Submarine first, Carrier second

fishhead

Banned Idiot
It depends.

For a war between major powers, I will prefer subs. People's concept of sub still remains in WW2 stage, but actually sub technology progress is far more ahead than carriers since then. Today you don't need a sub to go a few hundreds of yard to a ship to fire torpedos - you can fire an anti-ship missile hundred of km away. The noise of a combat fleet group can be picked up by sub's sonar hundred of miles away. Anti-sub operation is very costy and can't be maintained for 24/7. There hasn't been a war between sub and carrier since WW2, you will be surprised to find how vulnerable a carrier is in next warfare.

But for a war between major power and a small country, carrier is still a good investment, and much useful than subs. So both are needed if you can afford to have.
 

Jon K

New Member
The presence of a carrier near a conflict zone can and will make a significant differance, IMO.
Having that many figher planes rather close to an enemy provides a lot of flexibility and short notice reactions. CAS is a very good example were airpower stationed in the vicinity is essentiall, as well as interdiction.

No the carriers are not that powerful tools to keep near combat zone. Let's take a historical example from Operation Iraqi Freedom. During Operation Iraqi Freedom 232 USN fighters flew a total of 5568 sorties, supported by 2058 tanker sorties. (not counting instances where USN planes used USAF or allied tanker support). The fighters delivered 5300 bombs. This was done during 31 days. The effort required a total of 5 carrier strike groups. In total, some 61 000 men afloat were involved with a total of 408 aircraft.

Historically, during OIF the 4 B-2's deployed dropped 583 bombs. If we use this effectiveness as a measure, 9 B-2's would have been able to do the bomb dropping of USN CSG's involved. Of course one cannot do the comparison as directly, but provides food for thought, doesn't it?

Although keeping a long range aircraft loitering to do CAS isn't cheap, it is still cheaper than keeping a CSG on station and flying a lot of small planes. Especially as one bomber can deliver the same bomb load as 40 fighters, or about the size of carrier air wing. Of course it cannot be at multiple locations at once, but with bomb glide kits there's ways round it. For quick reaction, you have to count that if carrier is situated, say, 300nm away, it will take time for planes to get into action. Maintaining a CAS coverage with short legged airplanes depending on carrier based tankers is extremely sortie intensive.

For closer range, in order to support amphibious landings, 155mm extended range munitions and various land attack missiles can be used. UCAV's required for CAS and other duties to support amphibious landings don't need to be launched aboard large carriers. LPH's/LHD's will still be required.
 
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fishhead

Banned Idiot
From tactic point of view, we can no longer quote WW2 experience.

1. In WW2, a sub has to go to very close range of the ship to attack it
2. In WW2, a sub has to be in periscope status to attack
3. In WW2, a sub sails on sea surface 90% of the time

That gave the chance of airplane strike against subs. At the end of WW2, Germany invented the special valve so their sub could cruise submerged with their diesel engine, it significantly reduced the lost rate, but came too late.

Today you don't need any of them, but range of a sub weaponary system is extended much bigger. Plus AIP, extended sonar range, nuclear propelling.....

It will be a total new warfare. Even in WW2, if a sub could fight in the range of 10-20 kms, instead of 1-2 kms, the whole war history would be re-written. Today a sub basically has the same firing range as a warship, it's a 10 time gain as for its weapon system improvement.
 
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IDonT

Senior Member
VIP Professional
Fighters are good for air combat, but the question is, do they provide the service their cost implies? JSF costs 67mill USD, perhaps more. Their primary weapon, AMRAAM, costs 300k USD a piece. They are flown by pilots needing extensive and continuos training, every hour of which puts a strain on airframe. Air wing of 48 JSF's alone will cost some 3200 million USD at least.

Now, a SM-6 are more expensive than AMRAAM's, costing some 2 mill USD a piece, but can engage targets at virtually same range as realistic JSF sortie and over the radar horizon using outside target information. SAM's can also respond to massed attacks easier, are easier to keep in readiness and do not require pilots to be put into danger. (Although with UCAV's this is a moot point) SAM's can also fight ballistic missile threat which fighter aircraft cannot.

The best way to take out an air threat is with an aircraft period. You are forgetting certain aspects such as initiative, mobility, and preemption. While the SM-6 can engage targets at such range, it cannot destroy them at their air bases, shot them down through offensive counter air inside their territory, or mess up a strike force's timing through interdiction. It can't attack a air strike group from a different axis. A SAM, once fired cannot be refueled and rearmed and brought back into a fight. Finally all SAM inherently suffer from the disadvantage that they always start their fight at 0 elevation and 0 altitude. An Amraam fired at altitude and at high speeds can double its range.

Secondly, no SAM ship can carry its own AEW and ELINT support.

Yes, but technology has leapt since E-2 was introduced in 1964, 43 years ago. Today only the radar transmitter and power source need to placed onboard aircraft, while back-office duties can be handled somewhere else. A helo UAV AEW is only an example, aerostat option is also viable.

