general confusion, hesitation and sympathy amongst the military to seize power before all the key command positions could be taken over by regime die-hards while all the hesitant commanders and soldiers either defect, desert or are removed.

Once the regime has re-established control over the military, even if the individual soldiers have no stomach for combat, victory could still be won through the use of long-ranged firepower and also by exploiting the fractured and disorganized natural of such spontaneous uprisings. This appears to have happened in Libya already.

This means that without outside intervention, the only way the rebels could win now is through a protracted civil war. There will be heavy losses amongst the rebels as the most fractured and incompetent elements are eliminated. However, this process of natural selection, for lack of a better term, will also allow the most competent and organized factions/groups to emerge as the leading force amongst the rebels, which will absorb the scattered remaining strength of already defeated rebel forces.

If outside forces are to intervene in a decisive way (and I do not count a no-fly zone as such), they should, and quite likely, will wait until such a leading force emerges from the opposition, for them to evaluate their ideology, leaders and tendencies, and if it looks like they could do business with these rebels, more covert operations will no doubt be launched to strike some sort of bargain before outsiders throw their support behind the rebels.

Ultimately, this may prove to be a blessing in disguise for Libya as unlikely as it seems now. Often in the case where a rash of diverse and unaffiliated armed groups combine to drive an unpopular leader out of power, the victorious sides ended up feuding amongst themselves for power after the unifying hate figure has been removed and deep seated divisions between all the armed groups emerge. This has led to civil
or the break-up of a country before. If outside forces intervene before an obvious leader emerges amongst the rebels, the risk of this happening is magnified, especially if outsiders act individually instead of as a unified whole through the UN.

One can easily see a situation where the Europeans, Americans, Russians, Chinese, Iranians even, all offer support to groups most sympathetic to their own positions. Together, they may drive out Gaddaffi, but it could easily turn into a giant free-for-all afterwards.

If a unified, organized single rebel command emerges from Gaddaffi's counter attack, it will make the aftermath of the civil war much smoother after Qaddaffi has been driven from power.

The biggest question would be if such a leading force could emerge at all. If the Libyans are unlucky and there is no single person amongst the rebel commanders up to the task of organizing and leading the men under the command to hold out against the regime attacks long enough to emerge as the leading figure to at least have a chance to gather outside support, than Gaddaffi may well win this. There will be terrible bloodshed in the purges afterwards, what's left of the Libyan population who haven't been killed or fled will suffer horribly with a war ravaged country under crippling international sanctions.

As for the MANPADS, well could it be logistics?

MANPADS need to be taken care of, even the sturdy Russian and Chinese ones. If some gong-ho civilians only grabbed the launchers and forgot about the batteries or coolants, those MANPADS may not be of a lot of use to them with no batteries and/or sensors that have been fried by the desert sun.

solarz said:

I disagree. It is unreasonable to expect low to mid-level military officers to be able to resolve the leadership issue of the rebellion.

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Agreed. The rebels have political, not just military, leadership problems.

I'm starting to think this is going to end in a bloody mess and the world is going to act only after Gaddafi starts massacring tens of thouands out of revenge.

Mr T said:

Agreed. The rebels have political, not just military, leadership problems.

I'm starting to think this is going to end in a bloody mess and the world is going to act only after Gaddafi starts massacring tens of thouands out of revenge.

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Sure they'd act, not after Gaddafi smashed the rebellion and flatten several eastern cities for their actions, but when he failed to restore his country's oil production and export ASAP...if I heard the BBC news this morning correctly, now even the US is saying the rebels are at sheer disadvantage in term of manpower qualities, weapons and leadership, whereas the Libyan government forces are gaining ground, they even said no-fly zone won't be a saving grace for the rebellion, as it'd not stop land-based attacks.

Great analysis from all of you, the best and most rational (not gung-ho for one side) I have read. It seems Qaddafi and company dug their heels in and reorganized their forces after the first two weeks of bad news. After all the defections, who ever is left can be considered sufficiently loyal to Qaddafi because there has not been any significant defections in a week. It is interesting that where many regimes and leaders would have crumbed and fled the country like the Tunisian President, all Qaddafi's family and allies stood their ground when the chips were down.

When I clicked on this thread, SDF auto-populated a related thread from 2004 about France selling Milan anti-tank missiles and radio communication systems to Libya. Were those ever delivered? Remember France tried to sell Libya Rafale fighters too!

http://www.sinodefenceforum.com/world-armed-forces/france-confirms-major-arms-deal-libya-3356.html

Interesting how France was so quick to cozy up to Qaddafi and now are the first to recognize his enemies.

Yes, what's up with France? What are they playing at?

Also, in Egypt, Mubarak had little or no control over the military. There was simply no way he could order Egyptian military to suppress the protesters. I'm not familiar with Tunisia, but I imagine it's a similar situation. In Libya, however, Gaddafi obviously has a backbone of loyal troops, as well as enough money to hire an army of mercenaries. Those made all the difference.

I also have to say that I was pretty incredulous when I read all those reports about the rebels making such advances that they were almost laying siege to Tripoli, and how Gaddafi was "finished". The whole reason I started this thread was because how incredible I found that a modern military force with air force and artillery could crumble before a civilian uprising.

This article in The Atlantic shows an incompetent military leadership, despite the fact that it does contain at least one general:

The Arab League has voted to ask the UNSC to impose a no fly zone over Libya to help protect rebel forces from airstrikes. That's a big step really as it puts some serious pressure on Gaddafi as well as foreign nations that could intervene. Russia still has some serious doubts about a no fly zone and may veto any resolution in the UNSC, but I wonder if regionall support from the arab nations will be enough anyway.
Arab League secretary Amr Mussa has hinted at a potential supporting role for aran forces, and I think some in the western hemisphere would really welcome that, as it would really destroy any notion this is a western interferrance.
However, by no I wonder if a pure no fly zone plus some airlifted aid, maybe even weapons, are enough. The momentum really has shifted and Gaddafi forces seem to gani the upper hand due to large scale heavy weapons and air support. Once the rebells are on the retreat, the situation is likely to get even worse, IMO, as it severly cuts into the rebells moral, wich I think was probably the greatest advantage they had initially.
So they may even need close air support by now. I currently have doubts intervention would go that far, however. But maybe that's a point were interested arab air forces could join in.

Majority of 23,000 votes in Fox News poll wants U.S. to stay out of Libya




60% of 23,000 respondents want U.S. to stay out of Libyan civil war.