I agree with the general thrust of your post, but I expect SHENGAD's IOC to occur around 2032, not in the mid- to late 2030s. The latter dates would imply a longer development process than J-20, and I don't see why that would be the case.
Shenyang next gen combat aircraft thread
- Thread starter Blitzo
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Lethe
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I certainly wouldn't exclude an earlier IOC date along the lines you suggest, but I prefer to be conservative about these things and occasionally pleasantly surprised, rather than optimistic and regularly disappointed. Beyond that, one reason why this aircraft might spend longer in development than J-20 is because having J-35 in the inventory affords PLAN the luxury of doing so. Early 2030s, J-35 will be a modern, performant and still new aircraft that PLAN may well still be getting up to speed on in terms of training, doctrine, the full range of payload integrations, all occurring in the context of a still-evolving carrier development program, i.e. the 004 CVN. Allowing J-XDS to cook for a few more years and emerge either at a higher level of maturity or with a greater level of technology would not be the worst thing in the world.
There is a counter-argument to be made regarding deteriorating strategic circumstances requiring maximum capability to be delivered in minimum timeframe to maintain deterrence, etc. But I think PLAN's choice not to maximise short-term carrier capability by producing additional units of the 003 design suggests that, even if this mode of thought is entertained elsewhere, it is not entertained in relation to the carrier program, where the view is to the longer term, which in turn has implications for the urgency of J-XDS (or other future generation naval combat aircraft).
On second thought, I see your point.
I would amend my argument: I expect SHENGAD, in its land-based variant, to enter service in the early 2030s. The carrier-borne version may well reach IOC a few years later.
Would China have enough carriers real estate to host an additional model of fighter before late 2030s? If we get 004 before 2030, that's still only an additional wing of aircraft, they can easily manufacture enough ~50 J-35s/J-15s to fill out the air wing, plus UAV/Helicopters will also take up some of that space so there's really no need to rush Shenyang's model until catapult equipped carrier numbers/operation reaches maturity.
there is no reason for J-XX to go into service that soon. It brings very little additional capabilities to J-20S.
If J-36 is a strategic game changer, J-XX is just an improved J-35 and J-20S.
If you want to play the generation game you might say J-36 is true 6th gen and SHENGAD is 5.5 or 5.75 gen. Of course we don't know the true capabilities of either plane at this time.
According to the latest development on the 004 carrier thread here, China could be concurrently building two new carriers, a conventionally powered CV-19 and a nuclear-powered CV-20, and the CV-20 will be exceptionally large to accomodate sixth-gen fighter's operation. But I agree there's no need to rush for the carrier version.
Maybe a bit too premature to dismiss it given that we have a single video worth of information. This is also a big plane, bigger than a flanker in terms of dimensions, likely much bigger in terms of volume. No reason to think that it isn't packed with sensors, advance electrical systems, powerful EW capabilities, networking, etc. However, carrier operations likely puts limitations on size and requires more maneuverability considerations. I do hope that we get to see more of it.
This one could be the replacement for J-35, while J-36 could be replacement for J20.
I'd argue the 6th gens will serve as supplements, rather than as replacements, to the 5th gens.