The problem with helo AEW is not its lack of space of electronics but the limitations of a helicopter.

1.) Slower speed, it can't get to its patrol station as fast as an E-2
2.) The higher the helicopter goes, the less efficient it is. At high altitudes, their is not enough air for its rotor blades to cut through forcing it to work harder. This limits the helicopter's range and altitude. For an AEW aircraft, altitude is one of its key components, the higher it is the farther it can "see" over the horizon.
3.) Design- it is very awkward to put a radar dome on an aircraft with a large rotor on its top. As a result, a compromise is made by installing it on its side and bottom. This results in a smaller radar dome.

E-2 Radar Dome
DN-SD-04-13416.jpg


Sea King Radar Dome

seaking-aew_09.jpg


Farther the ocean they are, more right you are, but every mile farther from targets means less sorties and less payload on target.

You are forgetting aerial refueling that is available to carriers. A missile is subject to the same constraints. Russia's long range missiles were as large as aircraft. A 25,000 ton Kirov were can only carry 20 of them.


I certainly agree carriers are not a bad naval investments all. The question is, whether they are optimal investments and whether carrier really has a long term naval role. Remember that during late 1930's quite much everyone in naval business was quickly procuring battleships. Battleships were useful during the war, but it may be well asked whether they were ultimately needed.

The question here is not whether a carrier is a bad investment but whether air power is a bad investment. After all that is what a carrier is, a moving floating airfiled. Considering that the fastest and most effective way to deliver ordinance on target is an aircraft, I don't see that change anytime soon.
 

fishhead

Banned Idiot
Considering that the fastest and most effective way to deliver ordinance on target is an aircraft, I don't see that change anytime soon.

The problem is, for today's carrier combat group, anti-sub operation and Air-Air, Air to ground combat is self-conflicting. Even E2 can spot a sub, a regular F18 or JSF just can't do much about it.

To equip more anti-sub aircrafts means less regular combat airplanes available, and that's the whole purpose of a carrier. Also today if a sub equips with anti-air missiles, then even Sea Kings can't face a sub, let alone attack it, better run for their lives.
 

IDonT

Senior Member
VIP Professional
The problem is, for today's carrier combat group, anti-sub operation and Air-Air, Air to ground combat is self-conflicting. Even E2 can spot a sub, a regular F18 or JSF just can't do much about it.

To equip more anti-sub aircrafts means less regular combat airplanes available, and that's the whole purpose of a carrier. Also today if a sub equips with anti-air missiles, then even Sea Kings can't face a sub, let alone attack it, better run for their lives.

Putting an anti-air missiles on subs does not change the fact that subs, once localized, is in deep trouble, especially if 2 helicopters are hunting it. For one thing subs has no way of detecting air contacts passively. Trust me when I say this that no sane Submarine commander will try to go to periscope depth if their is a torpedo on the water, even if it is not targeted on him. Putting torpedoes on the water, even if not accurately targeted is one of the main tactics against subs. No sub commander dares ignore it thus messing his targeting.

Secondly, targetting hundreds of miles using passive sonar is not as easy as you make it out to be. There are things such as convergence zones, salinity level, water temperature, etc that can ruin your targeting. Even the Soviets did not rely on 1st party target acquisition for their OScar SSGNs. These needed a third party targeting info. That third party is more likely easier to take care of than the sub. Then there are things such as neutral shipping and civilian ships in the path of the missile.

That leaves torpedoes which submarine usually relies on passive detection, not risking active sonar or a periscope observation. So to determine where a unit is heading the submarine needs Target motion analysis. This requires several minutes of passive contact and if the contact starts to zig-zag this process must restart.
 

Sczepan

Senior Member
VIP Professional
I'm not sure if you're trying to say that carriers are undetectable - I'm probably just reading it wrong. Nowadays it's pretty easy to track massive ships like carriers. ....
I say NEARLY - because the CBG is dislozed in a big aerea, not compact ship by ship; you can't say its a CBG if you localice the ships by radar, satellite or sub - the enemy may detect on or two ships of the group, but you have to detect the carrier himself and attack this mooving target by crossing a deep graded defence line ... at least I agree with Jeff Head

...
The missions for a Chinese carrier would (in my opinion) be
1) to sit in the middle of the Pacific and discourage the U.S. or Japan from intervening in a conflict with Taiwan;
2) to establish a presence near conflict areas where China wants to exert influence (over smaller countries like Iran or Venezuela);
3) to provide logistical support for a humanitarian relief effort in the case of a natural disaster.

This are still viable missions, even the carrier couldn't survive an attack by a major power.

