South China Sea Strategies for other nations (Not China)

Blackstone

Brigadier
???

US is trying to 'change regime' in Vietnam?
US has a stated "democracy promotion" policy everywhere around the world. It's a not so subtle guise for regime change of authoritarian states. Regime change of non-approved authoritarian states is immediate, while the approved authoritarian states are granted temporary reprieve, until America no longer needs them. The timing and effort for change are situational and dependent on strategic needs. Discrepancies and hypocrisies are countered by great power privileges.

The reason for regime change is evidence show democracies, especially liberal democracies, tend not to wage kinetic war on each other. Ergo, regime change is policy for both Republican and Democrat administrations.
 
according to AirForceTimes (dated October 26, 2016) Philippine president wants U.S. troops out of his country
Philippine President Rodrigo Duterte, during a visit to Japan, told Japanese and Philippine business leaders Wednesday that he wants foreign troops -- read U.S. troops -- out of his country, possibly within two years.

"I want them out," he said, adding that he might end base-hosting agreements with the United States that were signed earlier this year.

It is the latest in a string of confusing, contradictory and controversial statements from the popular socialist leader, who just last week visited China in an attempt to strengthen ties between the two countries.

"I want to be friends to China," he told an audience of businesspeople in Tokyo Wednesday. "I do not need the arms. I do not want missiles established in my country. I do not need to have the airports ... host the bombers."

Since Duterte took office in June, Manila's relationship with Washington has quickly become strained, and his overtures to China, while criticizing U.S. foreign policy, have caused consternation in both the U.S. and Japan. Duterte has repeatedly spoken of distancing his country from the U.S., often in crude terms.

The U.S., meanwhile, has opted to take a "wait and see" approach, giving Philippine leaders the opportunity to soften the rhetoric and maintain a close relationship.

"We are aware of the reports of the remarks regarding the joint exercises and will be seeking clarification through direct dialogue," said Navy Cmdr. Gary Ross, a Pentagon spokesman, on Wednesday. "We will continue to consult, as we always have, with our Filipino partners to appropriately tailor our assistance. We will continue to honor our alliance commitments and treaty obligations and expect the Philippines to do the same."

In September, Duterte announced that the annual Amphibious Landing Exercise between Philippine and U.S. troops, held in early October, would be the last. The bilateral exercise aims to boost amphibious capabilities with humanitarian and civic assistance efforts to strengthen interoperability and working relationships.

More than 1,400 U.S. service members, most with the 3rd Marine Expeditionary Brigade out of Okinawa, Japan, and 500 Philippine armed forces members took part, although the exercise ended a day early for reasons not entirely made clear.

Duterte has also said that Army special operations troops operating on the southern Philippines island of Mindanao will have to leave. An undisclosed number of U.S. soldiers, estimated to be about 50 to 100, have been assisting Philippine troops counter Abu Sayyaf militants there. The continuation of other ongoing relationships, such as a Pacific Air Forces rotational contingent of aircraft training with Philippine forces has also been called into question.

It is less clear what Duterte's comments might mean for his country's joint operations with the U.S. Navy, but Duterte has said he would like to lessen tensions with China, which have been high since the Chinese seized the Scarborough Shoal, traditional Philippine fishing grounds about 123 miles west of Subic Bay, after a two-month standoff in 2012.

The Philippines challenged China's actions in court at The Hague and won, but China has refused to acknowledge the court's jurisdiction.

In May 2014, the U.S. and the Philippines negotiated a new 10-year security deal to counter China's rising military assertiveness in the region. It stipulated that up to five Philippine military bases would be made available to U.S. aircraft, ships, equipment and troops, and also covered storage of equipment for maritime security and humanitarian assistance.

The details of that agreement, signed March 18 under Duterte's predecessor, Benigno Aquino III, cleared the way for a permanent American military presence across the five bases to support rotational deployments near the contested South China Sea.

Those bases include:
  • Antonio Bautista Air Base. On the island province of Palawan, the air base is strategically situated not far from the contested Spratly Islands in the South China Sea.
  • Basa Air Base. About 40 miles northwest of the Philippines' capital, Manila, the base was constructed by the U.S. Army Air Corps before World War II.
  • Fort Magsaysay. The largest military installation in the Philippines, on the northern Island of Luzon, is one of the primary training areas of the Philippine Army.
  • Lumbia Air Base. Located on the southern island of Mindanao, the air base is connected to a civilian airport.
  • Mactan-Benito Ebuen Air Base. On Mactan Island, off the coast of Cebu in the central Philippines, the air base was originally built by the U.S. Air Force before the American pullout in the early 1990s.
Whether U.S. troops will be able to use those bases much longer is now an open question.
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Air Force Brat

Brigadier
Super Moderator
according to AirForceTimes (dated October 26, 2016) Philippine president wants U.S. troops out of his country

source:
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Nice, he likes attention, he doesn't like Obama, and he's going to betray his Allies, (he and Obama are too much alike to get along), he's going to sell out to China in order to feather his own nest???

