Syrian Crisis...2013

delft

Brigadier
There seems to be plenty of time. The Europeans told Kerry and he agreed, said radio news bulletins today, that the the assault will await the outcome of the UN investigation, which may take weeks, "to strengthen the position of the US". The outcome will include information about the quality of the nerve agent and perhaps even source of it.
The ships will have a nice time there, waiting. In the mean time the war will continue.
Btw Kerry has again promised to provide evidence to the European countries. And to others? Is he afraid his evidence will be shot down?
 
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And just exactly what is that production based on? Personally, I don't even think the Russian makers of the Kh31 would dare boast of such performance.
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Well, the 2005 book entitled (my translation) "Aviation of the Russian Air Force and Scientific and Technological Progress" estimate: From 60 to 90% probability of a hit by this rocket of a "destroyer-type target", meaning a ship with the radar cross-section of 5000 square meters, assuming "no countermeasures" by such a ship. This books also says "about three" hits would be needed so that a target looses the fighting capacity, that the Circular Error Probable is 5 meters (I noticed some Russian servers quote 5 -- 8 meters interval instead), and an intended use of this missile was against targets of up to 4500 t displacement.
 

SampanViking

The Capitalist
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I think you have to listen carefully to what exactly people have been saying and think equally carefully as to what exactly a real conflict situation in going to look like.

Essential comments from Putin are:

i) that he will aid Syria.
ii) that he will take action against those proven to have been behind the attack...
iii) ..to include backer states, especially Saudi Arabia in the wake of the misjudged threat by Saudi Foreign Minister Bander "Bush".

There is an overlooked element in this confrontation which is that Russia and Iran and the Saudi/Gulf Petro states are rival Petro blocks and that this is becoming the driver that Putin has been able to sell as the Russian "Core National Interest"

Set this against the other dimensions and you have a pending illegal act of aggression against a Sovereign State preceded by blatant support for salafist terrorists, mainly affiliated with Al-Qidea.

Unlike a missile attack, working out the likely strategy for the US attack is not rocket science.
The attack starts with Missiles to degrade C&C and AD targets and to open up Syrian airspace to round the clock air bombardment of the Syrian Arab Army. This to coincide with a terrorist offensive. So far so very Libya.
The difference would be the involvement of external national armies.
Turkey could easily enter Syria in the North, specifically to neutralist, its Kurdish threat poised by possible autonomy of Syria's Kurdish regions.
Israel could easily enter Lebanon and Syria to try and eliminate Hezbollah.
Both these countries and others could justify deeper invasion and occupation of Syrian territory to secure possible Chemical Weapons dumps to prevent them falling into the "wrong" hands.

The Russian led counter to this is equally simple.
1) Interdict the initial missile strike to ensure an effective AD capability and C&C in Syria
2) Declare a Total Air and Sea Exclusion Zone.
3) Secure sensitive borders with Russian and Allied Military Units to prevent supply to the terrorists and land invasion by neighbouring countries. To that end the sending of the Amphibious Assault Ships is very telling and it makes the (unsubstantiated) rumours of 071 Jinggangshan entering the Eastern Med all the more interesting.
4) Russia and Iran accuse the Gulf States and Saudi Arabia of sponsoring terrorism; including the Chemical Weapon Attack, which Gavluk attributed to weapons provided directly the Saudi's and launch their own missile strike against suspected WMD targets in these countries. Russia would undoubtedly cite the threat to the Winter Games and link it with possible further chemical atrocities at Sochi etc etc.

With the big boys providing cover, the Syrian airforce is not going to be wasted in futile missions against the USN, but preserved to defend Syrian Airspace against regional air attack and of course to help halt the terrorist offensive and counter any third nation invasion attempt.

It is also worth seeing what further help Russia and other allies will start to provide.
The SCO summit is next week and takes place just after a G20 where the whole of BRICS and many other leading developing nations have lined up behind the Russian stance.
It is not inconceivable that the defence of Syria will be adopted as policy by the SCO (Chinese media have been telegraphing its desire of this since last week) and this raises the prospects of SCO air and land forces being deployed to land bases in Syria directly.

