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Equation

Equation

Lieutenant General
SamuraiBlue said:
Since Japan had renounced her military equipment export self embargo, Taiwan can always make request towards Japan. It isn't a complete impossibility since Australia is also making a request to obtain the Soryu class SSK with promising response.
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Yeah if Japan wants to risk losing their trade status with China in which their economy is so dependent on.

Besides like I said before, it's all about the program. Taiwan submarine program (if there's going to be one) will be at a beginning state and will be costly to have one. Remember, they have to basically start from scratch, that's includes building a dry dock, a manufacturing and maintenance facilities, secure the area, have enough personnel (assuming they ALL pass the security background check) to even run, build, test, and put together a submarine kit. Oh yeah, and I haven't even mention how much are needed for weapons, operating systems, nav systems, communication systems, all the computer hardware and software and life support systems. And than you have to train sailors to operate the submarine. I just covered the basics on top of my head, I'm sure there are more. As you can see, I doubt it's plausible that ROC would want to take this route if they can see how much and how difficult it can be to run a submarine program.
 
Blitzo

Blitzo

Lieutenant General
Staff member
Super Moderator
Registered Member
Skywatcher said:
That's assuming Taipei can pay for it. Not to mention the implications for Cross Straits relations.
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Not to mention that will seriously shake things up in East Asia.

Even a neutral five year old observer will be able to see that is a deliberate crossing of a red line and a provocation.
But I wonder if ROC would go for it even if they had the money. There is still a history after all, and recent Japanese moves probably has inflamed some Taiwanese nerves the same as china and SK. A DPP government might go for it, but what about KMT? More importantly, what if a change in government occurs mid build or procurement and there is political pressure to shut it down?

Cause you can be sure that such a transaction will be one of the most controversial military contracts in recent Taiwanese if not East Asian history
 
shen

shen

Senior Member
Several SSK is not going to stop an invasion, should it become necessary. But...
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let's just say PLAN would secretly be pleased should any SSK technology be transferred to ROC.
 
TerraN_EmpirE

TerraN_EmpirE

Tyrant King
In the Event of a Invasion scenario it's likely any SSK would be come a reall pain in the Invaders arse.
Adopting Wolf Pack tactics they could strike at critical naval assets of the enemy.
 
Blitzo

Blitzo

Lieutenant General
Staff member
Super Moderator
Registered Member
TerraN_EmpirE said:
In the Event of a Invasion scenario it's likely any SSK would be come a reall pain in the Invaders arse.
Adopting Wolf Pack tactics they could strike at critical naval assets of the enemy.
Click to expand...

Well, I wonder how good the survival chance of an SSK force in the Taiwan strait will be?

I imagine if they're very good about it they can lie in wait until they sight as many targets as they can before firing, but in the confined waters of the strait that will likely be saturated by PLAN ships and helicopters, the moment PLAN sonars detect movement of torpedoes, ASW actions will be executed.

SSKs for ROCN will be most useful for picking off individual ships or small groups of ships who cannot lend ASW support to each other. But against a larger more integrated force I imagine their survivability post-torpedo launch, will dramatically decrease.

But it still remains the case that SSKs are probably the most sensible expensive military purchase the ROC military can make in the forseeable future, if someone were willing to sell to them.
 
shen

shen

Senior Member
TerraN_EmpirE said:
In the Event of a Invasion scenario it's likely any SSK would be come a reall pain in the Invaders arse.
Adopting Wolf Pack tactics they could strike at critical naval assets of the enemy.
Click to expand...

Philippines 1941. D-Day 1944. submarines are poor counter-invasion weapons.
 
SamuraiBlue

SamuraiBlue

Captain
Equation said:
Yeah if Japan wants to risk losing their trade status with China in which their economy is so dependent on.

