Syrian Crisis...2013

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Dolcevita

Major
Re: Persian Gulf & Middle East News & Views

Jeff Head said:
Obama painted himself into a corner. He has foolishly put his (and by extension) the US national credibility on the line in a situation where there are no US national interests in play.

If he does nothing, he will be viewed as an obvious paper tiger with no credibility.

So, I expect we will see a fairly heavy Tomahawk attack now (since the UK backed out), but one that does not materially change things on the ground. He will crow (as will the press and DNC) about how "tough" he is on WMDs and Assad, Putin will loudly and angrily protest, and then things will move forward as they were.

That's probably the best we can hope for.

As always, the wrinkle is Iran and what they will do. Putin may be able to control Assad, but he cannot control the Mullahs in Iran. It they chose to attack Israel during this...all bets are off.

In addition...in such a situation, particularly where Russian and US vessels are in relative near prxomity to each other and on opposite sides of this...any mistakes can rapidly escalate out of control.
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If the Russians intercepts and start shooting down the Tomahawks, President Putin will reinforce his tough guy image and enhance Russian prestige among his allies. What will President Obama do then?
 
Jeff Head

Jeff Head

General
Registered Member
Re: Persian Gulf & Middle East News & Views

Dolcevita said:
If the Russians intercepts and start shooting down the Tomahawks, President Putin will reinforce his tough guy image and enhance Russian prestige among his allies. What will President Obama do then?
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Russia will not do that. That would be a needless escalation.

That would invite them to be immediately targeted as a military player in this. And with the US assets ion the area, and the French, they would lose badly and it would lead to a much larger conflict. No need for that kind of risk over a few dozen Tomahawk missiles that will not make a difference anyway.

Unless the US crosses some line Putin has set...and probably communicated via back channels to the Obama administration...IMHO, things will go as they go and everyone will talk loudly and then move on.
 
kwaigonegin

kwaigonegin

Colonel
Re: Persian Gulf & Middle East News & Views

Dolcevita said:
If the Russians intercepts and start shooting down the Tomahawks, President Putin will reinforce his tough guy image and enhance Russian prestige among his allies. What will President Obama do then?
Click to expand...

Personally I don't think the Russians will intercept any CMs unless they come relatively close by so it all depends on where they moor their ships relative to the ships firing and their missile paths and trajectories.
Either way let's hope that doesn't happen because once the Russians starts firing even if it's at American missiles only and for defensive purposes, things will get very very dicey and it's a card neither side wants to play!
Obama has a big ego and if the TLAMs are intercepted mid course it would mean mission failed and the Pentagon at that time will view the Russians as actively participating in a war and proceed to Plan B. Putin has an even bigger ego and if he gives the order to take down American missiles that means he is prepared to take it to the next step as well.
If USN then launch strike aircrafts and ASMs against Russians ships then we're talking an actual war but that is highly unlikely unless the Pentagon and Putin goes absolutely crazy.
 
bd popeye

bd popeye

The Last Jedi
VIP Professional
Re: Persian Gulf & Middle East News & Views

USS Stout (DDG 55) has arrived in the eastern Mediterranean .

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By Mike Hixenbaugh
The Virginian-Pilot
© August 30, 2013

NORFOLK

A fifth Norfolk-based destroyer has arrived in the eastern Mediterranean Sea as President Barack Obama contemplates military intervention in Syria. But according to a defense official, the ship has not joined four others already positioned within striking distance of the war-torn country.

The guided-missile destroyer Stout left Norfolk earlier this month on a regularly scheduled deployment and is expected to eventually relieve one of the ships currently on patrol near the coast of Syria.

The guided missile destroyers Gravely, Mahan, Ramage and Barry, each equipped with dozens of Tomahawk cruise missiles, are likely running through training scenarios as they await word from Washington. The Mahan and Barry each were nearing the end of their deployment when they received orders last week to remain in the eastern Mediterranean.

The Navy typically keeps just two destroyers in the region as part of the service's guided-missile defense program.
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P

PanAsian

Major
Re: Persian Gulf & Middle East News & Views

Alright, with the UK out, I think the US should at least wait until the UN investigation is completed before doing anything. And if there is evidence that the Syrian government used chemical weapons, it will be the time to present it when the UN report comes out.

After a case has been made to the international community preferably with solid evidence, I think the US should limit itself to a punitive strike on the specific Syrian government unit which used chemical weapons. Anything beyond that may be too risky and there clearly is no political will to do much if anything.
 
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D

Dolcevita

Major
Re: Persian Gulf & Middle East News & Views

Jeff Head said:
Russia will not do that. That would be a needless escalation.

That would invite them to be immediately targeted as a military player in this. And with the US assets ion the area, and the French, they would lose badly and it would lead to a much larger conflict. No need for that kind of risk over a few dozen Tomahawk missiles that will not make a difference anyway.

Unless the US crosses some line Putin has set...and probably communicated via back channels to the Obama administration...IMHO, things will go as they go and everyone will talk loudly and then move on.
Click to expand...

Perhaps Yes. But perhaps as somebody already said. More wishful thinking. The Russians already deployed their ships. no need for any of these drama if there is a behind the scene agreement and everyone agrees to not cross each other's threshold. Time will tell. Right.
 
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FORBIN

FORBIN

Lieutenant General
Registered Member
Re: Persian Gulf & Middle East News & Views

Syrian AF have many fighter-bomber, about 500 ( in more 70 L-39 used for light attack ) but many are old about 400,
the only modern are 20 Su-24 and about 60 Mig-29 but number no sure because the civil war and many things...

This is actually an air force equipped as countries of Warsaw Pact : Mig-21, 23, 25 ,Su-22...you have almost all models !

Number of Mig-29, some sources say between 40/80, some upgraded to M/M2 standard ? or also SMT ?

All this number are before civil war, now and operationnal number ???
 
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