Taiwan Military News, Reports, Data, etc.

All discussions regarding a hypothetical invasion of taiwan usually end with a thread being locked guyz.

I want to point out that the status quo and the present trajectory of both regional and global shift in power is beneficial for the PRC.

Military action will only happen under two circumstances:
1, Taiwan declares formal independence
2, a clancy-esque scenario where china invades taiwan to divert attention from "internal problems," usually associated with an economic downturn of some sort. Wishful thinking on the part of many military thriller authors, imo.

vesicles said:

Do you know how many missiles are targeted at Taiwan at this moment? It would not take a lot to cut off all communications on the island. Without effective communication, the defense on the island is paralyzed. the number of planes and ships does not matter. And don't forget, China will have all the time it needs to prepare for an invasion because China is the one starting it. It may as well spend 50 years gathering resources for an invasion. How much time does Taiwan have? The time from thousands of missile being launched to the time those thousands of missiles land...
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It doesn't work that way . Military always has multiple and redundant ways to communicate , from primitive methods like runners and hand-written notes to satellite phones . Chinese salvo of missiles could disrupt civilian services like cellphone network and Internet (although even that would not be completely halted ) , but I'm certain that Taiwanese armed forces are prepared for various contingencies , even for nuclear attack . You don't have to believe me , check recent conflicts - even less trained and equipped forces never stopped to communicate despite enemy onslaught .

As for the time for preparation , China could theoretically amass X number of man and Y number of ships during peacetime . But , unless you want to allow your enemy opportunity to shoot at them , you would have to eliminate his forces defending the island : 1. airforce 2. navy 3. army

Bltizo said:

All discussions regarding a hypothetical invasion of taiwan usually end with a thread being locked guyz.

I want to point out that the status quo and the present trajectory of both regional and global shift in power is beneficial for the PRC.

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Ok , I will avoid further discussion on this sensitive topic . But still wanted to say that if it is so easy (over in a week) China would have done it . All potential negative effects would be far outweighed by territorial and political gain of reuniting China without having to wait for years .

thunderchief said:

Ok , I will avoid further discussion on this sensitive topic . But still wanted to say that if it is so easy (over in a week) China would have done it . All potential negative effects would be far outweighed by territorial and political gain of reuniting China without having to wait for years .

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Well, I think it's better to discuss a taiwan contingency in terms of principles of say, amphibious invasions and the disruption of communications, or effects of airstrikes, rather than specifically comparing PLA and ROC military.


Also, the territorial and political gain would be outweighed by the potential involvement of US, along with all the negative economic effects to the PRC (remember, china's top aim is for continued economic growth and increasing living conditions for its citizens, as it has been for the last few decades -- they need regional stability to do this).
Further, even if China somehow gained taiwan, they will still have a resentful populace to try and placate and govern (especially if the invasion was "unprovoked").

Also, it has only been in the last decade, if that, that we are able to say that the PLA can convincingly win a taiwan contingency, and that is because of the aforementioned economic growth.
It makes no sense to attack now, because if PRC keeps waiting, eventual peaceful reunification might occur, or they can keep getting ahead with their military capability while taiwan keeps at their snails pace.

Military action has not really been the PRC's Taiwan strategy for the last few decades. Keeping the status quo/denial of taiwan's formal independence, and improving ties has.
Military action was always just a deterrence against formal independence. A conflict will be bloody, and it'll completely change the geopolitical landscape of westpac, if not the entire world. It'll definitely adversely effect the PRC's economy and thus, its internal stability. IF US gets involved, who knows where they'll end up?

No, taking taiwan without due reason, even if they can hold it and extract out a surrender within a week, simply isn't worth it, and I'd argue history would look badly on the PRC if they did.

Jeff Head said:

Clearly the use will be for cross strait situations for these vessels. These are an attempt at an asymetrical field leveler. In the straits, that range is plenty adequate, and being so close to the country itself, they are likely to have a lot of coverage for sensors...at least initially.

Agree 100% with both of these. Their most critical need is definitely submarines...and they are languishing on this. No one seems willing to help them.

I do not think they need huge enduracne for their likely use. The article states 500 miles or so in terms of radius.

And, in the straits and the proximity of the island, they are going to have beaucoup sensor and targeting coverage from the E-2 Hawkeyes they have, their own land based long range radar, and their other more capable vessels like the Kidds.

