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Re: US think tank head urges Taiwan to cut military power against China

antiterror13 said:

Interesting opinion !!!!!

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US Center for National Policy Scott Bates said that Taiwan should cut half of its military forces against China, the China Times reported on Jan. 26.

China Times did not reveal when Bates made the remarks but reported that the Washington-based think tank head also recommended Taiwan to continue to increase its air and navy forces.

In response, spokesman for Taiwan's Ministry of National Defense Lo Shao-ho said that Bates' remarks will not change anything regarding the nation's policies for national security.

"The reason for the military forces to exist is to secure our homeland and maintain national interests. While China continues to increase its military power, it is necessary for us to do so, in order to maintain the peace over the Taiwan Strait," Lo said.

Bates suggested Taiwan to cut the total amount of soldiers from 130,000 to 65,000 and "make a solemn pledge that in the event of hostilities, [it] will never conduct any military action on the shores of China. Even if attacked by the Chinese, Taiwan would only defend itself." If Taiwan's navy and air force continues to increase in strength and capability, China would have to think before leaping into a strike against Taiwan because Taiwan may be able to win sympathy from the majority of Chinese people, now that it does not regard China as an enemy.

"It is necessary to tell the opponent that it will cost a lot to strike against Taiwan," Bates said.

Joseph Bosco, an expert for Asia security, rebutted Bates' remarks. He said that Bates was requesting Taiwan not to fight back against the invader and "it is against the logic to warn the potential enemy prior to an actual fight."

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I understood that this has been the purpose of the Taiwanese military for several years, exchanging the existing conscription army for a voluntary service army. And quite right. The mercenary will believe in receiving his salary, but the conscripted Taiwanese soldier sees no sense in defending Taiwan against China. The problem is that not enough money can be found to execute the switch.

Re: US think tank head urges Taiwan to cut military power against China

jobjed said:

Unless they hide themselves underground or in caves, they're going to be spotted, tracked and destroyed. That basically means they will have to spend their time in caves in order to survive, which leaves no-one to guard the coastline. Unless of course the caves are right on the coast, in which case they can both stay in caves and defend the coastline at the same time, but their cave opening will be exposed to missiles.

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They have been planning on doing both for decades.

They have many solid, underground installations with more than one opening. And they have very strong, well protected (both by military systems and terrain) emplacements for defending their coasts.

An invasion of Taiwan will be a very expensive and costly proposition, even without US intervention. But, without that intervention, it will also end up being a war of attrition that Taiwan cannot win.

Re: US think tank head urges Taiwan to cut military power against China

Jeff Head said:

They have been planning on doing both for decades.

They have many solid, underground installations with more than one opening. And they have very strong, well protected (both by military systems and terrain) emplacements for defending their coasts.

An invasion of Taiwan will be a very expensive and costly proposition, even without US intervention. But, without that intervention, it will also end up being a war of attrition that Taiwan cannot win.

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These contingency plans, like taking off/landing on highways and caves, etc. are mostly for show. The moment they have to start using these caves, they have lost the war. It means the PLA has gained control of the entire island, specifically all the critical facilities. Most importantly, water, food and supplies. Even assuming these caves are built perfectly and completely impenetrable, how long can they last with only the supply previously stored in the caves? All the supply facilities above the ground will be used by the PLA as perfect traps to lure desperate left-over resistant fighters. So the PLA won't even have to go and look for them. They just sit and wait...

These things are only built to calm the civilians down and have no real meaning in time of war. The fact that they focus so much time and money on these things only suggests that they have absolutely no confidence in winning a war against the Mainland. All they think about is how to last a little longer once they lose.

Lasting a little longer means differently for different places. For a nation as big as Mainland China, the US or Russia, lasting a little longer could give them time to regroup because they have so many people and so large the land. A small island like Taiwan, once they lose control, they lose it.

