Submarine first, Carrier second

I was a little surprised by the offer too. Perhaps then the reasoning behind it would have been that the U.S knows that China does not have the kind of assets needed to protect a carrier. That is of course, a little untrue now, but it still makes some sense. If the PLAN pooled together the majority of it's modern warships, it could definitely escort at least one carrier. But then that would divert ships away from other operations.

In short, a carrier would be a big black hole sucking in rescources for the PLAN at present. But 10 years into the future, that could change.

Folks on this forum seem to have come to the conclusion that a CV is a not going to be useful for the short-run, but if you want a true blue water fleet 10 years from now, you need to build a CV now and start developing the doctrines and know-how. So it's an investment.

As for the Admiral's offer of assistance on a carrier. At the time, it wasn't clear what this related to. But now, after Kanwa reported China has begun construction (and therefore finalized the design), we see that the two must be related. Chances are, the USN is interested in seeing what kind of CV china will build.

Good point. I will admit that idea slipped my mind, and I don't know how. In theory, that would definitely be the way to go.

However, I hate to not have the last word , so I will argue on nonetheless for arguments sake. There are some kinks with the build-first-learn-second strategy. Most nations with carriers had the foundation solidly laid out before beginning operations, so China will be joining the small club that didn't. That might increase the chances of something going wrong.

Also, in peacetime, things should roll smoothly, but what if conflict breaks out shortly after the vessel is commisioned? You now have a big, juicy target that the generic enemy would eye.

dollarman said:

Good point. I will admit that idea slipped my mind, and I don't know how. In theory, that would definitely be the way to go.

However, I hate to not have the last word , so I will argue on nonetheless for arguments sake. There are some kinks with the build-first-learn-second strategy. Most nations with carriers had the foundation solidly laid out before beginning operations, so China will be joining the small club that didn't. That might increase the chances of something going wrong.

Also, in peacetime, things should roll smoothly, but what if conflict breaks out shortly after the vessel is commisioned? You now have a big, juicy target that the generic enemy would eye.

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Be all that as it may...if China wants to have a carrier capabilityy in the future...and every indication indicates that they do...from the significant resource and energy put into the Varyag, to the types of surface combatants they are building, to their own announced plans to build carriers...if the real goal and desire is to have a credible carrier force in the next ten years, then they have to start now.

Building a carrier or purchasing or building aircraft for it does not make their efforts or their force credible. Only years of training and operational development will do that. So, if they put one to sea (like the Varyag), say next year or the year after...then they may have something credible ten years from now. If they follow that up with their own indegenous carrier four years from now, then all the more likely that they will develop a credible carrier force. If they wait four to six years before they even start, then it will be more like 15-20 years before they have a credible capability.

The training, the development of a routine and industry around their carriers, inlcuding the aircraft and the incredible amount of training (and cost) for them as well as the ship operations in learning how to sail, handle, protect, maintain, and supply a carrier are all just going to take time.

Anyhow, just my two cents. I believe the PLAN is going to do it. And I believe within ten years there will be two, maybe three PLAN carriers plowing the waves with capable escorts and logistics. We shall see.

dollarman said:

Also, in peacetime, things should roll smoothly, but what if conflict breaks out shortly after the vessel is commisioned? You now have a big, juicy target that the generic enemy would eye.

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LOL, you need to worry a lot more than that. The only country that is capable of threatening China is US today, but if war breaks out between the two, the stake is very very high - the two way trade is worth 300 billion USD per year, not counting other things. There will be a big big mess that couples of CV groups are nothing compared with.

Anyway, military is just a small part of the grand game.

One of the major financial houses, can't remember which if it is Merill Lynch or another firm, has revised their estimate that the China on its current growth, will overtake the US in absolute value in GDP around 2027, now ahead from 2035. The idea of Chinese defense growth, as stated by HJT, is that China's defense spending will go hand in hand with its economic status.

That's only like 20 years from now. While China may be able to afford a carrier group, that may not be enough time to build a lot of such so its a good time to start practicing with one.

fishhead said:

LOL, you need to worry a lot more than that. The only country that is capable of threatening China is US today, but if war breaks out between the two, the stake is very very high - the two way trade is worth 300 billion USD per year, not counting other things. There will be a big big mess that couples of CV groups are nothing compared with.

Anyway, military is just a small part of the grand game.

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I did not mean to imply the U.S. Taiwan has strike aircraft, advanced destroyers, and anti-ship cruise missles aswell. Of course other issues will arise if war breaks out, but you certainly don't want to have your million dollar baby sunk from the outset, especially if it was just commissioned.

goldenpanda said:

Where is 30 JSF's going to land, when their "carrier" had to run underwater?

Has to be dumbest idea ever.

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I see I never answered this rather direct challenge.

FYI, the sub carriers depicted on this thread from my book are very large...close to 40,000 tons. They have large flat decks and emals cats. They also have hangar spaces.

The idea is to come to the surface and launch their aircraft. In fact, an entire task force comes with carrier, ampbibious assault and SSGNs, along with attack subs.

The carriers and amphibious assault are fitted with PARS and anti-air defenses, and of course, they have their air wing.

Anyhow, the vessels would be designed from the start with all of that in mind.

If you could pull it off, you would not know they were there until they came to the surface and luanched..and on strike missions...then they would be gone.