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Well, even operating 10 miles off the coast of Taiwan itself, the FAC would still have to deal with a lot of air launched AShMs from various PRC platforms (it might have stealth shaping, but it will still leave a pretty hefty IR signature, and there's also the issue of its wake).

IMO from the Mainland's military and political leadership perspective, taking TW's outer islands (Kinmen, Matsu, Wuciou) in a punitive military action scenario would be less risky than a full invasion of TW. Instead of the Chinese Navy going over to TW, the ROC forces will have to go to China's backyard.

Re submarines:
The Netherlands had a nice shipyard able to build good submarines as well as reactor vessels for PWR's. But the Dutch navy had enough good sub's for the time being and no-one wanted to build nuclear power stations, a quarter of a century ago. So it needed to export submarines and Taiwan wanted six, and to begin with two. These two are the newest submarines in the ROC navy. The reaction of PRC was so effective that the building of the next four was abandoned. The shipyard was closed.
No country with the capability to build conventional submarines will dare help ROC get submarines.

Re conflict:
In case of conflict the first thing will be to declare the Taiwan ports and airports closed. After the the end of exports and the end of imports ( oil ! ) there will be an opportunity to talk things over.

P3s finally arrive:


so when are they going to sign the contract for the rest of the UH60Ms(besides the half dozen contracted for so far) and exercise the options on the EC225?

adeptitus said:

IMO from the Mainland's military and political leadership perspective, taking TW's outer islands (Kinmen, Matsu, Wuciou) in a punitive military action scenario would be less risky than a full invasion of TW. Instead of the Chinese Navy going over to TW, the ROC forces will have to go to China's backyard.

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If conflict ever break out, China will go straight for the jugular and end the war ASAP. Stopping after taking a few insignificant outer islands will only serve to give the US more time to marshal its forces and also embolden the US to intervene by making the Chinese leadership appearing to lack the will to see the conflict through to the end.

I think those FACS are too little, too late and the wrong approach tbh. Even with stealth features, the Taiwan Strait is too narrow for them to operate in. Even if the were parked on the beach, they would be within range on PLA land based AShMs. And the close proximity only serves to negate the stealthier advantage of the FACs.

As soon as conflict begins, anything on the surface in the straits that isn't PLAN is as good as dead.

Taiwan desperately needs subs, but China is just far too economically and politically important for any of the sub makers to want to cross over such a small deal. But just because no one wants to sell Taiwan subs doesn't mean they cannot develop and make them themselves. Even the North Korean DIY midget subs could be useful in a Taiwan scenario, as primitive as they are. And I'm sure Taiwan could come up with something better.

If I was in charge of Taiwan's navy, I would do away with all the vanity project big surface ships and focus my resources on indigenous subs, long range, highly mobile AShMs, maybe some FACs, but definitely plenty of VTOL UAVs with sensor packages that could datalink with my AShMs and provide search and targeting data as I don't expect my airborne or land based manned radar assets to last long in the event of a war.

In a way, I think the reason Taiwan isn't doing all it can in terms of defence is because subconsciously at least, the vast majority has never been that bothered about formal independence, and many even accepts the inevitability of absorption into the mainland. They are going through the motions to not 'make themselves an easy target', but everyone knows full well nothing Taiwan does short of becoming a nuclear power will ever deter or stop a Chinese invasion, and any attempt to develop a nuclear weapons capability will be guaranteed to trigger said Chinese invasion before a viable bomb could be built.

plawolf said:

....If I was in charge of Taiwan's navy, I would do away with all the vanity project big surface ships and focus my resources on indigenous subs, long range, highly mobile AShMs, maybe some FACs, but definitely plenty of VTOL UAVs with sensor packages that could datalink with my AShMs and provide search and targeting data as I don't expect my airborne or land based manned radar assets to last long in the event of a war....

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It's also about a smaller budget compared to what China spends. Developing their own subs would definitely be a force multiplier for them. Perhaps some covert R&D under the guise of scientific research on different aspects with different nations so no nation would specifically be facing the pressure from China. Then put all that knowledge together to build indigenous subs. Even sell export models to help recoup costs. But the process is not cheap nor overnight.

Which big surface ships would you consider as vanity? I would say some capital ships are still needed. But perhaps a more frugal procurement process to stretch the budget. Pick up ships that some countries are selling off due to economic troubles? Procure corvettes instead of frigates?

How about simply beefing up on guided missiles and long range sensors? Launching a geosynchronous military satellite dedicated to Taiwan for 24/7 coverage?