Syrian Crisis...2013

Re: Persian Gulf & Middle East News & Views

Look here is the thing Dolcevita. The Russians will not Shoot down American Cruise missiles so long as the US does not attempt a decapitation strike. The Obama Admin does not want any real risk so they will not attempt to liquidate Assad. Nor will there attacks do any real damage. Basically it is a drama. For Obama he wants to look tough. Putin Wants to look tough But Russia is not ready for a war. The US is not ready for a real war. So they will put up an act. Russia will park it's fleet but suffer some malfunction when the missiles launch. Putin will raise all kinds of protest at the security council, The US will veto Putin knows that, Just as Obama knows Putin and Xia will Veto if the US tries to call for action in the security council.
Putin and Xia will only back Assad so far, but the only person behind Assad 100% is Assad. Everyone is willing to look the other way or sell him out for the right price.
Here is Assad's position:
The IRGC/Hezbollah is backing him now, but if they feel the situation is right. They will grab him by the collar drag him against the wall and put a 7.62x39mm round into his brain pan. why? because he is a Alawite The IRGC is Shia. They will find a puppet in the Shia sect.

AQ and the Al-Nusra Front wants him dead they view him as a target. They are Sunni and Salafi if they win Alawites will be targeted for conversion or termination. they would hunt him to the ends of the earth.
Free Syrian army. Is a miss mash of players if they win he might live. on the lamb but it's likely a new stage of the Civil war will start.

Russia? Russia can offer little on the ground the best Russia could do would be to try and evacuate him. but they are just as likely to watch his execution rather then have a backlash like what happened to the US after she shielded the Shah. Russia is a Muslim nation. She has Fought insurgences against AQ and the like, on her own soil.

China could care less. They are happy to sell arms they will not hide or reinforce him.

The US is backing his enemies. If he begs maybe they would hide him... more likely put him on trial.

Basically No matter who wins he looses.

The likely Us Targets for attack are Assad's Air force. Why? Because Aircraft are the best method for dispersing Chemical weapons. Sadam used his air force twice against Iran and the Kirds. it gives the best aerosol dispersion.

Re: Persian Gulf & Middle East News & Views

Opening targets of the war are by far going to be Assads command and control and the integrated air defence so he can't strike back

Tommys will clear the way for fixed wing aircraft to take out the systems that can deliver the chemical weapons

Inside Syria there is real panic, Assads close family are moving out to Iran and Russia

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TerraN_EmpirE said:

Look here is the thing Dolcevita. The Russians will not Shoot down American Cruise missiles so long as the US does not attempt a decapitation strike. The Obama Admin does not want any real risk so they will not attempt to liquidate Assad. Nor will there attacks do any real damage. Basically it is a drama. For Obama he wants to look tough. Putin Wants to look tough But Russia is not ready for a war. The US is not ready for a real war. So they will put up an act. Russia will park it's fleet but suffer some malfunction when the missiles launch. Putin will raise all kinds of protest at the security council, The US will veto Putin knows that, Just as Obama knows Putin and Xia will Veto if the US tries to call for action in the security council.
Putin and Xia will only back Assad so far, but the only person behind Assad 100% is Assad. Everyone is willing to look the other way or sell him out for the right price.
Here is Assad's position:
The IRGC/Hezbollah is backing him now, but if they feel the situation is right. They will grab him by the collar drag him against the wall and put a 7.62x39mm round into his brain pan. why? because he is a Alawite The IRGC is Shia. They will find a puppet in the Shia sect.

AQ and the Al-Nusra Front wants him dead they view him as a target. They are Sunni and Salafi if they win Alawites will be targeted for conversion or termination. they would hunt him to the ends of the earth.
Free Syrian army. Is a miss mash of players if they win he might live. on the lamb but it's likely a new stage of the Civil war will start.

Russia? Russia can offer little on the ground the best Russia could do would be to try and evacuate him. but they are just as likely to watch his execution rather then have a backlash like what happened to the US after she shielded the Shah. Russia is a Muslim nation. She has Fought insurgences against AQ and the like, on her own soil.

China could care less. They are happy to sell arms they will not hide or reinforce him.

The US is backing his enemies. If he begs maybe they would hide him... more likely put him on trial.

Basically No matter who wins he looses.

The likely Us Targets for attack are Assad's Air force. Why? Because Aircraft are the best method for dispersing Chemical weapons. Sadam used his air force twice against Iran and the Kirds. it gives the best aerosol dispersion.

Click to expand...

Similar to Russia, China does care to a certain degree because of her long term commitments to Iran which will be left standing alone once Assad falls.

The easiest way is to disperse chemical weapons is to use light artillery like the rebels have done as shown by quite a few YT videos. After hundreds of Tomahawks, the Syrian Air Force will be history anyway.

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What about the USS Harry S Truman is it and its strike group heading for Syria ?

The Syrian navy won't be much of a threat to the US forces in the region. Its only has 2 Petya III class ASW frigates and 8 Osa I class missile boats and 12 Osa II class missile boats. The Syrians still have a few smaller patrol crafts with missile's on them but the Osa class seems to be the mainstay of their navy. They don't have any submarines. The Yakhonts are only land based i don't think any of their planes can launch them.

