Speculation and facts on future Chinese vessels

Blitzo · Oct 6, 2012

Mysterre said:
Who says that? Some random fanboys? If the 093 had 688 levels of quietness the PLAN would have mass-produced that instead of rapidly moving on to the 095.

Sinodefence.com. Not a definitive source enough to override every other postulation of course, but certainly one that should be taken into account when estimating 093's potential acoustic level.

Well USN was fielding seawolf and virginia as 093 was starting production... The implication is obviously that 095 should be reaching seawolf and virginia levels of quietness, which would agree with the idea that the PLAN are finally mass producing an SSN beyond 4 boats (if that chart posted is semi credible at all).

Mysterre · Oct 6, 2012

Bltizo said:
The implication is obviously that 095 should be reaching seawolf and virginia levels of quietness, which would agree with the idea that the PLAN are finally mass producing an SSN beyond 4 boats (if that chart posted is semi credible at all).

Neither of us have any proof at all of course, but for me personally that is a massive stretch. 688 or possibly 688i would be a more reasonable level for the 095 IMO.

Blitzo · Oct 6, 2012

Mysterre said:
Neither of us have any proof at all of course, but for me personally that is a massive stretch. 688 or possibly 688i would be a more reasonable level for the 095 IMO.

Yep.

But it would be interesting to compare the industrial levels and technology available to the US when they started building 688, the soviet union with akula, and china's own when 093 was in a similar stage of development.

Personally I do not think it impossible for 093 to be near early 688 levels, considering the latter was built at the beginning of the 70s (with the respective industry and technology available to design at the time), and the first 093 was built from the late 90s, early 2000s.
I'd like to say any 095 noise estimates would also be contingent on 093's own, but considering how much of a leap China has experienced technologically during the last decade, even if 093 were not 688 level 095 could approach the seawolf region. My own personal anecdote of course.

I also wonder how much of the now "accepted" belief of noisy chinese SSNs arose from those ONI reports, popular culture and just the typical view directed towards chinese products in general. I see a slight parallel between SSN quietness and say, the development of stealth fighters and ship combat radar/management systems (ala AEGIS), where many western commentators believe (and I would argue, underestimate) the ability of chinese rival systems to the vaunted SSNs, aegis, F-22, etc. The fact that the PLAN keep SSN information so tightly locked under guard (we know barely anything about them, and only have a handful of photos compared to SSKs), may have led us to believe the western military community's stereotype in this regard.

paintgun · Oct 6, 2012

Bltizo said:
Yep.

But it would be interesting to compare the industrial levels and technology available to the US when they started building 688, the soviet union with akula, and china's own when 093 was in a similar stage of development.

Personally I do not think it impossible for 093 to be near early 688 levels, considering the latter was built at the beginning of the 70s (with the respective industry and technology available to design at the time), and the first 093 was built from the late 90s, early 2000s.
I'd like to say any 095 noise estimates would also be contingent on 093's own, but considering how much of a leap China has experienced technologically during the last decade, even if 093 were not 688 level 095 could approach the seawolf region. My own personal anecdote of course.

I also wonder how much of the now "accepted" belief of noisy chinese SSNs arose from those ONI reports, popular culture and just the typical view directed towards chinese products in general. I see a slight parallel between SSN quietness and say, the development of stealth fighters and ship combat radar/management systems (ala AEGIS), where many western commentators believe (and I would argue, underestimate) the ability of chinese rival systems to the vaunted SSNs, aegis, F-22, etc. The fact that the PLAN keep SSN information so tightly locked under guard (we know barely anything about them, and only have a handful of photos compared to SSKs), may have led us to believe the western military community's stereotype in this regard.

it's logical to arrive at that assumption, considering China's growth in other field

but i can't put away my reservations about China's SSN and SSBN until :

1. they make a longer serial production run, at least mimicking their confidence with the conventional submarines
2. Chinese SSN/SSBN start making strategic patrols and long range exercises, operate at the level approximately of USN/Soviet level

how feasible that is considering the death traps for submarines surrounding the first island chain remains a question itself

Maybe the proponents of Chinese aircraft carriers school of thought, managed to offer one thing the Submarine school can not, an operation capability beyond China's near territorial waters

Blitzo · Oct 6, 2012

paintgun said:
it's logical to arrive at that assumption, considering China's growth in other field

but i can't put away my reservations about China's SSN and SSBN until :

1. they make a longer serial production run, at least mimicking their confidence with the conventional submarines

The problem is that they may not produce a longer serial run unless the top brass perceive the product as competitive to what the rest of the world is fielding. Who knows.

