FarkTypeSoldier
Junior Member
Apaprently, the air force pilots refuse to bomb the rebels and seek in Malta...
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The Civil War in Libya
- Thread starter solarz
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Apaprently, the air force pilots refuse to bomb the rebels and seek in Malta...
IronsightSniper
Junior Member
If the UN does seek to create a no-fly-zone over Libya, that would pretty much stomp down Gaddafi's advantage.
MwRYum
Major
Yeah, but how long it'd take before those old farts at the Security Council hammer down on such a resolution? Would that be done before the lose alliance of the anti-Gaddafi forces start to break apart, or to be exact, before Gaddafi's loyalists get their acts together and get some real victory?
Y'know, rebellion like this now reach the classical Mexican standoff, but things would slide fast to one side if that side able to achieve a significant victory...a key military base, a city, a refinery, stuff like that. Then the losing side will begin to show falter in morale, especially so if they ain't a unified front, but a lose alliance of necessity.
I must say, to me it seems the revolution has held it's ground pretty firm so far. While pro Gadaffi forces may have retaken a certain oilfield, or airbase or habour, from what I can read the revolution forces were able to fend off major counter attacks on cities that even included air strikes. While they were able to make some progress elsewhere. But the situation really remains nebulous. So far it's pretty much a stalemate I guess. I wonder how much more resources Gaddafi can muster and how his logistical situation actually is.
A no-fly-zone would indeed help the revolution I guess, especially if it's supported by aid missions, boosting morale.
But as has been said by USAF generals, such a mission, if the UN or NATO would find their way to one, would have to be enforced militarily. Otherwise the pure statement would be useless. And that would mean to actually engage the libyan air force and pretty much shut down what remains of the libyan SAM network, wich would be the far bigger task actually. So far I can not see the will to go that far. And the impact of the preception of foreign intervention in Libya is also not to be underestimated.
If the opposition can get together maybe they can at least try to negotiate some logistical outside help.
A no-fly-zone would indeed help the revolution I guess, especially if it's supported by aid missions, boosting morale.
But as has been said by USAF generals, such a mission, if the UN or NATO would find their way to one, would have to be enforced militarily. Otherwise the pure statement would be useless. And that would mean to actually engage the libyan air force and pretty much shut down what remains of the libyan SAM network, wich would be the far bigger task actually. So far I can not see the will to go that far. And the impact of the preception of foreign intervention in Libya is also not to be underestimated.
If the opposition can get together maybe they can at least try to negotiate some logistical outside help.
pugachev_diver
Banned Idiot
I don't really care what's happening in Libya, since the American carrier strike groups are nearby. What's going to happen is the same in other South American nations, one dictator gets pushed over and the Americans raise another puppet government. The new one is probably going to be just ruthless as the old one, if not worse.
The rebels are poorly organized and don't have many heavy weapons, but they have plenty of fighting spirit and enough small arms to field, in most cities, a few hundred to a few thousand soldiers. Many have military grade weaponry, and they're supported by lots of civilians taking potshots with hunting rifles, shotguns, pistols, Molotov cocktails, etc. I haven't seen much evidence of the rebels effectively using the tanks and heavy machine guns that they apparently have captured. Their forces have no chain of command but they seem to be able to fight competently.
For example, yesterday the government forces attacked the city of Brega (a smallish place with a strategic port/oil facility and an airstrip about halfway between Tripoli and Benghazi). They quickly took the port, the oil facilities and a university, which as far as I can tell on Google Earth are all on the eastern side of the city a bit away from the more populated areas. From watching videos of the fighting, it seemed that the government forces attempted to press the assault into the denser areas of the city and were pushed back. At some point the rebels were then able to call in hundreds of reinforcements from the next town over, and actually had something like a coordinated assault on the government troops which recaptured the oil facilities and port, then cornered and destroyed some of the government forces on the university campus. My guess is that most of the government troops ran away and that only a platoon or two was actually surrounded and destroyed. To successfully counterattack, the rebels had to advance across open sand dunes under fire from enemy infantry who were on foot and mounted in pick up trucks and possibly other vehicles, as well as sporadic mortars/artillery and even a few ineffective air strikes from a single jet fighter.
To me the course of the battle shows a few things and one of them are good for the government.
