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Some members might be hyping up the value of this upgrade a little me thinks.

Sure, an AESA will give the F16 a radar range boost, but it will still not come close to the range of the AESA on the KJ2000.

As Blitzo pointed out, it is the force multipliers that will make all the difference here. And as I.e has pointed out, the PLA's primary means of taking out the ROCAF is going to be with SRBMs and cruise missiles instead of trying to shoot them all down.

I mentioned this before, but the PLAAF can pretty much take out most of the ROCAF without their fighters having to take a single missile shot.

Just send a massive wave of Flankers up as the first wave. When the ROCAF scramble everything they have to intercept, the Flankers turn back to hide behind S300 and HQ9 batteries while cruise and ballistic missiles crater the runways. All the PLA needs to do is pop off a few missiles every time it looks like they just about finished fixing up a runway to keep all the ROCAF birds up in the air till their fuel runs out.

If the ROCAF want to make a fight out of it, they will have to come within PLA SAM range, while all carrying AA loads. With KJ2000 and other long range assets up, if they tried to land on specially planned bits of highway, the PLA will see and can direct some cruise missiles or JH7s over to take those birds out on the ground before they can get up again.

Taiwan's total lack of strategic depth means that any conventional fighter the ROCAF operates will be faced with almost impossible odds if the PLAAF used the most simple of stratagems as demonstrated above.

I will never figure out why they didn't opt for the AV8 harrier when it was still in production, and unless they get the F35B, they frankly haven't got a prayer no matter what upgrades you give their F16s.

plawolf said:

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I will never figure out why they didn't opt for the AV8 harrier when it was still in production, and unless they get the F35B, they frankly haven't got a prayer no matter what upgrades you give their F16s.

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Because they weren' t offered any? Maybe the RN/RAF want to sell them some of those sitting in hangars now, oops, US has already bought those for spares.
F35B?? -if its not cancelled!
Will they win against the PRC in an all out war. Of course not. Will those in Beijing be willing to pay the price is the question and any new equipment for the ROC will make that price in blood and treasure higher.

While the actual sale could be finalized and authorized as soon as before the end of this year, even with work begin right away the first sample to actually undergo the upgrading work won't begin a year later at the earliest - all pending on the tender of the AESA radar and the engine upgrade study. Then you've shipping the first batch of F-16 to US by ship (the tanker support as stated on the proposal might only cover the return leg of the completed F-16), a year at the factory, a year followed for test flight to ensure all integration works as they should, then return to Taiwan...that means at the earliest, the first batch of upgraded F-16 won't be ready before 2014...

PLAAF could minimize the impact of this by fielding J-10B in significant number and improved variant of J-11B (decked out in similar grade of hardware) by then; as for other things I need not repeat what others have said earlier.

Still, it has yet proven once again all China could do in response is "diplomatic protest", while cracking the whip on the R&D and military-industrial complexes to churn out comparable stuff...y'know, that might help the PLAAF to yank more budget on the next fiscal year.

MwRYum said:

Still, it has yet proven once again all China could do in response is "diplomatic protest",.

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All they did to Paris 20 years ago was close one lousy consulate. Whooppee! The guys in Beijing are true paper tigers and now that they are all used to driving their luxo Euro cars and sipping cognac they are even more soft than they were 20 years ago!

MwRYum said:

Still, it has yet proven once again all China could do in response is "diplomatic protest"

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Which isn't a surprise since the deal was calculated so it would only warrant a "diplomatic protest".

cptplt said:

All they did to Paris 20 years ago was close one lousy consulate. Whooppee! The guys in Beijing are true paper tigers and now that they are all used to driving their luxo Euro cars and sipping cognac they are even more soft than they were 20 years ago!

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Here's a thought, why do people feel the need to upgrade their military against paper tigers?

xywdx said:

Which isn't a surprise since the deal was calculated so it would only warrant a "diplomatic protest".

Here's a thought, why do people feel the need to upgrade their military against paper tigers?

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That's why some actually missed the "good'o days" when Mao or Deng was in charge - not for anything, but those two would put up a tougher stance in situations like this...still, those who think that way are generally muppets if you ask me.

Now, people don't know if it's a paper tiger until you can take a look at the back of it...it's like back in '91 @ 1st Gulf War, most were shocked by how fast the Iraqi army crumbled...y'know, world's 5th and all that, in just 100 days smashed to the ground...

