It's like a game of chess (Chinese or Western) played on Southeast Asian chessboard. Round1 - China has recently won. We will wait a few more outcomes. Several "punters" are betting China will win Round 2, but pragmatic to wait for subsequent rounds of "chess games". Several factors will be considered to win: economics, trade and investments, security & importantly friendly & magnanimous Smart Super-Power or a Fast Rising Super Power Leader. Just an "Owlish opinion".
South China Sea Strategies for other nations (Not China)
- Thread starter PanAsian
- Start date
Multipolarity at the major powers level will breed multipolarity at the smaller powers levels. This is ultimately be a good thing for democratic behavior among countries.
Blackstone
Brigadier
While I am talking about the same thing as him we are talking about two sides of the same coin. He is coming from the perspective of decrease of control and domination among countries. I am coming from the perspective of increase of freedom and democracy among countries.
SamuraiBlue
Captain
This is one of the analogies that results in coming out with the wrong conclusions.
The Americans don't play chess in real politiks they play poker in which they may bluff even when they have a bad hand, worse yet they will bet high stakes to make the opponent fold.
PRC on the other hand is playing a game of Go thinking the more area they have the more influence they will obtain in the area.
Basically neither are play the same game following different set of rules.
Blackstone
Brigadier
Instead of adventuring in the South China Sea thousands of miles away, Australia should keep a closer eye on events just off their immediate coast. Indonesia turning more Islamist isn't good for anyone, especially Australia.
Consider a future scenario where a much stronger Indonesia turns more Islamist and sets its sights on vast land, but with a small population to its south. Then what? Who will come to Australia's rescue if it dials 9-1-1 for national survival? New Zealand? Too small and powerless. Japan? HA! Europe? No chance. Malaysia? It's Muslim too, so forget it. Russia? Not likely, since it has its own Islamist problems; same with China. US...? Maybe yes, but probably no, because it might still be stuck in the Middle East quagmire of its own making, while at the same time straining to encircle China. Ergo, US may not have the resource or the political will to rescue Australia.
Australia's best course of action is to help itself. But, a country of 24 million against another country of 260 million about 100 miles off its shores? Good luck with that!
Consider a future scenario where a much stronger Indonesia turns more Islamist and sets its sights on vast land, but with a small population to its south. Then what? Who will come to Australia's rescue if it dials 9-1-1 for national survival? New Zealand? Too small and powerless. Japan? HA! Europe? No chance. Malaysia? It's Muslim too, so forget it. Russia? Not likely, since it has its own Islamist problems; same with China. US...? Maybe yes, but probably no, because it might still be stuck in the Middle East quagmire of its own making, while at the same time straining to encircle China. Ergo, US may not have the resource or the political will to rescue Australia.
Australia's best course of action is to help itself. But, a country of 24 million against another country of 260 million about 100 miles off its shores? Good luck with that!
JAKARTA, Indonesia—The biggest street protest in years shook this sprawling capital on Friday, in a stark display of the more conservative, in the world’s largest Muslim country.
Police estimated that 100,000 people turned out for a rally called by hard-line Muslim groups against the capital’s Christian governor, whom they accuse of having committed blasphemy.
The protest was peaceful during the day but scuffles broke out after nightfall. Some protesters threw plastic bottles and rocks at police and struck their riot shields with sticks. Police fired tear gas and water cannon to disperse them. A local news portal said that two police trucks were set on fire near the presidential palace.
Turnout was lower than some organizers had predicted, after the nation’s largest Muslim organizations this week discouraged their members from attending.
President Joko Widodo had met with other political leaders amid calls for calm, but critics say he has been too slow since taking office in 2014 to respond to deepening tensions for fear of being labeled anti-Muslim.
In , Mr. Widodo, who is himself a Muslim, said religious and political leaders had a responsibility to “cool temperatures down,” and he vowed to protect minorities. “My government won’t tolerate any discrimination,” “We are one of the most tolerant countries in the world,’’ Mr. Widodo told The Wall Street Journal.
The Jakarta governor’s bid to win re-election in February is building into a test.
“Religiosity is rising, especially among the middle class,” said Yon Machmudi, an Islamic politics expert at the University of Indonesia. “A sense of identification is increasing.’’
ENLARGE
Indonesian Muslim demonstrators, holding banners that read ‘put Ahok in jail’ march towards the presidential palace in Jakarta Friday during a protest against Jakarta governor Basuki Tjahaja Purnama, also known as Ahok, over an alleged blasphemy. Photo: Agence France-Presse/Getty Images
Protesters were taking aim at Basuki Tjahaja Purnama, known as Ahok, who is the most prominent politician among the country’s often-persecuted ethnic Chinese minority—and one of the country’s few Christian lawmakers. He was elected deputy governor in 2012 and elevated to the top job in 2014 after his boss, Mr. Widodo, was elected president.