First off, the rebels are learning. Videos of the battle show them to be amateurish, but by all accounts they managed to coordinate their actions at some level. They took offensive action. They counterattacked after an initial defeat. These are not things that a mob can do. Most of them don't know it's a terrible idea to point an AK at an enemy hundreds of yards away and let it rip on full auto, but somehow they managed to make a successful infantry assault on a stronger enemy position. Don't underestimate the importance of that. In contests between less-than-professional forces like this one, psychological factors are often the most important thing.
Secondly, we know the rebels are brave. Unlike most irregular, semi-trained forces, they are willing to stand their ground against a superior enemy and take the offensive. They faced an enemy that had far superior firepower and a bit of surprise. They attacked across open ground into some pretty heavy firepower. And there was no one forcing them to do these things. Their morale seems to be very good and their confidence and experience is growing as they win battles. They won't go down without a serious fight now.
This brings me to my third point. The government forces seem to be pretty cowardly and incompetent. No truly professional force that knows how to use firepower should have been pushed out of a defensive position by a bunch of civilians with small arms advancing across open ground, no matter how brave the civilians were. Replace Qaddafi's security forces with professional troops from the US or the PLA and it would have been a massacre. The government troops had access to artillery and mortars and even air strikes. Yet they were defeated. Why did that happen. This is why: corrupt dictatorships generally have pretty bad officers and poorly motivated soldiers. Look at the Arab nations fighting Israel, Saddam's army, South Vietnam, the Guomindang, Tsarist Russia etc. etc. Corrupt and unpopular regimes rarely field effective fighting forces. Mercenaries and hired goons will desert or switch sides rather than fight if they think they're going to get killed. Fighting against your own people makes all these problems even worse. Contrast that with the rebels. They obviously will fight to the end because they are fighting for a cause, and they know they will probably all be massacred if they lose.
Here's some more combat videos.
^That video shows the rebels are still amateurs in many ways. There's about 10x as many guys standing around watching, throwing stuff, chanting and yelling, or talking on their cell phones as their are guys actually shooting at the enemy. I suppose that's what happens though when every young man in town wants to get his cred as being a "mujahideen for the revolution" but there aren't nearly enough guns to go around.
For example, yesterday the government forces attacked the city of Brega (a smallish place with a strategic port/oil facility and an airstrip about halfway between Tripoli and Benghazi). They quickly took the port, the oil facilities and a university, which as far as I can tell on Google Earth are all on the eastern side of the city a bit away from the more populated areas. From watching videos of the fighting, it seemed that the government forces attempted to press the assault into the denser areas of the city and were pushed back. At some point the rebels were then able to call in hundreds of reinforcements from the next town over, and actually had something like a coordinated assault on the government troops which recaptured the oil facilities and port, then cornered and destroyed some of the government forces on the university campus. My guess is that most of the government troops ran away and that only a platoon or two was actually surrounded and destroyed. To successfully counterattack, the rebels had to advance across open sand dunes under fire from enemy infantry who were on foot and mounted in pick up trucks and possibly other vehicles, as well as sporadic mortars/artillery and even a few ineffective air strikes from a single jet fighter.
To me the course of the battle shows a few things and one of them are good for the government.
First off, the rebels are learning. Videos of the battle show them to be amateurish, but by all accounts they managed to coordinate their actions at some level. They took offensive action. They counterattacked after an initial defeat. These are not things that a mob can do. Most of them don't know it's a terrible idea to point an AK at an enemy hundreds of yards away and let it rip on full auto, but somehow they managed to make a successful infantry assault on a stronger enemy position. Don't underestimate the importance of that. In contests between less-than-professional forces like this one, psychological factors are often the most important thing.
Secondly, we know the rebels are brave. Unlike most irregular, semi-trained forces, they are willing to stand their ground against a superior enemy and take the offensive. They faced an enemy that had far superior firepower and a bit of surprise. They attacked across open ground into some pretty heavy firepower. And there was no one forcing them to do these things. Their morale seems to be very good and their confidence and experience is growing as they win battles. They won't go down without a serious fight now.
This brings me to my third point. The government forces seem to be pretty cowardly and incompetent. No truly professional force that knows how to use firepower should have been pushed out of a defensive position by a bunch of civilians with small arms advancing across open ground, no matter how brave the civilians were. Replace Qaddafi's security forces with professional troops from the US or the PLA and it would have been a massacre. The government troops had access to artillery and mortars and even air strikes. Yet they were defeated. Why did that happen. This is why: corrupt dictatorships generally have pretty bad officers and poorly motivated soldiers. Look at the Arab nations fighting Israel, Saddam's army, South Vietnam, the Guomindang, Tsarist Russia etc. etc. Corrupt and unpopular regimes rarely field effective fighting forces. Mercenaries and hired goons will desert or switch sides rather than fight if they think they're going to get killed. Fighting against your own people makes all these problems even worse. Contrast that with the rebels. They obviously will fight to the end because they are fighting for a cause, and they know they will probably all be massacred if they lose.
