Taiwan plans to build 500 cruise missiles

IMO Chen wants to leave some legacy to his Presidency before leaving office.

Why else would anyone bother to scrap the National Unification Council, which was already dead and didnt' even have budget to buy a newspaper? It's like re-animating a dead corpse to become a walking zombie.

KYli said:

The simple fact is Chen is a politician not an idealist. An idealist will say and do things as they believe, and politician will do things that will benefict them the most.

Click to expand...

Chen is an idealist AND a politician. So sadly one side has to win over the other sometimes. It is quite clear that Chen wants Taiwan to have formal recognition internationally of Taiwan's independence. He would probably declare it tomorrow if he felt he could. But he also knows that would probably provoke the mainland into launching a military strike and the US might not back him up - and regardless of whether it did, lots of people would die.

It's a bit like the Taiwanese people themselves. If China just said "ok, you decide what to do - there's no pressure on you anymore", I can promise that most would vote for formal independence. But because China threatens to end the status quo and potentially wreck what they enjoy now, the majority does not support such an action currently.

Chen is a politician with strong ideals over Taiwanese independence. But just because he has those ideals does not make him suicidal.

Hi Fumanchu

I think Adeptitus and Sampanking sum it up pretty well Chen true intention in this matter.

Chen may has been somewhat an idealist, but truely this is a political move. It has nothing to do with idealist. As adeptitus said chen may want to leave some legacy before he leaves office, and like sampanviking said he want to provoke PRC and made KMT in a defensive postition, also I will say Chen true intention is also trying to rally the core-independent groups behide him. Ever Since he suffered a humiliate defeat in election, and losing support from both radical and moderate independent groups. Chen has been in a hotseat that many of his allies are turning against him, he had no choice but to do something radical so he will not be broken leg postition in the rest of his term.

Actually Chen do has his chance on the independent movement, but he cares more about his politcial future So he did not went as far as many pro-independent activites hope, and many people are turning against him now because he did a terrible job on economic.

If you has ever look careful on the Chen changing stance on many issues, chen only become very radical when he was in trouble. A true idealist will never be only active on his believe when he is in weak position. Whether idealists do tend to be more firm on their stance, and only be moderate when pressure was put on them. But for the many years I fellow the news, I only see a man who will do anything for votes but not an idealist that do things as they believe.

I do not think Chen is ever suicidal, but whether not a man who keep his words to his supporters or the rest of World.

And about the rest of your post, I will restrant myself from comments. I just want to say I have difference opinions in that matter.

Well I think we can see how China intends to react.

It is of course pleased that it seems to have Chen fairly Isolated with all governments, serious commentators and opion makers opposing any Unilateral change to the Status Quo.

China has had talks with senior UN officials on this, as well as those from the EU and US.

My best guess is that China is going to say that the Status Quo is unchanged unless the International Community recognises any of Chens announcements (and of course that the Opposition remain firmly opposed). This means even if Chen declared Formal Independance, no one would recognise it, meaning it would exist only in his own mind.

This way, the Staus Quo is technically unchanged, Chen can say and do whatever he likes without risking the Anti-Secession Act, and things tick along with further CCP/Pan Blue contacts for the next two years until Chen leaves office.

SampanViking said:

Well I think we can see how China intends to react.

It is of course pleased that it seems to have Chen fairly Isolated with all governments, serious commentators and opion makers opposing any Unilateral change to the Status Quo.

China has had talks with senior UN officials on this, as well as those from the EU and US.

My best guess is that China is going to say that the Status Quo is unchanged unless the International Community recognises any of Chens announcements (and of course that the Opposition remain firmly opposed). This means even if Chen declared Formal Independance, no one would recognise it, meaning it would exist only in his own mind.

This way, the Staus Quo is technically unchanged, Chen can say and do whatever he likes without risking the Anti-Secession Act, and things tick along with further CCP/Pan Blue contacts for the next two years until Chen leaves office.

Click to expand...

So essentially Chen is left to play in his sandbox.

What would happen if Chen acted in a way designed to break out of his isolation ? It would have to be something FAIRLY substantial

SampanViking said:

Well I think we can see how China intends to react.

It is of course pleased that it seems to have Chen fairly Isolated with all governments, serious commentators and opion makers opposing any Unilateral change to the Status Quo.

China has had talks with senior UN officials on this, as well as those from the EU and US.

