South China Sea Strategies for other nations (Not China)

solarz

Brigadier
Hefty words.

I guess we will see at the next election...if he follows through with this...what the Filipino people think of it.

Duterte's announcement did not come out of nowhere. In fact, he campaigned on this and won in a landslide. So I would imagine a lot of Filipino people support this policy.
 

Jeff Head

General
Registered Member
Duterte's announcement did not come out of nowhere. In fact, he campaigned on this and won in a landslide. So I would imagine a lot of Filipino people support this policy.
I thought his big push was to seriously and harshly go after the duggies.

I had not heard about this anti-American streak until very recently...and believe it is taking most by surprise.

But the anti-drug campaign was clear. My understanding was that he is lashing out against the UN and the US for criticizing some of the methods for taking down the cartels in the Philippines.

Do not get me wrong...I think in places like the Philippines and Mexico that you have to wage an almost all out war, targeting the drug cartels whole support structure...or you may lose your country. We see that happening in Mexico.

Anyhow...the next election will tell us one way or the other. about alienating and pushing the US away.
 
according to NavalToday US Navy ships meet up in South China Sea for interoperability drills
U.S. Navy’s Bonhomme Richard Expeditionary Strike Group joined two guided-missile destroyers from the Pacific Surface Action Group (PAC SAG) for a series of interoperability drills in international waters of the South China Sea on October 3 and 4.

The BHR ESG employed the capabilities of USS Spruance (DDG 111) and USS Decatur (DDG 73) to practice defense in depth of the amphibious ships, including anti-submarine warfare and air defense scenarios and live-fire events with embarked helicopters from Helicopter Maritime Strike Squadron (HSM) 49 and the 31st Marine Expeditionary Unit.

“As I said in April when the PAC SAG deployed, this type of training with the BHR ESG will pave the way for the inaugural deployment of an ESG embarked with joint strike fighters (F-35B Lightning II) and escorted by a SAG like this one, which I call an up-gunned ESG,” said Adm. Scott H. Swift, commander, U.S. Pacific Fleet. “Being able to concentrate and disperse all of that capability based on the situation will provide commanders with tremendous operational flexibility.”

The expeditionary group consists of amphibious ships USS Bonhomme Richard, amphibious transport dock USS Green Bay and amphibious dock landing ship USS Germantown.

The PAC SAG deployed in April as part of a three-ship group consisting of Spruance, Decatur and Momsen (DDG 92) and embarked helicopter detachments of HSM 49 to conduct maritime security operations in the Indo-Asia-Pacific region.

While Spruance and Decatur conduct routine patrols in the Western Pacific, Momsen is conducting an Oceania Maritime Security Initiate (OMSI) mission.

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Yvrch

Junior Member
Registered Member
He has not avoided it.

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It's not the next election Duterte needs to worry about, it's a US-backed military coup. I hope he's watching his back.

There is starting to be a pattern of divergence between Duterte's comments on the SCS, US, and China and comments by the Philippines military, at least as reported in English language media. Hard to tell for now whether it's just a politician's words not matching his actions, or if there is a split within the Philippines government, or between the civilian government vs the military as to their actual policies going forward.
 

Zool

Junior Member
There may need to be an adjustment in media narrative if protecting PH from an unreasonable China is no longer a valid reason for increased US deployments into the SCS.

Earlier in the week Reuters reports highlighted the disconnect between Duterte and senior PH officials, but public statements over the last 48hrs show the administration rallying behind the President. Public polling this week also shows strong support for Duterte policies.

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Philippines' Duterte tells rights groups to 'go to hell'
01:03

Yasay's tone contrasted sharply with that of Defence Secretary Delfin Lorenzana, who on Wednesday said Duterte may have been misinformed when he said U.S.-Philippine military exercises were of no benefit to his country.

The Philippines won an arbitration ruling in July by a tribunal in The Hague, which declared invalid China's expansive claims in the South China Sea. Manila's relations with Beijing have been strained over the case.

Since independence from the United States 70 years ago, it had never allowed the "little brown brothers" of the Philippines to become truly free, Yasay said.

The Philippines would seek to engage with China, Yasay said, and would be mindful of the lessons it had learned from being too close to Washington.

"Our past mistakes in fostering and strengthening our friendship with our white big brother will be instructive for this purpose," he said.
 