I think we can all safely assume that an attack on Syria is indeed the Red Line of the Asian powers, that many have always suspected that it would be and a follow on to the first Russian Red Line of Georgia.

Is this another Cuban Missile Crisis in the making? it has the basic ingredients, but it also has others which did not exist fifty years ago. More likely this has the makings of America's very own "Suez" moment.
 

thunderchief

Senior Member
The Kh31P is an anti-radiation missile, and as such, carries a smaller warhead than the anti-ship Kh31A. The launch conditions and flight profiles of the two missiles are also extremely different. The Kh31P is designed to be released at medium to high altitude and adopts an almost ballistic trajectory towards its target. The Kh31A otoh, is designed to be dropped at extremely low altitude and adopt a sea skimming cruise profile to minimise detection range. Just look at the massive difference in fighter range figures when they adopt a Hi-Hi-Hi flight profile compared to a Low-Low-Low profile and its not have to see where the range difference between the two missile variants comes from.

I hope you could understand or translate Russian :D Kh-31 A and P have respectively 610 and 600 kg start mass . Warhead on Kh-31 A is 94 kg , and on Kh-31 P 87 kg . As you can see , there is no much difference ( I'm talking about basic models , not improved ones which Syrians do not posses ) :

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Both Kh-31 A and P could assume various flight profiles , although you are right - Kh-31A would usually drop very low to avoid detection , then pop-up very high and head for targeted ship performing violent maneuvers . That is the reason it has double less range then very similar Kh-31P - it would use all that fuel very fast .


What you are talking about is pre-programmed terminal evasives designed to thrown off gun based CISW. The SM2 will not be engaging the missiles at such extreme close range. At the range the SM2 will engage the Kh31s, they will still be in cruise mode, and they will be flying straight and level and won't be doing any sort of evasives. That's just how the missiles work. As such, any talk of agility is entirely moot, and the only thing that matters is the speed of the missile and its RCS.

In best case scenario ,SM-2 would engage Kh-31 A at 15-20 km from targeted ship . Considering delays in detection , man-in-the-loop , delays in firing etc ... Kh-31 A would be in downward path of its trajectory , where is extremely difficult to intercept .



That's the absolute worst thing they could do. An Aegis Burke has no blind spots. Attacking from different directions offers zero advantages against Burkes and USN crews. The only weakness the Burkes have, which the Syrians might be able to exploit to breach their defences is the limitation of the illuminators those SM2s depend on.

You are wrong . Burke could not detect objects under radar horizon . It would have to relay on AWACS . With limitations E-2 Hawkeye has , there is a posibility they won't be able to detect all of the attacking groups until they get to close . Especially if there is a decoy involved .


The exact number of targets each illuniator can paint simultaneously is restricted info for obvious reasons, but I would not expect more than half a dozen maximum under the best possible conditions. That means if the Syrians focus all the efforts on one specific point, there is a chance they might be able to overload the illuminator responsible for that area and overwhelm the ship's defences that way. But with co-operative engagement and the carrier's CAP, even that is a slim chance at best.

Attacking from multiple directions would just allow the USN to use multiple illuminators to direct more missiles at more targets at the same time.

Attacking from one directions means that all of the attacker will be detected at same time , and then possibly destroyed by concentrated fire from fighters on CAP and attacked ships . Coordinated attack from various directions would mean that at least some of the attackers may get trough .


Again, bad idea. The USN isnt going to fall for such an obvious ploy. Flying high would just make them easy targets for the surface group's SM2s, and also give the USN advanced warning and allow them to get more CAP in the air earlier.

Far better for the fighter escort to stick close with the strike package to remain undetected for as long as possible. Then, when the USN finds them, the fighters would push ahead of the strikers and keep the quick alert standby birds occupied while the strikers make a mad dash to get into firing range.

