Taiwan's Reaction to PLA Force Modernization

fishhead said:

Only China and US know it's a bluff or not. All important components are from US anyway.

Nuclear war is the active option for China definitely, which is hinted by Chinese military and discussed many times already.

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But the change ingredient would be that there are now ROC missiles that can reach and destroy much of Southern China if they have the warheads to go on them. I do not believe the PRC would take down the ROC in such a fashion at such horrendous cost to themselves...which in effect would mark the end of the PRC as well.

If the ROC has nukes to put on these new missiles, the playing field is much more level and the threat of war will subside IMHO. Whatever else the leaders of China may be, I do not believe they are madmen fanatics that will bring death toall they have tried to build.

Just my opinion.

Jeff Head said:

But the change ingredient would be that there are now ROC missiles that can reach and destroy much of Southern China if they have the warheads to go on them. I do not believe the PRC would take down the ROC in such a fashion at such horrendous cost to themselves...which in effect would mark the end of the PRC as well.

If the ROC has nukes to put on these new missiles, the playing field is much more level and the threat of war will subside IMHO. Whatever else the leaders of China may be, I do not believe they are madmen fanatics that will bring death toall they have tried to build.

Just my opinion.

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Taiwan is a very small place. A big thermal strike basically eliminates all the possibility of their launch capability, even their whole population. And China can stand couple of nuke strikes slipped out.

Also we know where they get nuke if they really get some, then the whole world see many countries will have some, with Chinese trade marks.

This is the terror balance, btwn China and US, not with Taiwan.

And Taiwan is also pretty close to the Delta area, the economic hub of China. Have you ever studied radiation fallout? I would suggest that you look at the wind patterns in the area.


On a side note. What really should worry all posters here is not that the Chinese are willing to use nukes, but the fact that the US of A might already have achieved nuclear primacy.

fishhead said:

Only China and US know it's a bluff or not. All important components are from US anyway.

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But until the US stops selling Taiwan the parts it needs to make the HF-IIE, it can continue making them. Also if China attacks there is no reason why Taiwan would not attack Chinese bases/installations.

Nuclear war is the active option for China definitely, which is hinted by Chinese military and discussed many times already.

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China may think it's an option (it could do it), but it would still be a highly stupid course of action.

Taiwan is a very small place. A big thermal strike basically eliminates all the possibility of their launch capability, even their whole population. And China can stand couple of nuke strikes slipped out.

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China would have to use up a fair number of warheads to wipe Taiwan off the map.

Plus there's also the problem of what other countries would do in response. It's not inconceivable that another nuclear power like Russia might panic and decide it would be best to try to de-claw China, given it had shown itself willing to use nuclear weapons to kill tens of millions of people. At the very least, even if the response was non-nuclear (even non-military), China would suffer from the diplomatic and economic fallout world-wide. It would also result in Japan shredding Article 9 and becoming a nuclear power - South Korea might go the same way too.

OK, let's stop arguing stupid or smart, right or wrong issue, which are nonsense.

Chinese don't treat Taiwan WMD capability as an issue of Taiwan, just like west don't think OBL WMD capability as Muslim's effort.

It's a balanced world, it will bring out a hell of terror on this world if somebody stupid tries to play it. No question about it.

fishhead said:

Chinese don't treat Taiwan WMD capability as an issue of Taiwan, just like west don't think OBL WMD capability as Muslim's effort.

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But you implied China would be willing to nuke all of Taiwan - that would be like the US wiping every Muslim country off the face of the planet to finish off Al-Qaeda.

FuManChu said:

But you implied China would be willing to nuke all of Taiwan - that would be like the US wiping every Muslim country off the face of the planet to finish off Al-Qaeda.

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LOL, that's exactly right. China only needs to wipe out a Taiwan if things don't go right, while US needs to wipe out the whole Muslim world.

So Chinese really care less, many countries/people want Chinese nukes in this world.

I have no doubt that even China attacks Taiwan tomorrow, US can't do much about it. China has hell of means to turn this world up side down. Fighting with a big nuclear power is nightmire for the whole world, unless nobody in the west want to live anymore.

The people in the west're qutie dumb and stupid, brainwashed by their own propaganda, never realize how foolish they're to believe they can defend Taiwan.

But the change ingredient would be that there are now ROC missiles that can reach and destroy much of Southern China if they have the warheads to go on them. I do not believe the PRC would take down the ROC in such a fashion at such horrendous cost to themselves...which in effect would mark the end of the PRC as well.

If the ROC has nukes to put on these new missiles, the playing field is much more level and the threat of war will subside IMHO. Whatever else the leaders of China may be, I do not believe they are madmen fanatics that will bring death toall they have tried to build.

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It wouldn't level the playing field, just put ROC and US at a major disadvantage.
The communist party is not monolithic by any means. There is no Chinese leader can survive the prospect of an independent Taiwan. As far as the Chinese concern, it is a continuation of their civil war that never ended in the first place. If ROC actually get nukes, it would be nightmare for Japan and US. In the short run, it hurts the PRC, but it is also a slap in the face to US's non-proliferation treaty. Remember, DPRK did not get their nuke technology from China, they got it from the rogue scientist from Pakistan. If US did not do anything and watch it happen, in a few years, everybody will get nukes with the Chinese help. It will certainly degrade any military advantage US has over other nations. Imagine US send its aircraft carriers to attack Iran and getting hit back by a couple of nuclear bombs(torpedo+missiles). Or Americans wake up one day and heard LA, or New York getting hit by a nuclear suicide bombers. US would not let it happen, they will have to saunction ROC, both military and economic.

It is just like the North Korea nuclear crisis. Before the bomb test, it was the US's problem, China even wanted US talk to the DPRK directly. But after the bomb get tested, it become a Chinese problem...

fishhead said:

LOL, that's exactly right. China only needs to wipe out a Taiwan if things don't go right, while US needs to wipe out the whole Muslim world.

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"Only"? You think the murder of 23 million people is a trivial matter? God, you're disgusting.

So Chinese really care less, many countries/people want Chinese nukes in this world.

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Not if China is going to use them to wipe out entire countries.

I have no doubt that even China attacks Taiwan tomorrow, US can't do much about it. China has hell of means to turn this world up side down. Fighting with a big nuclear power is nightmire for the whole world, unless nobody in the west want to live anymore.

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The US could easily do a lot about it. The idea that China can act with impunity is only held by nationalist morons with brains the size of peas.

The people in the west're qutie dumb and stupid, brainwashed by their own propaganda, never realize how foolish they're to believe they can defend Taiwan.

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You're talking absolute rubbish. Did your mother drop you on your head when you were a kid? I can't think of anyone on this forum with much credibility that believes the US would be powerless to stop an invasion of Taiwan. Whenever the issue has been raised, the clever people here have just about all said the US can respond. You think you know better than all of them?