Equation
Lieutenant General
Don't the PLA have satellites for that? Plus I'm sure the MSS have it's people already inside the Myanmar government trying to get a feel for their actions.
Sino-Myanmar Border Conflicts
- Thread starter Insignius
- Start date
Don't the PLA have satellites for that? Plus I'm sure the MSS have it's people already inside the Myanmar government trying to get a feel for their actions.
JayBird
Junior Member
Sounds like China just setup a No-fly zone near the Myanmar border. The Myanmar side has been acting pretty bold and arrogant from reading the articles. It's almost like they are taunting China to do something about it and blaming China for the deaths of civilians inside China. Even though it was Myanmar fighter jets and bombs that intruding into China and causing the casualties.
Geographer
Junior Member
The Myanmarese (is that the right adjective?) military seems to be pretty arrogant regarding their relations with China. China was the only country to steadily support the Myanmar army during the last two decades of on and off Western sanctions. China was the only country willing to sell them weapons. Now the Myanmar army isn't showing much gratitude.
solarz
Brigadier
Eh, that's pretty typical of most small, neighboring nations of China. Look at North Korea and Vietnam, for example. International Relations will always be based on interests, not gratitude.
plawolf
Lieutenant General
I think we need to be slightly more calm and pragmatic in our assessment of the situation.
I think there are rouge elements within both China and Mynmar that are seeking to escalate the situation to their benefit.
When trying to assess a situation, the most important thing to do is to establish the 'why' of it.
We have to assume that at government level, people do things for a good reason (at least from their POV) and not just out of spite and/or incompetence (mind you, that also happens, but is thankfully rare, and so can generally be easily noticed).
So let's look at the 'why' behind Mynmar bombing Chinese territory.
What has made analysing these incidents so hard is that it simply doesn't make sense for Mynmar to do what they did. Repeatedly dropping bombs on Chinese territory and killing Chinese civilians, well that's indefensible no matter what the reason or provocation.
Never mind that Mynmar hardly has a cosy relationship with the west, even if this was a major western ally like the Philipines, it would be hard for anyone to say much if China took retaliatory military action, like levelling the airfields the strikes were launched from and imposing a NFZ over the entire area.
There are only two semi-plausible explanations that I can think of.
1) The bombings were intended to send a message to Beijing, and the civilian deaths were an unfortunate accident.
From Mynmar's POV, the insurgents are 'ethnic Chinese' as the western media loves to call them, even though Chinese is made up of 56 ethnic minorities, and the people involved are one of these minorities, and not from the Han majority I believe.
They had connections and families in China, often hold Chinese passports. They are getting aid and supplies from those contacts inside China, and frequently hope across the boarder to escape Mynmar troops and launch offensives from Chinese territory.
All of this is often done with local government knowledge if not support.
The Mynmar junta knows about the internal political situation within China, that local governments have a great deal of autonomy, and sometimes overstep their remit and do things the central government most certainly do not approve off.
Thus, the shelling and bombings might have been a desperate attempt to draw Beijing's attention to the situation in the hopes that the central government will take notice of what the local government is doing and put a stop to it.
The intention would have been to just put some craters in a couple of fields, and it was an unfortunate coincidence that people were working the field they bombed.
This is plausible, but not all that likely, since you would think using standard diplomatic channels would have conveyed the message to Beijing effectively enough.
That leaves the second, more likely scenario.
That the bombings were a false flag operation by the rebels in an attempt to draw the Chinese military into the conflict to obliterate the Mynmar government forces for them.
Obviously the rebels do not operate fighter jets, but they could have sympathisers within the military who are either pilots, or ground crew who could potentially supply the pilots with false co-ordinates to attack.
It would not be the first time someone tried that trick.
I think there are rouge elements within both China and Mynmar that are seeking to escalate the situation to their benefit.
When trying to assess a situation, the most important thing to do is to establish the 'why' of it.
We have to assume that at government level, people do things for a good reason (at least from their POV) and not just out of spite and/or incompetence (mind you, that also happens, but is thankfully rare, and so can generally be easily noticed).