Decoy planes would obviously not fly close enough to be effectively engaged by SM-2 (SM-2 was not designed to engage maneuverable fighters at the edge of its flight envelope) . On the other hand , fighters on CAP would have to be alerted and to do something - in war you never know what is a decoy and what is a real deal . Overall , decoy force would definitely divert some attention from attacking groups .

Keeping fighter escort low with strike package is not a very good idea (to say the least :D ) . They would have less energy , less detection range , and less range with their weapons . Basically , sitting ducks without much use except to use up some missiles from defending CAP .
 

thunderchief

Senior Member
thunderchief: During MA-31 sales pitch Boeing said 20 g !
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and

Possible . Thanks for the info .

Sorry, no. The AEGIS system was designed to defend precisely against saturation attacks, and has gotten better with time at doing that against attacking missiles of all profiles.

And Kh-31 and latter Soviet/Russian missiles were designed to defeat AEGIS :D . We could go whole day like this , in reality , it is all about probability of kill . I'm certain that Kh-31 is advanced enough so in large saturation attack some will get trough .


You are talking about a force of five AEGIS ships, all of which will be linked in cooperative engagement. And a Horizon class anti-air destroyer complimenting them. No force of 20 SU-24s or Mig-29s with sixty missiles is going to breach that defense if (and this is the really critical part) the AEGIS vessels know they are coming and are prepared for them with the kinds of info they will get from their AWACS/AEW and their own sensors, and likely with a significant CAP of modern US and French aircraft prepared to intercept those aircraft.

Define breaching defense . If all of the 60 missiles get launched , there will be hell to pay on those ships . More realistic scenario is only 20 of this 60 missiles are launched at appropriate range , only 6 or 7 hit their targets with moderate damage , no ships sunk . Most of the attackers shoot down (around 20 planes ) , this would be some kind of victory for USN .



Again, the Kh-31, no matter what variety does not outrange the SMs. Maximum range for Kh-31 (and I do not think the Syrians have these missiles ) is about 140+km. It is more likely that they have the 90-100 km variety. Maximum range for the long range anti-air SMs carried on AEGIS destroyers (RIM-67 and RIM-174 latest variants) is 200 km. Those aircraft, even if they get past the CAP, are going to have to fly deep into the SM envelope to launch their missiles. IMHO, very few would get to do so.

Radar horizon .

The SM was designed to hit a missile, the Kh-31 and other SSMs were designed to hit a ship. They are maneuverable, but that maneuverability is not designed to perform drastic defensive maneuvers against individual attacking missiles.

SM-2 was designed to hit larger and less maneuverable missiles ( Kh-22 , P-500 ...) and bombers ( Tu-16 , Tu-22 ...) . It was upgraded but not that much , basic kinematic performance is basically same
 

Engineer

Major
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Tags: Allies fleet versus Russian fleet; Mediterranean sea; September 2013; Syria; opposing fleets;
 

asif iqbal

Lieutenant General
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Tags: Allies fleet versus Russian fleet; Mediterranean sea; September 2013; Syria; opposing fleets;

UK has the following

HMS Illustrious
HMS Bulwark
HMS Westminister
HMS Montrose

Plus 6 RFA vessels

RFA Mounts Bay
RFA Lyme bay
RFA Fort Austin
RFA Fort Victoria
RFA Caridan bay
RFA Diligence

That's 4 x RN and 6 x Royal Auxillary Fleet vessel that's 10 in total

Obviously we know that UK is not part of the military coalition against Syria but that's the assets they have in the region
 

asif iqbal

Lieutenant General
Don't forget the USN has a CSG in the Red Sea as well which can transit the Suez and be in the Med very quickly if called upon.

I don't know if anyone will believe me when I say this but it is said that if a Type 45 DDG sat in between Cyprus and the Coast of Egypt so just a little West from where those 6 Russian warships are off the coast of Syria, the Type 45 could cover all that area on its own, it could track everything at sea and airspace above it from that one location

I don't know how many miles of sea that is but thats the capability the Type 45 has make of that what you wish!
 
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