My best guess is that China is going to say that the Status Quo is unchanged unless the International Community recognises any of Chens announcements (and of course that the Opposition remain firmly opposed). This means even if Chen declared Formal Independance, no one would recognise it, meaning it would exist only in his own mind.

This way, the Staus Quo is technically unchanged, Chen can say and do whatever he likes without risking the Anti-Secession Act, and things tick along with further CCP/Pan Blue contacts for the next two years until Chen leaves office.

Click to expand...

Steps that China must take to counter A-Bian's separatist intentions are:
1. Increase number of SRBMs aimed at Taiwan annually from 90 to 200 so that the PLA will have 2,000 SRBMs aimed at Taiwan by 2012.
2. Accelerate development of new design destroyers, subs, and frigates to prepare for 2010-2015 amphibious landing on Taiwan.
3. Deploy new satelites with 10 metre resolution to monitor Taiwanese nuclear reactors and PAC-3/ HF-3 LACM missile sites.
4. Increase production of UAVs to prepare for air superiority over Taiwan Strait.
5. Deploy extra 100 MRBMs with more than 2,000km range out of HF-3 firing range and equip those MRBMs with HE warheads and terminal guidance and GPS/Galileo guidance so to have CEP at 50 metres or less and aim all at Taiwanese Air Force bases and missile sites.

I think that the Taiwain issue is one that needs to be settled diplomatically. Otherwise any other form of military action or show of force will possibly lead to a large regional conflict. And for China to respond to Taiwan's actions by just building bigger better missiles and pointing them at them will just make things worse IMO.

Hello Mr Clean

I

think that the Taiwain issue is one that needs to be settled diplomatically. Otherwise any other form of military action or show of force will possibly lead to a large regional conflict. And for China to respond to Taiwan's actions by just building bigger better missiles and pointing them at them will just make things worse IMO.

Click to expand...

I think it would be difficult to argue with that analysis.

I think we can safely say that any response in line with SU34 suggestion would be precisely waht Mr Chen prays for at bedtime everynight.

Hi FreeAsia

What would happen if Chen acted in a way designed to break out of his isolation ? It would have to be something FAIRLY substantial

Click to expand...

I think anything short of formal UN recognition or both Pan Blue and Pan Green supporting Independance would be quietly ignored. Most of the little places that recognise Taiwan are just looking for handouts and are unlikely to upset Beijing.

Possibly Chen might try military action in the hope of dragging others to his aid, but I think that would be a major miscalculation, especially if PRC simply took a defensive position by response.

In short I think now, the PRC has enough irons in the fire to enable them to show levels of restraint which would be hard to imagine even afew years ago. It should be possible for China to do nothing and let Mr Chen's efforts simply boost support for the Pan Blue parties and enhance China's International reputation as a responsible power.

To re-iterate - it would require now; I beleive, nothing short of Pro Independance Political unamity on Taiwan and formal UN recognition, to provoke a serious military response from the PRC.

Both seem highly unlikely events

SampanViking said:

Hello Mr Clean

I

I think it would be difficult to argue with that analysis.

I think we can safely say that any response in line with SU34 suggestion would be precisely waht Mr Chen prays for at bedtime everynight.

Hi FreeAsia



I think anything short of formal UN recognition or both Pan Blue and Pan Green supporting Independance would be quietly ignored. Most of the little places that recognise Taiwan are just looking for handouts and are unlikely to upset Beijing.

Possibly Chen might try military action in the hope of dragging others to his aid, but I think that would be a major miscalculation, especially if PRC simply took a defensive position by response.

In short I think now, the PRC has enough irons in the fire to enable them to show levels of restraint which would be hard to imagine even afew years ago. It should be possible for China to do nothing and let Mr Chen's efforts simply boost support for the Pan Blue parties and enhance China's International reputation as a responsible power.

To re-iterate - it would require now; I beleive, nothing short of Pro Independance Political unamity on Taiwan and formal UN recognition, to provoke a serious military response from the PRC.

Both seem highly unlikely events

Click to expand...

So essentially Chen is now locked in a box.

What happens if Chen seeks greater military co-operation with Japan ?

FreeAsia2000 said:

So essentially Chen is now locked in a box.

What happens if Chen seeks greater military co-operation with Japan ?

Click to expand...

Chen could still do many things, and he is definite not lock in the box.

Chen had already seek cooperation with Japan, but it is less important for China concern. The biggeest concren for China is what involve between US and Taiwan military cooperation.