So let's look at the 'why' behind Mynmar bombing Chinese territory.
What has made analysing these incidents so hard is that it simply doesn't make sense for Mynmar to do what they did. Repeatedly dropping bombs on Chinese territory and killing Chinese civilians, well that's indefensible no matter what the reason or provocation.
Never mind that Mynmar hardly has a cosy relationship with the west, even if this was a major western ally like the Philipines, it would be hard for anyone to say much if China took retaliatory military action, like levelling the airfields the strikes were launched from and imposing a NFZ over the entire area.
There are only two semi-plausible explanations that I can think of.
1) The bombings were intended to send a message to Beijing, and the civilian deaths were an unfortunate accident.
From Mynmar's POV, the insurgents are 'ethnic Chinese' as the western media loves to call them, even though Chinese is made up of 56 ethnic minorities, and the people involved are one of these minorities, and not from the Han majority I believe.
They had connections and families in China, often hold Chinese passports. They are getting aid and supplies from those contacts inside China, and frequently hope across the boarder to escape Mynmar troops and launch offensives from Chinese territory.
All of this is often done with local government knowledge if not support.
The Mynmar junta knows about the internal political situation within China, that local governments have a great deal of autonomy, and sometimes overstep their remit and do things the central government most certainly do not approve off.
Thus, the shelling and bombings might have been a desperate attempt to draw Beijing's attention to the situation in the hopes that the central government will take notice of what the local government is doing and put a stop to it.
The intention would have been to just put some craters in a couple of fields, and it was an unfortunate coincidence that people were working the field they bombed.
This is plausible, but not all that likely, since you would think using standard diplomatic channels would have conveyed the message to Beijing effectively enough.
That leaves the second, more likely scenario.
That the bombings were a false flag operation by the rebels in an attempt to draw the Chinese military into the conflict to obliterate the Mynmar government forces for them.
Obviously the rebels do not operate fighter jets, but they could have sympathisers within the military who are either pilots, or ground crew who could potentially supply the pilots with false co-ordinates to attack.
It would not be the first time someone tried that trick.
Blackstone
Brigadier
Very well written, Plawolf.
solarz
Brigadier
Wolf, I think this is a case of "do not ascribe to malice that which can be explained by incompetence".
The fact is, air and artillery strikes go astray all the time. It's really not surprising that a 3rd rate military like Myanmar shelling a region near the Chinese border would end up hitting beyond the border from time to time.
As for the Myanmar government's perceived "arrogant" response, I think it's 50% media exaggeration, and 50% the government trying to sound tough for their domestic audience. Note that despite the rhetoric, there's no evidence that Myanmar is refusing to cooperate with Beijing. In fact, the death incident was resolved pretty quickly, with the Myanmar side apologizing and offering compensation.
Shots going astray happen in combat, especially with dumb munitions and the Myanmar military probably doesn't even have the best instruments for aiming dumb munitions. Incompetence is not required, accidents (including instances of friendly fire) happen even with the most advanced aiming and identification systems. The only thing that will prevent such incidents from happening is if the Myanmar military limited itself to not aiming heavy weapons at within several miles on its own side of the border, which they probably have been unwilling to do. We will see if China's military posturing will convince them to do that.
kwaigonegin
Colonel
Slightly but not too much OT 
but anyone here been reading up on the plight of the Rohingas? Apparently hundreds of thousands have sneaked into Malaysia, Indonesia to escape the persecution from the Burmese government... and the human trafficking/abuse there is probably just about as bad with mass graves, slavery, border killings etc
As I understand this is also a regilious persecution except in this case they are Muslims.
but anyone here been reading up on the plight of the Rohingas? Apparently hundreds of thousands have sneaked into Malaysia, Indonesia to escape the persecution from the Burmese government... and the human trafficking/abuse there is probably just about as bad with mass graves, slavery, border killings etcAs I understand this is also a regilious persecution except in this case they are Muslims.