MwRYum said:

That's why some actually missed the "good'o days" when Mao or Deng was in charge - not for anything, but those two would put up a tougher stance in situations like this...still, those who think that way are generally muppets if you ask me.

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Well circumstances have changed. After a few decades of consolidating its power I'd expect PRC to take arms sales to Taiwan and other "core interests" to be pursued with more political backing... And by that time its projected economic position should deter major clashes as well.

Besides its not like sales to Taiwan in recent years have changed the overall trajectory of the balance of power in the strait. It's more principle than anything, and with improving relations with the island, growing economic clout and importance of current ties with the US, anything too beyond diplomatic protest probably won't be good for anyone.

Now, people don't know if it's a paper tiger until you can take a look at the back of it...it's like back in '91 @ 1st Gulf War, most were shocked by how fast the Iraqi army crumbled...y'know, world's 5th and all that, in just 100 days smashed to the ground...

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Yes but we could apply that view to every nation's military... And the Iraqis weren't inexperienced either, there was the Iran Iraq war still in their minds.
Besides I think the original statement was more in relation to how the Chinese politicians weren't willing to "act" against arms sales and were thus paper tigers... But at the moment that is probably the best thing they can do.

You'd be hard pressed to get logical backing if you wanted to claim the PLA was a paper tiger.

Bltizo said:

Still I think this is the best anyone could have hoped for; US can say they're still supporting Taiwan, ROCAF gets some better planes, PLAAF/China won't be massively worried but might accelerate some of their existing fighter programs to have, or keep moving the balance of power in their favour.

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Well its the best for what the power that be can pat themselves on the back for. Everybody saves face and can go back to their countries and say they did their best like you said. But still upgrading the existing ROCAF Viper fleet isn't going to solve the longer term problems of:
A)Replacement of the ROCAF's 60+ aging, unsafe F-5E/Fs
B)Potentially replacing the ROCAF's expensive to operate Mirage 2000-5s in the longer run

Upgrades are a force multiplier but the ROCAF may be just plain looking at 'less forces to multiply' in the future.

The AESA radar cited in this release here:


Is ROC government's request list, not what the US government has approved for sale.

Currently F-16 C/D (below block 60) are generally not equipped with AESA radar, only the F-16 E/F and F-16 IN models have AESA. However, do recall when the US government exported F-16 A/B to Taiwan, the planes were MLU spec and superior to the stock A/B model of the time. If the US refuse to export the AESA radar, then the best ROCAF can hope for is probably the AN/APG-68(V)9. It's not AESA but has decent detection range.

The Mirage 2000-5 is more expensive to operate than the F-16, but since the US is not exporting new F-16's to TW, they'd have to keep the Mirages flying as the F-5's are retired. Good luck getting upgrades from France in the future. The F-CK-1 (IDF) fleet will be an interesting question mark (?). The ROCAF is said to be using the IDF fleet as LIFT trainers for F-16 and Mirage-2000 pilots. Will there be a sense of urgency to allocate more funds to upgrade the existing IDF fleet? Only 71 IDF's were upgraded to C/D spec.

If the US is unwilling to export new F-16's, would they consider exporting new radars, or license local production/assembly of new radars for the IDF? There's also the original engine upgrade plans for installing TFE1088-12/TFE1042-70A or the GE J101/SF. The F-CK-1 A/B was a good match for PLAAF J-7's and J-8's of the day, but in today's environment I'm not even sure if it'd come out ahead vs. the FC-1/JF-17.

Another area of glaring weakness for ROCAF is dependency on US export munition. When PLAAF needs missiles, they just place an order with the local factory. When ROCAF needs AMRAAMS, they have to submit a request to uncle sam and cross their fingers. Taiwan's defense industry is not big enough to build its own modern fighter aircraft from scratch, but I think they should at least be able to make their own AAM's without importing seeker heads from USA. But alas, their mentality is that they don't love "Made in Taiwan".

MwRYum said:

Now, people don't know if it's a paper tiger until you can take a look at the back of it...it's like back in '91 @ 1st Gulf War, most were shocked by how fast the Iraqi army crumbled...y'know, world's 5th and all that, in just 100 days smashed to the ground...

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That's true, no one actually predicted the rate a superpower degrades in a decade period when Afghanistan alike, is nowhere comparable... y'know, tear the world apart strength and all that...

We are talking about "power" not "stance", right?