US admiral confirms arms sales freeze
WEAPONS SAGA: Timothy Keating said US forces were already a powerful deterrent in East Asia and Beijing shouldn’t ‘bother’ challenging them as it would surely lose
By Charles Snyder
STAFF REPORTER, WASHINGTON
Friday, Jul 18, 2008, Page 1
The US’ “preeminence” in East Asia and its confidence that it could defeat any hostile Chinese military maneuver against Taiwan make it less urgent for Washington to approve a batch of arms sales to Taiwan that the administration has frozen, the commander of the US forces in the Pacific region said in Washington on Wednesday.
Admiral Timothy Keating confirmed the decision of the administration of US President George W. Bush to freeze the processing of some US$12 billion in arms sales to Taiwan — at least temporarily.
But amid indications that his Pacific command disagrees with the administration on the freeze, Keating’s defense was heavily hedged as he answered questions at a presentation at the Heritage Foundation, a conservative think tank.
Earlier reports stated that the items involved in the freeze include submarines, anti-missile systems and helicopters, as well as advanced F-16 fighter jets.
“It is administration policy,” the admiral said in answer to a question from a Taiwanese reporter.
Destabilize
He justified the policy by saying: “We want to do nothing to destabilize the straits [sic].”
“The folks who make these decisions have reconciled Taiwan’s current military posture and China’s current military posture and strategy,” he said, referring to the State Department, White House and National Security Council (NSC).
“That indicates there is no pressing, compelling need for, at this moment, arms sales to Taiwan of the systems that we are talking about,” he said.
Keating was not asked whether the new policy violates the Taiwan Relations Act of 1979, in which the US is committed to supply Taiwan with defensive weapons on the basis of need rather than political considerations, as well as former US president Ronald Reagan’s six assurances, which pledged the continuation of such weapons sales.
News reports have said the freeze, which began late last year, was a bid to placate China as the US needed Beijing’s cooperation on a series of global issues, as well as concerns expressed by Chinese Nationalist Party (KMT) officials that the timing of any sales announcement could affect warming relations with China under the administration of President Ma Ying-jeou (馬英九).
Hamper
Whether the freeze will in years ahead hamper Taiwan’s ability to defend itself against an increasingly strong and modern Chinese military machine as Taiwan’s military might wanes is a “consideration” but not a “concern,” Keating said, conceding that the military balance in the Strait could widen in China’s favor in years to come.
In discussing the situation with top Pentagon officials, US Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice and NSC officials, Keating said he told them he was not “overly concerned,” but that the cross-strait situation “is something we regard carefully.”
“We’re doing everything in our power to preclude occurrence, that is to say, the outbreak of hostilities across the Strait,” Keating said. “And I’m more comfortable today than I was 15 months ago that my belief is well-founded, that it’s very ... unlikely that there will be conflict across the Strait.”
But Keating added that “Taiwan’s stuff is getting older, China’s stuff is good and getting newer. There is an imbalance.”
“I think that our country’s policy to do everything we can to defuse tension in the Strait has borne fruit and is much more likely to be unchallenged in the year to mid, and even to long term,” he said.
Keating asserted that the US was “committed to the defense of Taiwan,” adding that the US’ position as a “preeminent force” in the Pacific meant that it would be “folly” for China or another country to believe it could win a war against the US.
On the basis of his repeated conversations with Chinese military leaders since he took over as US commander in the Pacific last year, Keating said he felt the situation in the Taiwan Strait was “significantly more stable” than when he took over.
“The tensions have been palpably decreased in the Strait,” especially since Ma’s election, he said.
“We’re trying to instill a very clear sense of military preeminence, so as to be a powerful deterrence against China’s kinetic military undertaking against Taiwan ... I want them [China] to know they’re going to lose ... so don’t bother,” he said.
In Taipei, Presidential Office Spokesman Wang Yu-chi (王郁琦) yesterday said the legislature’s passage of relevant budgets demonstrated Taiwan’s committment to strengthening its self-defense capability. The office expressed the hope that the US arms procurement could proceed as originally scheduled, he said.
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TAIPEI, Taiwan -- A China policy adviser to presumptive Republican presidential nominee John McCain
said Thursday that the new U.S. president - whoever he is - is likely to come under heavy pressure to end a freeze on sales of American weaponry to Taiwan.
Randall Schriver's comments came less than a day after Admiral Timothy Keating, the top U.S. military commander in the Pacific, confirmed that the freeze was in place.
Schriver, a former deputy assistant secretary of state for East Asian affairs in U.S. President George W. Bush's administration, told reporters that the campaigns of both McCain and presumptive Democratic nominee Barack Obama were trying to persuade the White House that the freeze "was an unhelpful thing."
However, he said it was likely to persist at least until Bush leaves office in January 2009 because the administration believes that removing it would anger China, seen as a key ally in addressing crucial international issues such as the neutralization of North Korea's nuclear weapons program.
China strongly objects to the U.S. selling weapons to Taiwan. The two sides split amid civil war in 1949 and Beijing still considers Taiwan to be Chinese territory. It has threatened to attack if Taiwan moves to make its de facto independence permanent.
Schriver said U.S. law obligates Washington to provide Taiwan with the means to defend itself, something the new president would be hard pressed to ignore.
The Taiwan Relations Act was enacted in 1979 when the United States transferred its diplomatic recognition from Taipei to Beijing.
"We do have to make systems available to Taiwan for defense," Schriver said. "I think a new administration would come under significant pressure to honor our own law."
The freeze, which Schriver called "unprecedented," covers some US$11 billion worth of arms, including Apache helicopters, spare parts for F-16 jet fighters and Patriot III anti-missile systems.
Schriver said that because of increasing Chinese clout in Washington, the new president was likely to have to pay a stiff quid pro quo to have the freeze removed.
"Undoing that freeze is going to come at a price and a cost with China," he said.
On Saturday, newly installed Taiwanese President Ma Ying-jeou publicly called on the U.S. to remove the freeze, the first time he has done so.
He said that despite recent progress in improving relations with China, Taiwan still needed American arms to help it defend itself against its longtime rival.