Zool

Junior Member
My read is that PH is coming to a realisation that US interests in maintaining a level of dispute in the SCS are not necessarily to it's own interests. A key word in quoted comments in this article:
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Philippine Defense Minister on U.S. ties: "Maybe we should re-assess"
01:37

Asked how changes in the security relationship could impact a strategic U.S. "rebalance" to Asia, he said: "They are not lacking of any place to park their ships if they are no longer allowed to park their ships here."

He said there may be some issues of compatibility with defense procurements from Russia and China, which were willing to sell to the Philippines.

A Philippine dispute with China over sovereignty in the South China Sea would not impede defense procurements, he said, adding there had been no discussion of the two countries working together militarily.

"All we are thinking now is buying equipment," he said. "No talks yet about military alliance. Just simple transaction of buying equipment."

Lorenzana's show of accord with Duterte's anti-U.S. stand follows a similar tough line from Foreign Affairs Secretary Perfecto Yasay who said this week Duterte wanted to liberate the country from a "shackling dependency" on the United States.

Yasay said the president was "compelled to realign" Philippine foreign policy and not submit to U.S. demands and interests.
 

Lethe

Captain
Interesting to see such sentiments coming from someone other than Duterte personally. Still, it's a difficult thing to realign a nation's foreign policy: it involves going up entrenched interest groups within society, including the military. Getting foreign militaries on-side is one of the major reasons the US is so deeply involved with so many foreign militaries (including my own) in the first place. It's a kind of Borg-like assimilation process.

In Australia, in the wake of Vietnam we had a Prime Minister who went to some effort to roll back our alliance with the United States. He was removed from office under very unusual and controversial circumstances. You can read as much or as little into that as you want. His successor, Malcolm Fraser, kept an altogether lower profile, though he did publish a
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warning of the dangers of our relationship with the US shortly before his death.

Duterte is hardly my kind of guy, yet I can't help but admire his willingness to stand up for (what he perceives to be) the national interest, regardless of whom it discomfits. His willingness to break from the status quo, his intolerance of quasi-colonial paternalism, etc. But yeah, tread carefully guy.

There may need to be an adjustment in media narrative if protecting PH from an unreasonable China is no longer a valid reason for increased US deployments into the SCS.

That's easy. Worst-case scenario it becomes defending the Asia-Pacific from the Sino-Filipino Axis of Evil. ;)
 
according to BreakingDefense.com
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continues to claim sovereign control of the
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and
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, but the Beijing is taking no actions to enforce its claims, a senior State Department official says.

“The point to stress is this: no one is stopping a US Navy warship. The Chinese are not stopping US Navy warships,”
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, assistant secretary of State for East Asian and Pacific affairs, told me during a Defense Writers Group breakfast.
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and other lawmakers have pressed hard for the Obama Administration to execute more visible Freedom of Navigation Operations (FONOPs) in the region to demonstrate American resolve and ensure the sea lanes are free for all nations to use.

Russel made the intriguing point that the Seventh Fleet and its Pentagon leaders do not necessarily “announce every FONOPs, so some things are visible; some things are only visible to people with radar and tracking.”

“The Chinese are not being let off the hook,” Russel says, adding that the PRC’s “claims have lost any credibility” with nations in the region. Of course, China has no legal leg to stand on since the UN tribunal ruled incontrovertibly this summer that
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to sovereignty over the South China Sea.

In other intriguing points, Russel told us he has seen no “material change” in the US-
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relationship, while wryly noting “there’s a lot of noise, a lot of stray voltage” coming from Manila. New President Rodrigo Duterte, of course, has cast aspersions upon the character and parentage of President Barak Obama, insulted the US Ambassador to Manila and seemed to indicate his country would make major changes to its relations with the United States by stopping joint military exercises and expelling US Special Operations troops from the country.

“We’ve been through a lot worse in our 70-year history,” Russel says.

China is eagerly pursuing Duterte, hoping to pry the Philippines away from its treaty relationship with the United States. Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesman Geng Shuang has confirmed Duterte would meet President Xi Jinping and Premier Li Keqiang on an Oct. 18-21 trip to Beijing, where they will all get to enjoy a “deep exchange of views” on regional and bilateral issues. That may not be a bad thing, according to the senior State Department diplomat.

As Duterte continues to speak big, the question that needs answering will be, is he actually doing anything to harm or fundamentally change his country’s relationship with the United States. As Russel put it: “There’s a difference between talking about these things and doing them.”
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