Some hard-liners had tried to block his ascentthen, saying Muslims shouldn’t be governed by a “kafir,” or nonbeliever.
The blunt-spoken Mr. Purnama, 50 years old, also has irritated many with a brash, get-things-done manner that conflicts with Javanese traditions of polite compromise.
Mr. Purnama, now running for re-election with high approval ratings, angered the groups again by citing a verse of the Quran in a public address in late September. He has apologized and said he would cooperate with a police investigation, but has since been the target of protests.
Vice President Jusuf Kalla met a group of protest leaders and said afterward that police would pursue a blasphemy case against Mr. Purnama. Local media reported that Mr. Purnama said he would meet with investigators Monday. The maximum penalty for blasphemy is five years’ imprisonment.
Scattered outbreaks of violence were reported as small groups dispersed into neighborhoods, including in North Jakarta, where they looted a minimart. About a hundred police officers guarded the complex where Mr. Purnama resides.
Shortly after midnight, Mr. Widodo appeared on television, saying that legal action concerning Mr. Purnama would be swift and transparent, and asked protesters to return home. He also said he deplored the violence that took place after the rally and that “political actors” had taken advantage of the situation. He didn’t elaborate.
Mr. Widodo on Saturday that was to begin Sunday, according to Australian Prime Minister Malcolm Turnbull’s office. Mr. Turnbull said in a statement that Mr. Widodo called him to postpone the visit and that the security situation in Jakarta required the president’s personal attention.
Nearly 90% of Indonesia’s 250 million people are Muslim. The Southeast Asian nation—some 18,000 islands straddling the Pacific and Indian oceans—has a long tradition of moderate Islam in a culture influenced earlier by Hinduism and Buddhism.
But the tenor has changed in recent years. Head scarves for women, once rare, are now widely worn and Islamic schools are expanding.
An effort to fizzled in 2013 but has returned this year, with proponents asking the Supreme Court for a constitutional prohibition.
Religious early this year, and the government threatened to block websites it says promote lesbian, gay, bisexual and transgender lifestyles. ran into trouble with Indonesia’s state-owned telecom provider in part because of complaints over some content.
A movement to ban alcohol is gaining steam and sales have been banned from convenience stores. Travel to Mecca for the minor pilgrimage of umrah, once a relatively uncommon undertaking for middle-class Indonesians, is newly popular.
Security experts say the rising conservatism , pointing to some religious hard-liners who have rebranded themselves as cells of Islamic State.
In January, Indonesia suffered its , with militants receiving funding from the terrorist group via a Syria-based Indonesian who once studied with a hard-line group in central Java. There have been , including one last month where an Islamic State sympathizer stabbed three police officers.
“What we’ve seen in the last 18 months to two years is increasing crossover from organizations that started out nonviolent-but-hard-line to organizations which are now committed to using violence,” said Sidney Jones, director of the Jakarta-based Institute for Policy Analysis of Conflict.
Still, Islamic parties have done poorly in elections since the downfall of longtime dictator Suharto in 1998. Indonesia has been one of the most stable democracies in the region after overcoming a wave of terrorism and sectarianism in the early 2000s.
Many of those at Friday’s protest had ridden for hours on trains and buses from other parts of Java island. They gathered at the Istiqlal mosque, the country’s largest, before marching toward the presidential palace.
A 27-year-old from Pemalang in central Java said that, while Mr. Purnama isn’t his governor, he was seeking justice for Islam. Asked about comments from extremists about killing Mr. Purnama, he said: “It is an expression of how upset we are.”
Security forces took up positions behind barbed wire around nearby government offices. Authorities said around 20,000 police and military personnel were on duty. There were no immediate reports of violence.
Streets in the famously congested city of 10 million people were relatively devoid of traffic as many workers stayed home. Many shops and offices closed.
Blackstone
Brigadier
US asserts rights under international law for FON operation in the SCS. While I agree with this specific US operation, the followup question is what next? Current standoff favors Beijing, because it is consolidating its hold on the SCS, while US only take symbolic actions, without participation from its regional allies. A different approach is needed.
broadsword
Brigadier
Bad Dute. What have you done?
SamuraiBlue
Captain
Basically Julian Ku the writer of this opinion piece is mistaking the basis of UNCLOS in which the US military is basing their operation.
Under UNCLOS, those artificial islands that PRC created and are now occupying does not obtain EEZ so US Military is not exercising innocent passage as this writer presumed, they are exercising as the operation states FREEDOM OF NAVIGATION in international waters.
Blackstone
Brigadier
We agree PRC's artificial islands don't get EEZ, but the USS Decatur might have made other actions to warrant non-innocent passage.