Taiwan plans to build 500 cruise missiles

Remember this Fu Man Chu

Chen is trying to rattle his Sabre - well fine, but whilst Sabres rattle, Money Talks.

Elsewhere on this forum (World Section) there are recent pictures from Chechenya. Go and look at them and whilst you look at them meditate on the thought that the majority of people over 25, will: if Independance is denied them, take the conselation prize of being Alive and Solvent.

Chen is bad for business, not just Chinese business, but global business. No one is going to sacrifice the longest period of unbroken global economic growth for a hundred years, just to indulge the fantasies of a Oriental Backwoodsman.

Chen has nowhere to go - hence all the desperate threats, and no one in their right mind; when push comes to shove, is going to follow him into oblivion.

Despite this Fu Man Chu - I have a feeling the world will hear of you again

The problem with discussing anything relating to cross-strait relations is that you will inevitably come across politics...

I am pro-independence, however I disapprove of Chen's actions. Not because China should be "unified" or because of some different versions of history, but because of the most basic and unchangeable thing in the world, which is...

The bottom line. (i.e. money)

Whether or not China's threats to take Taiwan with military force are real or not, an undeniable fact is that China is growing in the global market, whereas Taiwan is shrinking. China has been stunting Taiwan's growth through many ways, such as cheaper labor, more resources, and a strong political position. (Such as forcing other countries to recognize China and not Taiwan)

Simply put, Taiwan will have to integrate its economy with China's if it wants to survive. The current situation is that we (I'm speaking for Taiwan) have no bargaining chips on the table because China is very strong now. The more Taiwan pushes for independence, the more China will repress it, simply because of this : China can, and there's nothing Taiwan can do about it.

Engaging in a cold-war style arms race is simply pointless, as is achieving an uneasy truce if your economy is rapidly shrinking. The bottom line is, people have to eat to survive, and if you want to eat you need money, and if you need money you have to become part of China's economy.

Sure, "freedom and democracy" are powerful motivators, but a sad fact is that if you're not being noticed by the world (for being a great place to make money or a tourist trap) nobody's going to CARE at all if you're independent or part of China.

So in my opinion Taiwan has to quit this futile arms race and integrate the economy into China, not because China's stance is necessarily correct (or Taiwan's for that matter) but that this is the only way for survival, you simply cannot survive without money. Once you have a strong economy again you will at least have a CHANCE at being noticed by the world, and possibly have the ability to say what you need to.

To make an attempt to keep this on topic...

I still am not that positive whether or not these cruise missiles are being built, but as I said earlier in this topic I believe they would indeed even up the odds a bit in the case of a potential cross-strait conflict, but it would only slow down the inevitable.

Mods, if this is too political then please tell me so, I need to make sure what is acceptable and what is not. (But it really is hard to stay away from politics completely...)

well i look this trough my fingers as long as no trolling is conducted...

Hi Zergling

I applaud your mature and rational analysis and hope that it is becoming the majority view on the Island.

I say this without Triumpalisem, but because I want to see this situation resolved peacefully and am a realist.

All to often this situation is argued in the absolutist extremes of Capitulation or Invasion. In fact I think Tiawan is in a strong position to negotiate a very favourable and profitable constitutional, settlement of the whole question. Sadly this unlikely to occur under a DPP Administration, so the sooner this changes, the better for everybody.

Unfortunately I don't know whether or not my current view accurately represents the view of the majority of people in Taiwan.

I've noticed that once you leave a place and look back on it in from a third person perspective you tend to see things differently, actually more clearly in most cases.

When I was in Taiwan I would often take note of the utter disregard the KMT showed for the constitution and democracy, only abiding by the rules when it suited them and ignoring them where it benefitted their opponents. I took it somewhat personally because I felt that if someone could simply mob rule or riot whenever they lost an election then what else was left?

Even when I knew some of the DPP's economic policies were completely f*cked up I still stood behind them simply because I didn't want to see the KMT rewarded for their riots, slander, and hate speech.

But now what I've left the country and have taken a closer look (it's always somewhat easier to see things as an outsider, it may or may not be more accurate) and I've decided it's time to let someone else try out ruling Taiwan (not China) and see if they do a good job, that's one of the pros about democracy, if the ruling party sucks you have the ability to get them out of office.

I don't think Chen is a blinded lunatic who just wants to "ruin great Chinese history", I believe he's an idealist who doesn't yet realize how the real world actually works. The controversial arms budget's money could easily go towards education, or health care. Investing arms against China is simply like throwing money into a black hole.