Besides like I said before, it's all about the program. Taiwan submarine program (if there's going to be one) will be at a beginning state and will be costly to have one. Remember, they have to basically start from scratch, that's includes building a dry dock, a manufacturing and maintenance facilities, secure the area, have enough personnel (assuming they ALL pass the security background check) to even run, build, test, and put together a submarine kit. Oh yeah, and I haven't even mention how much are needed for weapons, operating systems, nav systems, communication systems, all the computer hardware and software and life support systems. And than you have to train sailors to operate the submarine. I just covered the basics on top of my head, I'm sure there are more. As you can see, I doubt it's plausible that ROC would want to take this route if they can see how much and how difficult it can be to run a submarine program.
Click to expand...

Bltizo said:
Not to mention that will seriously shake things up in East Asia.

Even a neutral five year old observer will be able to see that is a deliberate crossing of a red line and a provocation.
But I wonder if ROC would go for it even if they had the money. There is still a history after all, and recent Japanese moves probably has inflamed some Taiwanese nerves the same as china and SK. A DPP government might go for it, but what about KMT? More importantly, what if a change in government occurs mid build or procurement and there is political pressure to shut it down?

Cause you can be sure that such a transaction will be one of the most controversial military contracts in recent Taiwanese if not East Asian history
Click to expand...

There always ways to circumvent those negative such as Japan, US, Australia and, Taiwan alliance program in which Japan provides license to Australia to produce the Soryu class, Australia constructs the subs for their navy as well as one for Taiwan in which the boat is leased going through US with the US providing training.
This way everyone gets what they want.
The Soryu license to Australia is basically a done deal. Australia needs the orders to keep the industry alive so they would be more then happy to provide the boat. After that it's basically a matter of US connecting the dots.
 
Blitzo

Blitzo

Lieutenant General
Staff member
Super Moderator
Registered Member
SamuraiBlue said:
There always ways to circumvent those negative such as Japan, US, Australia and, Taiwan alliance program in which Japan provides license to Australia to produce the Soryu class, Australia constructs the subs for their navy as well as one for Taiwan in which the boat is leased going through US with the US providing training.
This way everyone gets what they want.
The Soryu license to Australia is basically a done deal. Australia needs the orders to keep the industry alive so they would be more then happy to provide the boat. After that it's basically a matter of US connecting the dots.
Click to expand...

I don't doubt Australia will get the subs they want, but Taiwan is a much further dot from the close cluster of US, Japan, Australia. Also, any countries that would support in any meaningful way such a transaction will receive the brunt of chinese political and economic displeasure.
In your scenario, it would be the middle man, Australia, and they are rather vulnerable to chinese economic influence.

The US could try providing Taiwan SSKs as well via Japan, or Japan might just sell soryus directly to them. In which case relations in the western pacific are only going to further deteriorate and will likely spark incentive for a rapid chinese increase in ASW capability deployment.
 
TerraN_EmpirE

TerraN_EmpirE

Tyrant King
The Us has sold Major Defense products to Taiwan regularly, As such It's likely the ROC will get Direct US support in any sale , And the Japanese have strong ties to the US. So They could serve as a Back channel. but that is all neither here nor there The Question is who is Taipei?
The Current Sitting Ruling party in Taipei strongly wants to move closer to the PRC. There is however a very popular push to move away we saw that in the recent student protest. If the Current government makes the call Japan would not stand a chance. If If It's Voted out and the next government is the opposition party, Then Japan may get a full hearing.
 
S

Skywatcher

Captain
TerraN_EmpirE said:
The Us has sold Major Defense products to Taiwan regularly, As such It's likely the ROC will get Direct US support in any sale , And the Japanese have strong ties to the US. So They could serve as a Back channel. but that is all neither here nor there The Question is who is Taipei?
The Current Sitting Ruling party in Taipei strongly wants to move closer to the PRC. There is however a very popular push to move away we saw that in the recent student protest. If the Current government makes the call Japan would not stand a chance. If If It's Voted out and the next government is the opposition party, Then Japan may get a full hearing.
Click to expand...

Those protests were a farce, they had even less staying power than previous movements to ban nuclear energy or improve conscript conditions, despite what a cashiered CSIS officer would have you believe.

Frankly, if Taiwan had to choose between Soryus (built in Japan or Australia, or used) and a domestic option with US support, they would probably choose the domestic option to keep more of the money in country (it's going to be a very, very expensive buy either way).
 
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