Not a snowball’s chance in hell.
Incheon was only possible because the US at the time enjoyed unchallenged air and naval dominance. NK had zero ability to even seriously threaten the landing fleet even if they knew where it was. Which they didn’t, and was the other main reason for the success of Incheon since the North Koreans were caught completely unawares and were militarily massively overstretched so had zero reserves to try to counter it.
Even if the US does manage to effect a landing, it could not possibly hope to keep that beachhead secure for sustained reinforcements and logistics support to flow in.
And even if they managed to get meaningful forces on Taiwan, they are going to be going head to head against the PLA. They will be outnumbered, outgunned and probably out-sticked by the kind of hardware the PLA can bring to bear compared to what they can realistically land. If you want massive American combat casualties, that’s the most sure fire way to do it.
The battle for Taiwan will be decided in the air and on the seas. If the US can achieve and maintain air and sea dominance, the PLA won’t be able to land and its game over. OTOH, if the PLA does manage to land in force, than that means they would have achieved air as sea dominance and it is again game over. Throwing the entire USMC into that meat grinder will only result in the entire USMC coming back in body bags, if enough of them could be scraped together to fill body bags that is.