2. Chinese SSN/SSBN start making strategic patrols and long range exercises, operate at the level approximately of USN/Soviet level

I fear we may never have a reliable answer to that question unfortunately.

how feasible that is considering the death traps for submarines surrounding the first island chain remains a question itself

Maybe the proponents of Chinese aircraft carriers school of thought, managed to offer one thing the Submarine school can not, an operation capability beyond China's near territorial waters

Carriers and submarines offer very different capabilities.

paintgun · Oct 6, 2012

Bltizo said:
I fear we may never have a reliable answer to that question unfortunately.

yes we will, just wait for coverage if it does happen

Bltizo said:
Carriers and submarines offer very different capabilities.

both act as assets and deterrents against China's perceived enemies

it used to be those two schools competing for fund and support, the rise of Liaoning and the high profile carrier program is very pronounced, and the future of carriers program look very secure

also with money not a problem, i hope we will be pleasantly surprised if 095 make it to the surface

the very low key SSN/SSBN development is perhaps part of China's policy with US

Blitzo · Oct 6, 2012

paintgun said:
yes we will, just wait for coverage if it does happen

Considering how well documented russian and USN SSN patrols are by either side I sincerely doubt we will get reputable accounts of similar deployments on part of the PLAN

both act as assets and deterrents against China's perceived enemies

You could say that about any weapons system.

it used to be those two schools competing for fund and support, the rise of Liaoning and the high profile carrier program is very pronounced, and the future of carriers program look very secure

also with money not a problem, i hope we will be pleasantly surprised if 095 make it to the surface

I do not think the SSN faction in the PLAN are going to be significantly marginalized even with a "focus" on CVBGs, as both do complement each other to an extent. CVBGs require good SSN escorts in the open sea anyhow.

As to 095, current consensus (via huitong, various posters with reputable histories) is that the first hull has already entered some form of production or even completion at bohai which is in line with the estimated ~2010 prediction of 095's launch from years past. It'll probably be something like three years or so until we get a decent picture of it, if 093's launch and publicity history is anything to go by. PLAN seem very intent on keeping SSN/SSBN production and development a secret. Clearly they see these boats as significant, strategic weapons.

the very low key SSN/SSBN development is perhaps part of China's policy with US

More to do with China's future interests I say. Carriers will have a big role to play in blue water power projection to secure SLOCs during peacetime which SSNs simply cannot do.

paintgun · Oct 6, 2012

Bltizo said:
Considering how well documented russian and USN SSN patrols are by either side I sincerely doubt we will get reputable accounts of similar deployments on part of the PLAN

in any case of such revelation, it will be a very important statement of capability from the PLA(N)
we have examples like JL-1/2 coverage, to show China has credible missiles in its SSBN

Bltizo said:
You could say that about any weapons system.

equally strategic in this case, and historically closely related in PLA

Bltizo said:
I do not think the SSN faction in the PLAN are going to be significantly marginalized even with a "focus" on CVBGs, as both do complement each other to an extent. CVBGs require good SSN escorts in the open sea anyhow.

As to 095, current consensus (via huitong, various posters with reputable histories) is that the first hull has already entered some form of production or even completion at bohai which is in line with the estimated ~2010 prediction of 095's launch from years past. It'll probably be something like three years or so until we get a decent picture of it, if 093's launch and publicity history is anything to go by. PLAN seem very intent on keeping SSN/SSBN production and development a secret. Clearly they see these boats as significant, strategic weapons.

i wouldn't say marginalized as well, but we might see a very different PLA if they decided not go to CV path and have a different doctrine instead

i agree that the next CBG with nuclear CV will require a SSN escort, and will be a perfect time for exposure

Blitzo · Oct 6, 2012

paintgun said:
in any case of such revelation, it will be a very important statement of capability from the PLA(N)
we have examples like JL-1/2 coverage, to show China has credible missiles in its SSBN

Just as the US has documentaries on ohio class SSBN and trident missiles, it doesn't mean they show the frequency, distribution or geography of patrols...

i wouldn't say marginalized as well, but we might see a very different PLA if they decided not go to CV path and have a different doctrine instead

That is definitely true.

I imagine if the PLAN decided to go with an SSN/SSBN heavy navy it would be very effective against, but also limited to conflicts against major powers like the US, and would lead to significant lack in (peactime, low intensity conflict) power projection which CVBGs offer.

Such a submarine heavy doctrine would likely have resulted in a navy not dissimilar to the late soviet navy.

Mysterre · Oct 6, 2012

Bltizo said:
The problem is that they may not produce a longer serial run unless the top brass perceive the product as competitive to what the rest of the world is

This is exactly the reason I think the 093 was not anywhere near world standards and was thus followed in short order by the 095. If the 095 is at the level of the 688i or better, I have little doubt the PLAN will be willing to mass-produce this design, as the 688i represents only a half generation behind state of the art. Otherwise you will see the same thing again, with the 095 eventually replaced by a newer design after only a few units are produced.

Speculation and facts on future Chinese vessels

Blitzo

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Mysterre

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Blitzo

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paintgun

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Blitzo

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paintgun

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Blitzo

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paintgun

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Blitzo

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Mysterre

Banned Idiot