In the Syrian air force only the upgraded MiG-29's could potentially be a threat but after 2,5 years of war i don't know about the state of those planes or their pilots. I don't think the Syrians have the S-300 missile system but they do have quite advanced BUK missile systems.

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If Assad is defeated Syria will be destroyed as Libya was. Perhaps that is what the US administration wants. They don't care about AQ except as a target for propaganda. They don't care about the Christians or other minorities. They don't care about any Syrians just as they don't care about the Egyptians killed in the coup that should not be called a coup.
I wonder if Russia sees an opportunity to invoke the Responsibility to Protect doctrine for the Syrian people?

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Well it's clear by Obama speech the attack and war is coming

It's a matter of when not if

Re: Persian Gulf & Middle East News & Views

Raw footage of staging events for the Western media.

[video=youtube;fpmFIWm1dWw]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fpmFIWm1dWw#t=162[/video]

Re: Persian Gulf & Middle East News & Views

For Syrian Air Defence, as AF she have many, many launchers ! with ofc almost all Soviet/Russian models, one collection !

I precise Syrian Air Defence is one independent service, 40000 h,

Equipment :
48 SA-5
320 SA-2
148 SA-3
200 SA-6
60 SA-8
20 SA-9
35 SA-13
? SA-19
50 SA-22
48 SA-11
total about 950

Many old

And thousands of guns, 23/100 mm.

The SA-22 Pantsyr ( similar to Kashtan ) is a very good system, 2*ciws and SAM 20 km range.

In more 48 powerful Russian S-300PMU-1/SA-20A ( 150 km ) are on order or delivered ?

SOC ( Sean O'connor ) one of the best specialist say 0 in service in his wonderful paper of July, on S-300/400.

US ( for China ) and Israel want stealth F-35 especially to counter these highly efficient SAM systems with their stealth.

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A deal has been struck between the Assad regime and the US, US will not go for regime change and attack the Presidential place and in return Assad will not retaliate against the strikes

If US goes for regime change then Assad and will throw everything he has and Hezbollah has nothing to losse and will enter the fight

In the interest not to escalate the the war US will make some surgical strikes and just reprimand Assads regime for using chemical weapons nothing more

It will not go for regime change or change the balance of power, both side agree this is from head of Israels intelligence agency

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asif iqbal said:

Opening targets of the war are by far going to be Assads command and control and the integrated air defence so he can't strike back

Tommys will clear the way for fixed wing aircraft to take out the systems that can deliver the chemical weapons

Inside Syria there is real panic, Assads close family are moving out to Iran and Russia

Click to expand...

Possible but I am betting Putin's line in the sand is no decaps. so command and control may not be allowed for risk of that.

delft said:

If Assad is defeated Syria will be destroyed as Libya was. Perhaps that is what the US administration wants. They don't care about AQ except as a target for propaganda. They don't care about the Christians or other minorities. They don't care about any Syrians just as they don't care about the Egyptians killed in the coup that should not be called a coup.
I wonder if Russia sees an opportunity to invoke the Responsibility to Protect doctrine for the Syrian people?

Click to expand...

The Obama Admin has no grand plan and never has it's a reactionary Administration. Russia views the "Arab spring" as a threat and possible conflict that could re spark the Chechen's

Franklin said:

What about the USS Harry S Truman is it and its strike group heading for Syria ?

The Syrian navy won't be much of a threat to the US forces in the region. Its only has 2 Petya III class ASW frigates and 8 Osa I class missile boats and 12 Osa II class missile boats. The Syrians still have a few smaller patrol crafts with missile's on them but the Osa class seems to be the mainstay of their navy. They don't have any submarines. The Yakhonts are only land based i don't think any of their planes can launch them.

In the Syrian air force only the upgraded MiG-29's could potentially be a threat but after 2,5 years of war i don't know about the state of those planes or their pilots. I don't think the Syrians have the S-300 missile system but they do have quite advanced BUK missile systems.

Click to expand...

Fact is Israel has already struck Syria on a number of occasions. There was no evidence of Syrian reaction in terms of shooting back or even attempting resistance nor evidence they even detected the Israelis until things started going boom This may indicated that Assad's forces are not prepared to use anti air assets or are unwilling to.
The Syrian Navy is not a threat to American forces at this point of time.
the Russian Navy is the only Naval asset in the area who does pose a threat but as we have gone over its a show of strength not a act of strength.

cn_habs said:

Similar to Russia, China does care to a certain degree because of her long term commitments to Iran which will be left standing alone once Assad falls.

The easiest way is to disperse chemical weapons is to use light artillery like the rebels have done as shown by quite a few YT videos. After hundreds of Tomahawks, the Syrian Air Force will be history anyway.

Click to expand...

The easiest is not the most effective dispersal is uneven. Obama is targeting Assad not the Rebels he will attack the Air fields, Crater the Runways and knock the fighters, Fighter/bombers and fixed wing air craft out of commission. Assad's only vertical lift assets are Choppers Hinds, Hips, Gazelles and Hoplites. the Problem with relying on China is they are in the wrong place to really help Assad. but in the end the Great Obama strike is just a fireworks show for the world. nothing is really going to change.