Hongjian over on CDF has written a summary of recent events based off his readings...
At this point I think Chinese patience of Myanmar is running on fumes.
At this point I think Chinese patience of Myanmar is running on fumes.
According to the latest news, the Tatmadaw even crossed into China's border that day when they captured the area around border-mark number 113 and continued to shell Kokang positions. On that occassion, they also fired into China's territory. At that time, Chinese broder guards didnt react.
This morning (June 1st), two hours before China announced the border excercise, the Tatmadaw invaded China's border again around the border-mark no. 144-4. Chinese border guards were present though, and they fired into the air to warn them. The Tatmadaw ignored the warnings and continued their intrusion, so the Chinese border guards warned them again with more shots into the air. But after ignoring that warning again, the PLA border guards actually opened fire and wounded 5 of them.
The Tatmadaw didnt dare to return fire and, while carrying their wounded, ultimately retreated back to their side of the border. This was the very first time that China fired upon the Tatmadaw, but the second time the Tatmadaw invaded China's border with ground troops.
It also seems that China's really gearing up and changing her policies towards Myanmar, following this timeline
还不知道边境军演针对谁的,可以看下时间顺序
之前,果敢同盟军物资在临沧受阻
27日,新书记孙青友代替被中纪委审查的原临沧书记李小平
28日,果敢同盟军的民间援助渠道“云开雾散”
30日,缅军越境占领山头,果敢军顾忌“向中国射击”因此没有还击(与缅军的态度差别)。
31日,武警嘴遁驱离缅军
1日,PLA宣布边境演习,演习终止日期另行宣布。
Basically, the party secretary Li Xiao Ping was kicked out on May 27th and replaced by Sun Qing You. Since then, the 'civilian support routes' supporting the Kokang were fully opened - the evidence is a weibo-post written by a Kokang liason officer on the Chinese side, saying that the supply route is "clear as the sky" now and expressing his thanks to all the Chinese compariots for their support of their struggle:
Then on May 30th, the Tatmadaw intruded into China's territory around the border-mark 113, capturing that hill on the Chinese side, firing into the Chinese territory with no regards towards the people and China's sovereignity. From then on, it was pretty much clear that the shellings of the past were indeed the Tatmadaw's doing and not by the Kokang, whose stance was always not to shoot towards China.
May 31st, the PAP used IFVs (or what does 嘴遁 mean?) to expell the Tatmadaw from that hill near mark 113. Probably without any resistance or use of weapons.
June 1st, the PLA declares its military excercise on the Sino-Myanmar border.
As always, take that with a grain of salt. But judging from the past events, it does look pretty convincing.
Especially interesting is the fact that the Party Secretary of that area was changed out, and that the policy immediately shifted from no support to open support for the Kokang.