... Ami.
my 5 cents: the missions would be:
1) to support amphibious operations with helos (attack and transport) and light-wight ground attack planes in a conflict with Taiwan
2) to establish a permanent moving presence in the south chinese sea between Singapore and the Mainland
3) to cross in the west and middle of the Indic in protecting the chinese sealines (oil ...) between Africa and Pakistan / Myanmar
4) to establish a presence near conflict areas where China wants to exert influence (like Iran or Venezuela);
5) to provide logistical support for a humanitarian relief effort in the case of a natural disaster.
 

Pointblank

Senior Member
The problem is, for today's carrier combat group, anti-sub operation and Air-Air, Air to ground combat is self-conflicting. Even E2 can spot a sub, a regular F18 or JSF just can't do much about it.

To equip more anti-sub aircrafts means less regular combat airplanes available, and that's the whole purpose of a carrier. Also today if a sub equips with anti-air missiles, then even Sea Kings can't face a sub, let alone attack it, better run for their lives.

1. With the increasing amount of multi-role aircraft, many of those missions can be combined in a single airframe.

2. If a E-2 detects a enemy sub, it is mostly likely on the surface. That means it is vulnerable to aircraft. A quick pass over the sub with cannon fire will discourage the submarine from submerging as it would have 20mm holes in the hull.

3. The current USN Nimitz carriers are no where near full combat load. The Nimitz can carry a maximum of 85 aircraft, but in reality, Nimitz class carriers usually carry a complement of around 64 aircraft. Therefore, a total of around 19 aircraft can be assigned to the carrier on top of the standard complement.

4. The Sea King is no longer assigned to ASW role in the USN. It was replaced by the Sikorsky SH-60 SeaHawk. The only nations that continue to use the Sea King in the ASW role is Canada (due to be replaced by the Sikorsky H-92, dubbed CH-148 Cyclone), Italy, Brazil, etc.

5. All ASW helicopters are equipped with aerial countermeasures. This affords a level of protection against SAM attacks.
 

fishhead

Banned Idiot
Putting an anti-air missiles on subs does not change the fact that subs, once localized, is in deep trouble, especially if 2 helicopters are hunting it. For one thing subs has no way of detecting air contacts passively. Trust me when I say this that no sane Submarine commander will try to go to periscope depth if their is a torpedo on the water, even if it is not targeted on him. Putting torpedoes on the water, even if not accurately targeted is one of the main tactics against subs. No sub commander dares ignore it thus messing his targeting.

I agree in large. But hey, you never know what will happen in real combat, and I wont be surprised to hear a sub shooting down couple of airplanes. Also there is way of "detecting air contacts passively". Even PLA daily reported that, their sub detected radar signal of anti-sub operation and went a deep dive.

Secondly, targetting hundreds of miles using passive sonar is not as easy as you make it out to be. There are things such as convergence zones, salinity level, water temperature, etc that can ruin your targeting. Even the Soviets did not rely on 1st party target acquisition for their OScar SSGNs. These needed a third party targeting info. That third party is more likely easier to take care of than the sub. Then there are things such as neutral shipping and civilian ships in the path of the missile.

A carrier combat group is very nosie, both in radio and in sonar signals, and both can be picked up by a sub and location calculation is not that complicated today. Given a rough location, anti-ship missiles can be fired and they can cruise the specific area until picking up a target - there are enough targets in a carrier combat group.

Pointblank said:
1. With the increasing amount of multi-role aircraft, many of those missions can be combined in a single airframe.

2. If a E-2 detects a enemy sub, it is mostly likely on the surface. That means it is vulnerable to aircraft. A quick pass over the sub with cannon fire will discourage the submarine from submerging as it would have 20mm holes in the hull.

I disgree these two. Multi-role aircraft doesn't mean you mix up A/A, A/S with ASW operation, never heard of it.

To attack sub with cannon is not that easy, the attacking airplane has to fly high, it's not like attacking ship with missile. The search radar signal can be easily picked up by sub as well to give it time for a deep dive.
 
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IDonT

Senior Member
VIP Professional
A carrier combat group is very nosie, both in radio and in sonar signals, and both can be picked up by a sub and location calculation is not that complicated today. Given a rough location, anti-ship missiles can be fired and they can cruise the specific area until picking up a target - there are enough targets in a carrier combat group.

You are under estimating the difficulties in targeting a target hundreds of miles away using only passive sonar.

One issue is convergence zones. Sound waves that are radiated down into the ocean bend back up to the surface in great arcs due to the effect of pressure on sound. Under the right conditions these waves will then reflect off the surface and repeat another arc. Is the sound you hear the straight line sound or the radiated sound? This will affect your range.

Then there is thermocline issue. Ocean temperature varies with depth, but at between 30 and 100 metres there is often a marked change. This is called the thermocline. This divides the warmer surface water and the cold, still waters that make up the rest of the ocean. Regarding sonar, a sound originating from one side of the thermocline tends to remain on that side because it is 'reflected' off the layer change.

Both issues will mess up your targeting solution and your success rate will be too low that firing a missile will be a waste of resources.
 
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