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adeptitus

Captain
VIP Professional
"The French are good cooks, but don't make reliable allies -- they're quick to switch positions." :eek:ff

Ok then... can you explain us, Pal? I am all ears! :coffee:

Quoting Charles de Gaulle, "France has no friends, only interests." A look at France's post-WW2 foreign policy flip-flops will give insight to its tract record.
 
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Mr T

Senior Member
France has been one of the countries lobbying for Europe to lift the arms sales ban on China.....

In a nutshell, the fact that France seems to be willing to sell weapons to both Taiwan and China is problematic

Yeah, there's been lobbying from France during Chirac and Sarkozy's terms in office. But there isn't going to be any change on European policy any time in the foreseeable future. Germany opposes a lifting of the embargo but has sold engines for submarines to China. Unless there have been no such sales since Angela Merkel became Chancellor, whether France wants the embargo lifted or not doesn't matter too much.

Also you have to ask whether Paris would think it worthwhile to sell to Taipei and then offer deals to Beijing that would compromise the Taiwanese sales. Sometimes you can make more money through support and maintenance than when a contract is first signed. Plus the French remember what happened the last time they sold stuff to China. Would they want to sell anything that sensitive knowing full well those secrets might be uncovered, incorporated into Chinese weapons and then sold on?

As for what France might sell, China wouldn't want tanks or submarines so there'd be no fear from Taiwan on that front. Not sure they would want SAMs either. The only issue is aircraft technology, and again I doubt the French would sell their best stuff to China knowing what might happen to it (I say might as I don't know how effective their anti-tamper systems are).
 

The_Zergling

Junior Member
Also you have to ask whether Paris would think it worthwhile to sell to Taipei and then offer deals to Beijing that would compromise the Taiwanese sales. Sometimes you can make more money through support and maintenance than when a contract is first signed. Plus the French remember what happened the last time they sold stuff to China. Would they want to sell anything that sensitive knowing full well those secrets might be uncovered, incorporated into Chinese weapons and then sold on?

It seems likely that the French (or any other arms exporter) would find it more profitable in the long run to sell to China rather than Taiwan, if only because of disparity in size of economy. I certainly wouldn't expect France to sell Rafales to China though.
 

Mr T

Senior Member
It seems likely that the French (or any other arms exporter) would find it more profitable in the long run to sell to China rather than Taiwan, if only because of disparity in size of economy.

Based purely on sizes of economy, you're right. But building on what I said earlier, what can France sell to China where it wouldn't matter much if the system's secrets were uncovered?

If France can afford to lose control of the technology of what it sells, that implies it would be something China can make itself for less. If China wanted it badly enough to pay European prices, it would probably be something very sophisticated that France would not want to see tampered with.
 

Mr T

Senior Member
To get out of the hypothetical arms sales, here's a contract that has actually been placed.

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Raytheon announced another win for its Patriot missile systems Jan. 26, a contract worth up to $154 million to upgrade Taiwan's Patriot missile systems.

The contract follows two smaller contracts awarded last year to upgrade Taiwan's Patriot systems. Under the contracts, Raytheon will upgrade Taiwan's Patriots to "configuration 3," the same upgrade the company is completing for the U.S. Army. Configuration 3 is Raytheon's most advanced Patriot system and allows the use of Lockheed's PAC-3 missiles and allows missile launchers to be placed miles in front of the radar of the system, rather than right next to the radar as in earlier Patriot systems.
 

The_Zergling

Junior Member
This is why I argue that missiles cannot be the only thing a Taiwanese leader gets in negotiations - it's an easy thing for the PRC to do because it superficially looks like they're extending goodwill, while not giving up anything useful at all.
 
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