In short, I STILL do not know if the cruise missiles are true or not, though it sounds somewhat plausible, considering that nearly anything related to defense and money must pass through the pan-blue dominated legislative yuan. There's probably unnecessary because I don't believe China would really attack Taiwan anyway, just heat up the water until it boils by tightening up economically and isolation.

Hi Zergling

Unfortunately I don't know whether or not my current view accurately represents the view of the majority of people in Taiwan.

I've noticed that once you leave a place and look back on it in from a third person perspective you tend to see things differently, actually more clearly in most cases.

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In which case the PRC should provide the funds to enable more Taiwanese to travel

But seriously, I do appreciate the delicatness of your position and how painful arriving at it must be. I know that the similar position with the UK and EU (very different from PRC and ROC is so many fundemental ways) provokes powerful and often contradictory emotions in me.

I agree largly with your assesment with Chen, any possible moment he had has now passed, and something very major would need to happen to the world for it to come again in our lifetimes. I think has deeply humiliated in the last few weeks, so maybe some of that reality will start to sink in.

In short, I STILL do not know if the cruise missiles are true or not, though it sounds somewhat plausible, considering that nearly anything related to defense and money must pass through the pan-blue dominated legislative yuan. There's probably unnecessary because I don't believe China would really attack Taiwan anyway, just heat up the water until it boils by tightening up economically and isolation

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.

Oh undoubtedly true, the dangerous factor would be International reaction. If other countries (important ones) were to recognise Taiwan and promise assistance, then I think the PRC would feel it had no option but to take the most drastic action. But I will reiterate, I think the likelihood of this scenario has already receeded far enough to longer be regarded as a serious possibility, and will only receed further in the forrseeable future.

I think Zergling made some very valid points.

IMO ROC citizens today are far less ignorant of the conditons in China, than they were under martial-law era. In 2004, it's estimated that 3.68 million ROC nationals visited the PRC, and 750,000 to 1 million+ Taiwanese reside in China, with 300,000 in Shanghai area alone. I had a (Taiwanese) aunt who lived in Shanghai for a year.

In contrast, only 30,000 PRC nationals visited ROC in 2004, and ROC government restricts number of "mainland brides" to 3,600 annually.

To have a peaceful solution (and comprimise) to the PRC-ROC dispute, I think it's necessary for both sides to have a better understanding of each other. I'm hoping that if Ma Ying Jiu wins the Presidental Election in 2008, he'd push for less restrictions on PRC visitors, and invite more tourists & academics (from China) to visit Taiwan.

If people from both PRC and ROC can freely travel, do business, and reside (reasonable immigration requirements) in each other's territory, then the dispute over "reunification" will become irrevelent in time. It's a far better solution than spending billions of your tax payer's dollars to enrich foreign arms dealers, or point hundreds of cruise missiles at each other.

Hi Adeptitus

Seems a while since we last spoke

If people from both PRC and ROC can freely travel, do business, and reside (reasonable immigration requirements) in each other's territory, then the dispute over "reunification" will become irrevelent in time. It's a far better solution than spending billions of your tax payer's dollars to enrich foreign arms dealers, or point hundreds of cruise missiles at each other

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This is probably at the heart of the entire problem. The question people should be asking is just how much are these travel restrictions actually costing both sides in terms of lost opportunity.

I would hope that the next ROC Govt would end the ban on direct flights on day one and immigration relaxed shortly afterwards. I think we could then see that $300 Billion Annual Taiwanese Trade Surplus with PRC grow quite significantly over a relatively few years.

SampanViking said:

This is probably at the heart of the entire problem. The question people should be asking is just how much are these travel restrictions actually costing both sides in terms of lost opportunity.

I would hope that the next ROC Govt would end the ban on direct flights on day one and immigration relaxed shortly afterwards. I think we could then see that $300 Billion Annual Taiwanese Trade Surplus with PRC grow quite significantly over a relatively few years.

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Hi SampanViking,

No offence, but if I am not wrong, the ROC only had 30 billion trade surplus .

All of posts above have great points, cross strait trade has been great benefit for both ROC and PRC. If travel restrictions and immigration relaxed shortly, that would make peaceful compromise much more real.

I strongly agree that cross-strait travel and immigration would help relations quite a bit, and many people have criticized President Chen for not completely opening things up already.

From an outsider's view it is certainly easy to criticize him, however when China tends to treat Taiwan like second-class citizens Chen (and many citizens of Taiwan) tend to get defensive, and when you get defensive you tend to do irrational things, like banning cross strait travel. (Though it's not banned, that was just an analogy)