The Civil War in Libya

Mr T

Mr T

Senior Member
Finn McCool said:
Instead they got detained and humiliated by their supposed allies.
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I don't think you can be humiliated by friendly forces in a situation like this. There was a degree of goodwill in the mission, given there were only a few bodyguards and they were only carrying light arms. If the rebels got paranoid there was never going to be anything the SAS could do apart from starting a gunfight (and getting their VIP killed).

If anything it showed that the rebels don't have a clue. The visit was supposedly agreed with one group of leaders but the message wasn't passed on to those who counted.

Or, as some have suggested, there was another mission that is being kept confidential and we won't find out about for several decades.
 
D

delft

Brigadier
The UN has the authority to interfere, the member states do not.
Btw, the SAS people said they were unarmed, then arms and explosives were found in the helicopter. They also blew the cover of the spy that had been working on the farm for five months and who was seen to slip away when he heard the helicopter. Was he there to prepare for this civil war?
 
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Mr T

Mr T

Senior Member
delft said:
The UN has the authority to interfere, the member states do not.
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Sorry, you'll have to refer me to specific Articles for me to consider this any further.

Btw, the SAS people said they were unarmed, then arms and explosives were found in the helicopter.
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The compound guards said that they had that stuff with them when they arrived, which was why they were detained.

The story changes every day depending on who you talk to.
 
Finn McCool

Finn McCool

Captain
Registered Member
Mr T said:
I don't think you can be humiliated by friendly forces in a situation like this. There was a degree of goodwill in the mission, given there were only a few bodyguards and they were only carrying light arms. If the rebels got paranoid there was never going to be anything the SAS could do apart from starting a gunfight (and getting their VIP killed).

If anything it showed that the rebels don't have a clue. The visit was supposedly agreed with one group of leaders but the message wasn't passed on to those who counted.
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I just mean that it's humiliating from a professional standpoint to the unit when any of their sensitive missions is revealed to the public. It constitutes a failure and a political headache.

Anyway, I find that whole story to be much less interesting than the actual fighting. The most important battle right now is in Zawiya. That city has held out under assault after assault, but the government has brought ever more firepower to bear. The army is learning just how hard it is to dig infantry out of urban defenses. But their advantage in firepower and professionalism is certainly beginning to tell. We can't be sure but it the government is in the city and are making progress. If their morale and political will holds up (which is a question, considering the quality of the government's troops and the questionable loyalty of the officers), the government will take the city eventually.

If it falls, western Libya will be solidly under regime control and Qaddafi's most capable unit, the Khamis Brigade, will be freed to assault the tenuous rebel lines in the eastern desert around Ras Lanouf, or to attack the still defiant but isolated city of Misrata. Of course, the news media is practically declaring Qaddafi has won in the most hyperbolic terms. This isn't true. But the rebels have come up against obstacles that will require serious firepower and competent leadership to overcome. And the clock is ticking.
 
D

delft

Brigadier
Mr T said:
Sorry, you'll have to refer me to specific Articles for me to consider this any further.



The compound guards said that they had that stuff with them when they arrived, which was why they were detained.

The story changes every day depending on who you talk to.
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Article 2 points 4 and 7. I learned it at school but, although I still have the book, had it in my hands last week, I hadn't looked at it for more than half a century.

And indeed, the story of the SAS and the British spies gets more bizarre every day.
 
SampanViking

SampanViking

The Capitalist
Staff member
Super Moderator
VIP Professional
Registered Member
I more I read on this story, the more my suspicion grows that the West has cut a deal with Gadaffi and that continued talk of no fly zones and support for the rebels is simply hubris.

Clearly the West has Gadaffi by the short and curlies and can demand significant concessions from him, in order to buy his survival. By contrast, they would have no such leverage with the rebels, who; if victorious, would hold a moral authority that would make them untouchable and able to renegotiate upwards any Oil contract agreed by the Gadaffi regime, with total impunity.

The SAS and their "diplomat" were captured several hundred miles east of any known Government forces and in the heart of rebel controlled territory. This is highly suggestive that they were performing reconnaissance of, rather than for, the rebels. The Rebels reaction to finding them, is highly suggestive that they took a very similar view, otherwise the thing would have been resolved quickly and never make the public arena. There are after all, only a limited number of likely beneficiaries of such intelligence.

Leaders may not like Gadaffi, but he is reliable from an Oil production perspective, as with up to 100000 international oil workers and dozens of companies operating in Libya until the revolt, the country never made the news for "production problems".

I guess also that the rebels are too much of an unknown, composed of largely hostile nationalists as well as Islamists , all of a less than concise cohesion.

Better then the devil you know, especially when held by such advantage!
 
MwRYum

MwRYum

Major
SampanViking said:
I more I read on this story, the more my suspicion grows that the West has cut a deal with Gadaffi and that continued talk of no fly zones and support for the rebels is simply hubris.

Clearly the West has Gadaffi by the short and curlies and can demand significant concessions from him, in order to buy his survival. By contrast, they would have no such leverage with the rebels, who; if victorious, would hold a moral authority that would make them untouchable and able to renegotiate upwards any Oil contract agreed by the Gadaffi regime, with total impunity.

The SAS and their "diplomat" were captured several hundred miles east of any known Government forces and in the heart of rebel controlled territory. This is highly suggestive that they were performing reconnaissance of, rather than for, the rebels. The Rebels reaction to finding them, is highly suggestive that they took a very similar view, otherwise the thing would have been resolved quickly and never make the public arena. There are after all, only a limited number of likely beneficiaries of such intelligence.

Leaders may not like Gadaffi, but he is reliable from an Oil production perspective, as with up to 100000 international oil workers and dozens of companies operating in Libya until the revolt, the country never made the news for "production problems".

I guess also that the rebels are too much of an unknown, composed of largely hostile nationalists as well as Islamists , all of a less than concise cohesion.

Better then the devil you know, especially when held by such advantage!
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Logical, consider the oil price shot above USD 100 mark, the West - if not the world in general - interest is to have it come down as soon as possible, but who'd be the best to deal with?

Gaddafi maybe a despot but you'd know who to talk to, have an organised military (competency is another thing) and government;

Or the rebels are dis-organised at most, no clear and solid leadership, poorly armed and supplied, got minutemen for soldiers, lacks the cadre that'd need to run a modern oil-producing nation.

It's clear as to whom the world's governments would put their chips on. The citizens may sympathetic to the anti-Gaddafi movement, the "Facebook revolution", but let's see what'd happen if we tell them should this drag on, $8/gallon at the pump will be least of the pinch they are going to feel.

Sad as it is, we all need to deal with devils sometime or the other.
 
M

mobydog

Junior Member
Gaddafi a despot ? Says who ? "free Media"? I thought Libya has highest per capital income among African states. I am not saying he's an angel or anything like that.. but look around the region. Why Egypt, Saudi, UAE etc.. gets looked over, but Libya being targeted ?

I see the Serbia, Iraq, Panama, Venezuela and Iran theme coming up. Selling an war for the control of oil.

Still very strange is that Israeli company has provided Gaddafi with 50,000 African mercenaries, meanwhile the United States demanded the UN Security Council (UNSC) to remove the provisions of charging mercenaries with war crimes in the killing of Libyan civilians. I mean the "Free Media" didn't report this fact.

So is US supporting Gaddafi or the rebels ? while pushing for no-fly zones and beating the war drums. I'm confused.
 
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