Here's some more combat videos.
^That video shows the rebels are still amateurs in many ways. There's about 10x as many guys standing around watching, throwing stuff, chanting and yelling, or talking on their cell phones as their are guys actually shooting at the enemy. I suppose that's what happens though when every young man in town wants to get his cred as being a "mujahideen for the revolution" but there aren't nearly enough guns to go around.
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It seems the situation is escalating further into multiple major confrontations. Gaddafi forces are said to have engaged some cities with armor and were shelling complete neighbourhoods. From what I can find, however, it looks like revolution forces were able to repell those army attacks. Now that are really pretty amazing feats. Although they have access to military weapons and maybe even rudimentary training by defected army personal, repelling battalion sized attacks with armor really shows a lot of fighting spirit. And still there's reports of important places falling into the hands of the rebels.
Some reports also suggest that a stalemate starts to appear.
Then there's reports that NATO troops are moving into a port city of Crete I think. There's some 400 US Marines and allegedly SOF from several nations. Air assats are also on the move. The UK and France are preparing a no-fly zone resolution to the UNSC it was said.
Some state leaders also said there are military options if aggression is used against civilians. I wonder if that's all just show of force or if something is really about to happen. What I could imagine at most is maybe strikes agaist selected targets. SAM assats, airfields and maybe some interdiction / close air support missions. These would probably help the most. Maybe some advisers to train local forces, although that would go really far, putting boots on libyan ground.
Some reports also suggest that a stalemate starts to appear.
Then there's reports that NATO troops are moving into a port city of Crete I think. There's some 400 US Marines and allegedly SOF from several nations. Air assats are also on the move. The UK and France are preparing a no-fly zone resolution to the UNSC it was said.
Some state leaders also said there are military options if aggression is used against civilians. I wonder if that's all just show of force or if something is really about to happen. What I could imagine at most is maybe strikes agaist selected targets. SAM assats, airfields and maybe some interdiction / close air support missions. These would probably help the most. Maybe some advisers to train local forces, although that would go really far, putting boots on libyan ground.
It seems that both sides have settled on basic strategies for now.
Qaddafi is consolidating his hold in the West by taking on the weakest targets first. Earlier this week, he used his elite forces to take over several small mountain towns south of Tripoli. Now they've massed to assault Zawiyah, west of Tripoli. From what I've read, the battle there was a see-saw back and forth. The rebels were pushed back by an initial attack by the Libyan Army's Khamis Brigade (one of the only decently trained and armed units in the Libyan Army, basically the personal militia of Qaddafi's son). They managed to regain much of the city throughout the day, but then the Army attacked again, with more artillery and air power and armor. That advantage was unanswerable and most of the city was overrun.
Seems to me that Qaddafi realizes how important it is that he be perceived as strong. People will switch sides very fast if they think he is going down. By taking out weaker rebel strongholds and saving the main rebel forces in the east of the country for later, he scores victories that he can use to make people think "Well maybe Qaddafi isn't so weak after all, I shouldn't side against him". That's the most important thing for him to do right now. I'd reckon there have been lots of civilian casualties in the fighting in Zawiyah. The rebels should make every effort to cry bloody murder and get those dead and wounded in front of the cameras. That should move the international community a bit closer to action if there's phrase like "the Zawiyah massacre" to focus the media narrative on. That might not be possible though considering the government controls access to the city.
The rebels, for their part, launched an assault on the small oil town of Ras Lanouf. Look at it on Google Earth, the town itself is a tiny place. Small population but a big port and even bigger oil facility. It probably wasn't very well defended, especially as Qaddafi seems to be concentrating his better forces on Zawiyah in the west. It's one of the several "checkpoints" on the route to Tripoli. That seems to be the rebel's plan. It's not a complicated one. Just assault each city along the coast road to Tripoli one by one. They're probably not capable of anything more elegant without more organization.
Qaddafi is consolidating his hold in the West by taking on the weakest targets first. Earlier this week, he used his elite forces to take over several small mountain towns south of Tripoli. Now they've massed to assault Zawiyah, west of Tripoli. From what I've read, the battle there was a see-saw back and forth. The rebels were pushed back by an initial attack by the Libyan Army's Khamis Brigade (one of the only decently trained and armed units in the Libyan Army, basically the personal militia of Qaddafi's son). They managed to regain much of the city throughout the day, but then the Army attacked again, with more artillery and air power and armor. That advantage was unanswerable and most of the city was overrun.
