not a chance, my only question is how soon the Peking Method of Peaceful Reunification will take
Taiwan Military News, Reports, Data, etc.
- Thread starter Gollevainen
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not a chance, my only question is how soon the Peking Method of Peaceful Reunification will take
You must be talking about taking Tokyo tongue in cheek.
20 years ago, the Taiwan issue really was about whether or not Taiwan had a right to self-determination to become independent since I don't think there is really an argument on whether Taiwan is currently a part of China, except in the gutters of Western politics and media which don't even know what their own country's position on Taiwan is. I agree with you that today, Taiwan no longer has anything to do with that. It is now simply the main point of contention between two superpowers to determine which has pre-eminence in East Asia. I think the status quo will remain because while neither side has much to gain from initiating a change to the status quo, each will have more to lose from failing to defend against the other's provocation.
I would like to hear some thoughts about the military aspect of control of Taiwan when it comes to a post 2030 Chinese naval power projection capability in the Western Pacific. Clearly, it would be better for Taiwan to be incorporated into the PLA's domain and to have radar stations and submarine bases in deep water installed on the eastern shore. However, should any conflict arise between US and China elsewhere, what is the strategic importance of a neutral Taiwan in those scenarios. Surely, Taiwan would not want to stick its head out and provide radar and other electrical warfare intelligence to the US, let alone send missiles and planes into the air. That would only give China the excuse to invade.
Taiwan essentially ensures lack of free, unobstructed, and unobserved access for China to the open ocean, for simple geographical reasons. It also ensures a reasonable level of access to seas around China. basically, Bismarck case.
And, vise versa, with Taiwan in Chinese hands, not only monitoring and obstructing PLAN&PLAAF access to the Pacific becomes nigh impossible, access into Chinese SCS bastion also suffers tremendously.
Is there any scenario where the PLA makes landfall in Taiwan and the US is able to do an Incheon landing type scenario and expel them before fully taking over?
Off the top of my head, the few suitable landing areas for the PLA would make it equally difficult for foreign intervention.
Off the top of my head, the few suitable landing areas for the PLA would make it equally difficult for foreign intervention.
Highly unlikely to impossible that the US would make a landing in Taiwan.
The moment the PLA (PLANMC) lands and secures a bridgehead, it is all over for any chance for the US to expel them
@discspinner
It's more than this.
With Taiwan under Chinese control, China will focus on creating a global blue-water Navy, instead of focusing on a Taiwan invasion scenario.
Shit man, Taiwan strait is 100m deep. I can drag massive fishing nets to act as torpedo nets behind disposable fishing trawler.
I would also use massive container ships as ASCM sponges, dumping off 40ft container as they pop.
JASDF is a hollow shell of a force, only USN is going to pose a challenge. What da fuck is USMC going to do, Going door to door with PLA? If there is something worse than not getting into a land war in Asia, it is getting into a land war in an urban setting in Asia.
Shit looks badass in the USN/USMC commercials, but once you've served with crazy red neck grunt mofos for 20 years, you realize they are just as much a much of astute roid fiends as delusional wife beater. We are all humans after all.
Hey Puff, how much time have you served in the US Joint Force?
plawolf
Lieutenant General
Not a snowball’s chance in hell.
Incheon was only possible because the US at the time enjoyed unchallenged air and naval dominance. NK had zero ability to even seriously threaten the landing fleet even if they knew where it was. Which they didn’t, and was the other main reason for the success of Incheon since the North Koreans were caught completely unawares and were militarily massively overstretched so had zero reserves to try to counter it.
Even if the US does manage to effect a landing, it could not possibly hope to keep that beachhead secure for sustained reinforcements and logistics support to flow in.
And even if they managed to get meaningful forces on Taiwan, they are going to be going head to head against the PLA. They will be outnumbered, outgunned and probably out-sticked by the kind of hardware the PLA can bring to bear compared to what they can realistically land. If you want massive American combat casualties, that’s the most sure fire way to do it.
The battle for Taiwan will be decided in the air and on the seas. If the US can achieve and maintain air and sea dominance, the PLA won’t be able to land and its game over. OTOH, if the PLA does manage to land in force, than that means they would have achieved air as sea dominance and it is again game over. Throwing the entire USMC into that meat grinder will only result in the entire USMC coming back in body bags, if enough of them could be scraped together to fill body bags that is.
Equation
Lieutenant General
Yup there are some of them in the US Army as well. They think the entire world revolves around them because they're delusional about WW2 gave them that right.
Taiwan itself is doomed, probably within a week of first landings. That's pretty much guaranteed given balance of forces.
The question is what next?
How do you break the ensuring far blockade by the western and Japanese fleets? The PRC needs more blue water assets not for Taiwan but to basically crack Japan like a peanut or in worst case, slam a group army down on Kyushu and mow down the vestigial Japanese ground forces. Other interesting problems would be removing the USN and possibly the Indians from the Straits of Malacca and the other straits in Southeast Asia.
The capability to solve the problems after stringing up English Vegetable from a lamp post isn't there yet, otherwise I'd just say to go ahead and invade just to watch the cope and seethe on BBC and NYT.