my thinking is this
1 the PLA cannot assure the top officials of that victory, And even if they could very very rarely do invasions go that smoothly.
2 even if they could secure the bunkers they would still find themselves having to deal with potential civilian and former military resistance fighters.
The potential for a long term drag out non conventional war would still be high. The nightmare of every blade of grass being a sniper and every children's backpack holding a handgrenade will give any one cold feet. The PLA is not set up for that kind of fight.
3 the PLA is canon heavy and conventional in formation there most likely first reaction to sabotage will likely be heavy handed shelling of troubled spots. Not the best choice for pasifying a population. And despite what some have said to contrary there is nothing like a invasion by force to unite population of fractured peoples. So you can bet both the locals who trace the line from before the nationalist landings and the nationalist would be fighting. The only ya I see for the top of the PLA to ensure that such a resistance is potted out would be to rubble the island and salt the earth.
Given these thoughts my thinking is that the PRC is hoping to wow taiwan back. Thesmain weapon in that is Hong kong. By setting that city as a sub scale model and saying to the government of taiwan. "see we can work with you. So come on back. " those who have created The soft sell plan however have two key problems one of which is that chinese hard liners are always near the top and want all of china in line with the programme and they want it now. So hong kong finds its self under demands to be more like the mainland well taiwan is always reminded of the military option and on the wrong end of rattling sabres. Particularly when the communist party is feeling troubled.

Re: US think tank head urges Taiwan to cut military power against China

vesicles said:

These contingency plans, like taking off/landing on highways and caves, etc. are mostly for show. The moment they have to start using these caves, they have lost the war. It means the PLA has gained control of the entire island, specifically all the critical facilities.

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That is not the purpose of the underground and hardened facilities. Tthey would start using those facilities as soon as their intelligence told them war was inevitable, or as soon as it started.

They would seek to shellter and save their aircraft and other equipment in an effort to be able to oppose and throw back any landings and keep the PLA off the island and from capturinrg all of the rest of the island. It is true that once the island is largely captured by the PLA, the undergorund sites will all eventually fall...but the whole idea of those sites is to be used to save critical defense equipment, personnel and supplies to be able to keep the PLA from successfully landing in force and capturing the rest of the island.

Re: US think tank head urges Taiwan to cut military power against China

Jeff Head said:

That is not the purpose of the underground and hardened facilities. Tthey would start using those facilities as soon as their intelligence told them war was inevitable, or as soon as it started.

They would seek to shellter and save their aircraft and other equipment in an effort to be able to oppose and throw back any landings and keep the PLA off the island and from capturinrg all of the rest of the island. It is true that once the island is largely captured by the PLA, the undergorund sites will all eventually fall...but the whole idea of those sites is to be used to save critical defense equipment, personnel and supplies to be able to keep the PLA from successfully landing in force and capturing the rest of the island.

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Saddam also used caves to hide fighter jets. We all know where those jets end up...

My feeling is that, once you start thinking about hiding anything when being invaded/attacked, you WILL lose. The goal is to push back the invasion before any of your own vital elements become threatened. Once you lose those elements, no amount of hiding can get you out of the kind of trouble you will be in.

Additionally, I am totally against hiding portion of your equipment in an effort to be able to oppose and throw back any landings when you are the inferior one. The defender is normally at his strongest during the initial phase of the fight when no vital facility has been destroyed by attackers. You want to try the hardest to defeat your attacker at this time, which means that you want to invest in everything you've got: ALL the fighter jets, missiles, tanks, ships, subs, etc. People might think "well, I want to make sure my AF is not completely destroyed. So I am going to hide some of them in caves". Well, think about this: if the majority of your AF that you actually put in (say 75% of your total AF) cannot fight back the attacker when you are at your full strength, how can you ever fight back with a few left-over jets hidden in caves (25% of the AF) and the invading opponent occupying the entire island and ALL of your vital facilities unavailable (compounded by the fact that your pilots will be tired and starved)??? Might as well put in everything you've got at the beginning when you are at your full strength and still have ALL the resources you can use. The hope is that you inflict enough damage on your attacker that they will think twice about continuing the attack.

Re: US think tank head urges Taiwan to cut military power against China

vesicles said:

Saddam also used caves to hide fighter jets. We all know where those jets end up...

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They ended up flying over to Iran and giving themselves up to Iran rather than take to the air and fight the US. I do not believe the ROCAF will refuse to fight the PLAAF.

vesicles said:

Additionally, I am totally against hiding portion of your equipment in an effort to be able to oppose and throw back any landings when you are the inferior one. The defender is normally at his strongest during the initial phase of the fight when no vital facility has been destroyed by attackers. You want to try the hardest to defeat your attacker at this time, which means that you want to invest in everything you've got:

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And that is exactly what this strategy allows Taiwan to do...conserve that power so they can face the attacks as the come across the straits, rather than most of them being destroyed by the intense (numbering probably in the thousands) ballistic missile barrage that will precede such a landing.

So, they protect the ones on the ground from the ballistic missiles while maintaining a credible combat air patrol during it, instead of losing far too many of them on the groundf during the missile barrages, and then, as the PLA lifts that barage so its own vessels can land, the ROC uses its strength at the point of attack.

