The Civil War in Libya

mwryum your argument does have some validity to it. however remember gadaffi's force is still 100miles away from benghazi, even if they were to conduct close combat to avoid airstrikes, their supply line will remain vulnerable, which means their attack will not be sustainable. and even if by some miracle that they manage to inflict unbearable loss on the rebels, the rebels will simply withdraw from benghazi and fall back closer to the egyptian border. losing benghazi would have been a fatal blow, but the UN resolution changed the entire political calculus.

as for the actual implementation of no-fly zone, it'll come fast, cuz US battlegroups are already in position and europe isnt far away. the only concern is the arab commitment, but then again their investment only has to be nominal.

and remember the UN resolution provides a super broad definition that allows airstrike on ground targets that are not necessary to enforce a no-fly zone. armour and artillery are not immune. and IMHO their wording is kinda rigged, since they sorta hinted that rebel forces are considered civilians...which isnt really "fair" if you will.

I think the US was expecting the motion to be vetoed, especially when it was toughened up to include general ground attack.

It seems the abstainers; China, Russia, Germany, India and Brazil, have decided that they do not want to be the fall guys in the spin war and so have called Americas bluff!

The west has to my mind, been caught off guard, unprepared and now stuck with an obligation it does not want. Foot dragging a gogo will be the order of the day.

It will also raise some very uncomfortable questions with an exceedingly uncomfortable precedent regarding Bahrain.....

I think SampanViking hits the nail on the head. The scenario's presented above would maximize the number of civilian casualties, just as in the interventions in the late Yugoslavia. If that happens Sarkozy &c. should be hauled to The Hague to stand trial at the International Criminal Court.

In the US the populace, myself included, has no taste for any military action against Libya. A recent poll stated only 23% of those polled approved of any military action against Libya.

I can't believe it but I agree,somewhat, with SampanViking posted in post #102.

Libya declared a ceasefire. Gaddafi is a lot smarter than many people give him credit for. If the West starts bombing Libya now, there will be an uproar at the UN.

Question is, what will Libya's future be, with the rebels stuck in one city? Will we be seeing another round of protests, this time backed by foreign military?

bd popeye said:

In the US the populace, myself included, has no taste for any military action against Libya. A recent poll stated only 23% of those polled approved of any military action against Libya.

I can't believe it but I agree,somewhat, with SampanViking posted in post #102.

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I can't believe it either, which is why I have printed your post, framed it and hung it over my fireplace!

that's some super fast reaction there, its a reasonable one but didnt expect it to come so soon LoL...

this is becoming real interesting now

with regards to popeye's statement, i like how 85% of cnn voters think there should be a no-fly zone...but just not enforced by American navy. the truth is, unless italyand egypt are willing to open up airspace, US carrier group will be needed to sustain the effort...

with regards to popeye's statement, i like how 85% of cnn voters think there should be a no-fly zone...but just not enforced by American navy. the truth is, unless italyand egypt are willing to open up airspace, US carrier group will be needed to sustain the effort.

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85%? just the other day I swear I heard an poll that said only 23% of Americans polled were in favor of any US military action in Libya.. Maybe I was mistaken..Oh well. I must admit I'm in favor of limited involvement of a no-fly zone particularly if Qaddafi forces are attacking civilians.

US carrier group will be needed to sustain the effort

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And guess what? there's none available..unless the CVN-77 is deployed early. Or if one of the four CVNs now deployed is re-positioned. Wait and see!

So it appears that there is no Carrier to take a lead and the Europeans are only just starting to get there act together.



Libya 'to halt military action'

Those countries taking part in the coalition still need to decide who leads this mission, and what action they will take if the ceasefire breaks down.

It is not yet clear who the commander of the operation will be, where it will be headquartered and what Nato assets might be used.

The fact that the British Prime Minister is going to France tomorrow could be an indication that, having taken the diplomatic lead on recognising the rebels, France is also keen to take a military lead.

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So despite pushing for a resolution, which is (let us not beat about the bush) technically a declaration of war, those pushing have not agreed a force, a mission or a command structure and have not yet started preparing forward airbases from which the missions will be flown. In short a complete horlicks and one that just reinforces the notion that the parties were so convinced that the UN Resolution would fail, that they did not even bother going through the motions of preparation and organisation.

Gadaffi has played a smart card in his cease fire as a Nato; no matter how unwilling, would be able to galvanise its response in the wake of a breach by Gadaffi of the Resolution order. Instead a coalition of the unwilling will be trying to cobble together a mission for a situation that is not actually happening. Under such conditions, the mission is in danger of actually falling apart before it is put together. This will be something no doubt that Gadaffi is hoping for.

Ah ha! I found a poll with similar results that I thought I heard..



It was >>> 65% against 25% in favor and 9% unsure