Seems to me that Qaddafi realizes how important it is that he be perceived as strong. People will switch sides very fast if they think he is going down. By taking out weaker rebel strongholds and saving the main rebel forces in the east of the country for later, he scores victories that he can use to make people think "Well maybe Qaddafi isn't so weak after all, I shouldn't side against him". That's the most important thing for him to do right now. I'd reckon there have been lots of civilian casualties in the fighting in Zawiyah. The rebels should make every effort to cry bloody murder and get those dead and wounded in front of the cameras. That should move the international community a bit closer to action if there's phrase like "the Zawiyah massacre" to focus the media narrative on. That might not be possible though considering the government controls access to the city.
The rebels, for their part, launched an assault on the small oil town of Ras Lanouf. Look at it on Google Earth, the town itself is a tiny place. Small population but a big port and even bigger oil facility. It probably wasn't very well defended, especially as Qaddafi seems to be concentrating his better forces on Zawiyah in the west. It's one of the several "checkpoints" on the route to Tripoli. That seems to be the rebel's plan. It's not a complicated one. Just assault each city along the coast road to Tripoli one by one. They're probably not capable of anything more elegant without more organization.
Geographer
Junior Member
Good analysis, Finn McCool. This is an amazing war, classic African civil war with the scenery of the World War II North Africa campaign. It is impressive how the rebels have fought back Gadhafi's force in several cities--Brega and Ras Lanouf most notably. Today it looks like his forces took Zawiya 30 km from Tripoli. I admire the courage, spontaneity, and civic pride the Libyans are displaying in taking up arms and taking immense risks for their cause.
I hope no foreign forces intervene, this is a Libyan war, by and for Libyans. They can win if they organize and keep morale high. But victory is not imminent, and there is a real possibility they could lose, which raises the stakes even higher. There will be terrible retribution against the rebels if they lose. The same goes for Gadhafi's supporters if the rebels win.
Gadhafi looked weak and ineffectual for the first two weeks of the revolution, losing on all fronts, but he seems to have buckled down, dug his heels into the hand, and started fighting back. There have been fewer defections in the last few days, indicating that those who remain are solidly with Gadhafi. He has stopped the bleeding. Gadhafi's point-man for the West, his son Saif al-Islam, has backed the government and is probably one of the more competent leaders on his side. I am not seeing a lot of leadership on the rebel side, but it is very early to tell.
If the rebels keep wasting ammunition as we see in videos with the celebratory firing and reckless shooting, Gadhafi could outlast them purely on ammunition. I wonder if foreign intelligence services will start supplying the rebels with ammo if it looks grim.
I hope no foreign forces intervene, this is a Libyan war, by and for Libyans. They can win if they organize and keep morale high. But victory is not imminent, and there is a real possibility they could lose, which raises the stakes even higher. There will be terrible retribution against the rebels if they lose. The same goes for Gadhafi's supporters if the rebels win.
Gadhafi looked weak and ineffectual for the first two weeks of the revolution, losing on all fronts, but he seems to have buckled down, dug his heels into the hand, and started fighting back. There have been fewer defections in the last few days, indicating that those who remain are solidly with Gadhafi. He has stopped the bleeding. Gadhafi's point-man for the West, his son Saif al-Islam, has backed the government and is probably one of the more competent leaders on his side. I am not seeing a lot of leadership on the rebel side, but it is very early to tell.
If the rebels keep wasting ammunition as we see in videos with the celebratory firing and reckless shooting, Gadhafi could outlast them purely on ammunition. I wonder if foreign intelligence services will start supplying the rebels with ammo if it looks grim.
plawolf
Lieutenant General
Well, things just get more strange and confusing as apparently an eight man SAS teams has been seized by the rebels, apparently trying to get a British diplomatic mission in touch with rebel leaders.
IF this story is true, then that would make it a very strange development, as presumably the SAS team and diplomatic mission is there to try and establish lines of communication to open the way for British support for the rebels. You would expect the rebels to welcome such a mission with open arms instead of small arms.
IF this story is true, then that would make it a very strange development, as presumably the SAS team and diplomatic mission is there to try and establish lines of communication to open the way for British support for the rebels. You would expect the rebels to welcome such a mission with open arms instead of small arms.