Sad to see the world in the hands of such "petty little men", lots of "big ego's", if this crowd doesn't bring on some kind of "global conflict" it will be a miracle, throw HRC into that mix??? "LORD HELP US"!

Sadly not a "Statesmen" among the bunch,,,,,, just amazing! and Duterte obviously is wanting to avoid conflict with China at all costs, so likely a mix of fear and a hope of profit?
 

Janiz

Senior Member
Nice, he likes attention, he doesn't like Obama, and he's going to betray his Allies, (he and Obama are too much alike to get along), he's going to sell out to China in order to feather his own nest???
Nope, nothing between him and other US allies in the region will change. So far there's only talk, talk, talk and nothing else. US is a big player in the region as well so he won't abandon it in a wink of an eye - I think he's done with current administration and he'll wait for time after election of the new US president will be over. Xi doesn't want to move anywhere so there's steady ground for talks (not about selling islands in the SCS! he only said that his country can't defend them by itself and that's, as we all know, true). He probably wants to show that his country isn't some foreign power's playground and that he's the one who allows them to talk with him and negotiate rather than doing what he's been told by them. Though 'Japan is more than brother' as he said while visiting Tokyo recently.

So sit down, and wait for the end of US presidential elections for now.
 

advill

Junior Member
"Do you have the patience to wait till the mud settles & the water is clear? Can you remain unmoving till the right action arises by itself" old saying/advice by the Chinese sage Chuang Tzu. This is a wise saying when dealing with Prez Duarte. I am sure China & Japan know this full well; but not surprising, that the US is shocked, as it is not used understanding such "colourful" behaviours. Think out of the box man!
 

Air Force Brat

Brigadier
Super Moderator
"Do you have the patience to wait till the mud settles & the water is clear? Can you remain unmoving till the right action arises by itself" old saying/advice by the Chinese sage Chuang Tzu. This is a wise saying when dealing with Prez Duarte. I am sure China & Japan know this full well; but not surprising, that the US is shocked, as it is not used understanding such "colourful" behaviours. Think out of the box man!

Love your Chinese proverb, and you are right, we in the West are impatient, and arrogant,,,,but no more arrogant than the Asian who feels superior. That's the trouble, too many arrogant people wanting to "bully" others in to playing "their" game, you kinda hope people would learn from their mistakes?

America tried to remain neutral, and stay out of WWII, that really didn't work out too well, and lots of innocent people lost their lives, their freedoms, and their homes, because of our reticence.

So now we've gone to far the other way I suppose and try to micro-manage, only for the last 8 years we've had a President and two Secretaries of State, who couldn't find their butts with both hands, don't tell me not to be nervous,,,,HRC is a mean woman, and she "knows it all, the arrogance of conducting Top-Secret State business at home, is only surpassed by the abject "stoopidity" of the same??? wouldn't you agree???
 
Oct 24, 2016
again US destroyer sails near disputed Paracel Islands

the rest of the article available from Jane's (not to me though hehe):
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now
US Navy destroyer patrols South China Sea waters
U.S. Navy’s Arleigh Burke-class guided missile destroyer USS John S. McCain patrolled South China Sea waters on October 30.

All communication with foreign navies during the maneuver were professional, the U.S. Navy said.

The patrol has been an opportunity for junior sailors to refine maritime skills through professional encounters at sea, whether by bridge-to-bridge conversations or whistle signals sounded in accordance with the Maritime Rules of the Road.

“Our communications between foreign navies during this patrol have been nothing but professional,” said Cmdr. Alfredo J. Sanchez, commanding officer of John S. McCain. “I always look forward to professional dialogue between mariners at sea, and what these interactions can teach junior officers and Sailors about operating skillfully underway. Good communication with other vessels operating nearby is key to conducting everyday operations.”

Initially on patrol with Carrier Strike Group (CSG) 5, John S. McCain’s mission transitioned from supporting international exercises to independent, routine patrols.

John S. McCain is one of eight guided-missile destroyers assigned to Destroyer Squadron (DESRON) 15 forward-deployed to Yokosuka, Japan, supporting security and stability in the Indo-Asia-Pacific region.
source (dated November 3, 2016):
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(the first time I've heard of
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but heard of Senator McCain before :)
 

advill

Junior Member
Serious Issues including US interests in the South China Sea could be different with a new US President elected next week. Whatever happens in the US is the prerogative of their leaders and people. "They make the bed they lie on". Countries in our region should aim at keeping our waters peaceful. As commonly intoned: "It's the Economy stupid!", especially during present period of slow growth. Predictions since the 1990s by well known writers and academics from both the East & West stated that the 21st Century will be an "Asian Century", with economic progress and prosperity, and benefits spreading globally - as in an inter-connected world. Will this be a reality? Will there be real Peace and no problems in the South China Sea, to spur progress? We may know soon enough.
 