ROCN naval units will have to be at sea trying to stop it too...and they have a fairly decent navy...but will be overwhelmed unless their land launched ASW and aircraft can help them out. You can be sure that the Taiwan military forces have been practicing for and preparing for this for over 20 years, figuring they would be facing a much larger and numerically superior foe.

In the end, their best bet at sea is still their subs and using them during the period of time immediately preceding a landing.

Re: US think tank head urges Taiwan to cut military power against China

Jeff Head said:

They ended up flying over to Iran and giving themselves up to Iran rather than take to the air and fight the US. I do not believe the ROCAF will refuse to fight the PLAAF.

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Weren't quite a few jets in shelters annihilated as well (my memory is blurred)? Or were those underground troop facilities? I distinctly recall much coverage regarding the use of bunker busters in some form against stashed collections of troops, tanks or planes.

And that is exactly what this strategy allows Taiwan to do...conserve that power so they can face the attacks as the come across the straits, rather than most of them being destroyed by the intense (numbering probably in the thousands) ballistic missile barrage that will precede such a landing.

So, they protect the ones on the ground from the ballistic missiles while maintaining a credible combat air patrol during it, instead of losing far too many of them on the groundf during the missile barrages, and then, as the PLA lifts that barage so its own vessels can land, the ROC uses its strength at the point of attack.

ROCN naval units will have to be at sea trying to stop it too...and they have a fairly decent navy...but will be overwhelmed unless their land launched ASW and aircraft can help them out. You can be sure that the Taiwan military forces have been practicing for and preparing for this for over 20 years, figuring they would be facing a much larger and numerically superior foe.

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Depending on how comprehensive the initial PLA bombardment of Taiwan's military structure will be, there may or may not be a CAP left -- that is to say, we can expect an initial bombardment to be followed up by PLAAF to mop up any remaining fighters. There's also the danger of putting some birds into the air, that while they're up, every remaining, valid airstrip the PLA can ID will be targeted effectively ruling out any ROCAF resistance after the first few waves of bombardment.
Nor do the PLA exactly need to lift continued SRBM, LACM or MRLS strikes against more inland bases and C4I centers when they're assaulting a beachhead.

In the end, their best bet at sea is still their subs and using them during the period of time immediately preceding a landing.

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Agreed. Although the shift in the balance of power is becoming increasingly one sided to the point of becoming irreversible. With more and larger amphibious assault ships on the horizon with a greater number of surface combatants with comprehensive ASW capability, more tactical and strategic transporters, not to mention airpower in both air superiority, strike and AEWC, ELINT... Things really aren't looking good for prospects of a taiwanese defence against invasion in the next few decades.

Fortunately if things keep going the way they are that should never come to pass either, but hey, this is a military forum.

Franklin said:

The entire debate of a Taiwanese army consisting of 65000 or 130000 soldiers is moot because the Taiwanese during times of war can call up more than 1,6 million reservists.

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There is an issue with equipment, as the Army is last in line to receive budget for major new purchases. How many years has it been since ROCA received any new MBT's? Or even major upgrades to their existing M-60 fleet? IMO it's not beyond TW domestic industry's capability to produce upgrades like the M60T Sabra.

Re: US think tank head urges Taiwan to cut military power against China

Bltizo said:

Weren't quite a few jets in shelters annihilated as well (my memory is blurred)? Or were those underground troop facilities? I distinctly recall much coverage regarding the use of bunker busters in some form against stashed collections of troops, tanks or planes.

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The Iraqis had some hardened shelters...basically aircraft shelters made of very thick concrete.

Such structures were relatively easy for the US to target and penetrate. There were also some underground facilities...but they were basically on ralatively flat terrain and dug in underground...and a lot of those were C&C type facilities. The US was successful in penetrating those too...most often with air launched penetrators. In order to assure that type of attack you have to enjoy air dominance , which the US did.

But that is a lot different than having a full support facility inside a mountain of granite with multiple entrances, and where some of those entrances are in very narrow and twising valleys making the flight profuile very difficult.

In addition, it is not clear that that PLAAF will achieve air dominance over Taiwan very quickly. The ROCAF has been planning for this in great detail for decades and has all sorts of contingencies from these very hardened facilities in mountains to literally hundreds or even thousands of various roadways set up to receive aircraft and support them outside of normal air bases.

Anyhow, as you say, hopefully we will never have to find out.