Blackstone

Brigadier
A VOA article on some ASEAN countries hedging on US. Washington would be wise to up its game.

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In the short space of just a few weeks, China appears to have won some major diplomatic victories in Southeast Asia, with the dramatic public swing away from the U.S. by the Philippines and a high-profile visit by Malaysia Prime Minister Najib Razak's to Beijing.

But while some see the shifts as a sign that countries in the region are pivoting away from Washington and toward Beijing, others see a new and emerging balance of power as smaller countries in the region hedge their bets.

During a visit to Beijing last month, Philippine President Rodrigo Duterte announced his country's "separation" from the United States. That rift with Washington continues to deepen.

So much so, that some believe the long-standing alliance between the two countries has been left hanging in the balance.

And the Philippines is not alone.

This week, visiting Najib embraced Beijing as well, signing investment agreements totaling more than $34 billion, and Kuala Lumpur agreed to purchase four naval vessels from China.

The prime minister also talked up Beijing's role in the region and world. In an op-ed piece published Wednesday in the state-run China Daily, Najib said larger countries should treat smaller countries fairly.

"And that includes former colonial powers. It is not for them to lecture countries they once exploited on how to conduct their own internal affairs today," he wrote in the article.

The about face by Manila and warm outreach from Malaysia comes just months after Beijing's expansion in the South China Sea was rebuked by an international court.

Shifting tides

Analysts say that more than being a victory or loss for either Beijing or Washington, shifting tides of allegiance are part of a new emerging balance of power in Asia, driven by domestic politics and the diverse interests of countries in the region.
FILE - From left, Vietnamese President Tran Dai Quang, Chinese Premier Li Keqiang, Laos Prime Minister Thongloun Sisoulith, Philippines President Rodrigo Duterte, and Brunei's Sultan Hassanal Bolkiah cut a cake during the ASEAN-China Summit in Vientiane, Laos, Sept. 7, 2016.

Asia has not seen someone as outspoken as Duterte since Malaysia's Prime Minister Mahathir Mohammed was in office, says Mark Thompson, director of the City University of Hong Kong's Southeast Asia Research Center.

From a Philippine perspective, he adds, it is domestic politics and nationalism driving things.

"Duterte wants to be left alone, and he feels that close ties with the West hinders him and he thinks one of the ways he can gain leverage is by making these kinds of noises," he said. "Now the extent to which Philippine foreign policy changes is still open."

Beijing-based analyst Francesco Sisci says the new reality is every country in the region is playing on every side.

"The Chinese are not naïve enough to believe that actually Duterte is really turning away from the Americans," he said. "I think he's only biding his time to see who will become the next American president."

Cozying up with Beijing has given the Philippines more power at the negotiating table with Washington, Sisci says, and more leeway to strengthen ties with other countries.

Manila is starting to see some benefits of its approach, as Beijing has allowed Filipino fisherman to return to the contested Scarborough Shoal in the South China Sea.

But keeping the focus on just the United States and China is perhaps too narrow-minded, he adds.

During the next two decades, influences in the region will change dramatically. India's importance will rise, Vietnam's economic ambitions will continue to expand, and Indonesia's population is expected to reach half a billion.

"The picture is extremely complicated and is evolving very fast," Sisci said.

And because of that, shifts are likely to come and go.

Opportunistic, pragmatic

For example, when Myanmar wanted Western investment, it took steps to liberalize. But now, some see it leaning back toward China or playing both the West and Beijing more even-handedly.

Thailand's military-led government, which has seen ties with Washington weaken, has grown closer to Beijing.

"China has been vital for the military junta there in terms of its economic situation because tourism and investment from China has been absolutely crucial,” Thompson noted. “Of course, the difference being Thailand does not have the same stake in the South China Sea issue."

Malaysia has long been a target of Chinese investment, which has helped Najib in the past. The added support from Beijing comes at a crucial time for the Malaysian leader as civil lawsuits by the U.S. Justice Department have implicated him in a money-laundering scandal. Najib has denied wrongdoing.

Some have portrayed Malaysia's agreement to purchase four littoral mission ships from China as a significant shift, but other analysts say it is more an issue of cost.

"It's cheaper to buy Chinese LMS ships, which cost about $100 million a pop, instead of buying them for $400 million each from the French, for example," said William Choong, of the International Institute for Strategic Studies in Singapore. "It's pragmatic, and it's also opportunistic."
 
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