Shenyang FC-31 / J-31 Fighter Demonstrator

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tphuang

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Maybe? Aerodynamic:stealth pair is always a compromise (it was so even on F-117), and getting that this "miles" and "quite a bit" means is difficult. Especially since it may be very different, depending on wavelength and aspect.
For example, we have no reasons to be sure that J-20 is behind F-35 on stealth in general. We have no firm indicators, only guesswork on a level "canards bad for stealth"(c).
This alone kills the "miles" and "quite a bit" pair.
In general, the construction quality on F-35 looks better to me. It looks to me to have better stealth alignment from the back and the side. J-20 to me has some gaps at the back that looks like potentially could give higher returns. It also has more stuff going on with different surfaces that would be harder to manage radar returns from side angles. J-20 looks pretty good to me from frontal point of view. I'm also of the camp that canards are probably a negative for radar signature also.

To me, a production version of FC-31 could be better than J-20, but we need to see more. Until we see a more production worthy version, it's hard to say how good it will be. So far, my biggest concern for it is from the rear end. Now, one big advantage J-20 has would be the more powerful EW suite, which could just make opposing radar harder to track it.
p.s. Su-57 also uses EODAS-like system, as it uses networking ... there is no "either this or that". It's a matter of requirement, and requirement is a matter of intended tactical use, views on priorities, and financial constraints. You may find more
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i just see a lot of side radar of x/l-band everywhere. the MAWs are not the same as EODAS you would find on J-20 or future J-35 imo. All these side radar to me will just light up the passive receivers and are gimmicks. When you install that many strips of l-band radar, are they going to all have LPI property or are they more likely to operate on narrow band and get picked up?
Real prototypes (FC-31v2) don't have EOTS yet. Zhuhai model did...but it was criticized before as unrelated.

Reasons to assume that FC-31 went for a lower standard are quite straightforward, namely:
-it's a dedicated export plane. The purpose is to sell to customers, not to provide area 51 with a purpose-built OPFOR training asset;
-it's an export plane, it is likely outright prohibited from using critical J-20(and J-XY) solutions - for industrial and OPSEC reasons;
-it is an export plane, probably intended to be affordable and absorbable by less advanced air forces;
-it is an export plane, intended to be manufacturable by other nations (your link mentioned it).
Finally, it's SAC plane - different design teams with different experiences, approaches, and views.
All things combined - while it's indeed my guesswork, I think it is fair to assume that signature(s) requirement is different, and is probably lower.
As I said above, I see FC-31 has potential to be more stealth than J-20 just from a layout point of view. To me, it never got the necessary funding until now. And, it's not primarily an export plane. It will be inducted into PLAAF in large numbers. As such, I see the J-35 prototype to be closer to what the land version will look like than FC-31V2. I would expect it to have EOTS and a more modern version of EODAS.
The problem with countries with bottomless pockets is that most of them are themselves in a pocket: military purchases are very political.
Furthermore, China is still a very new entrant for high-end aerospace(we barely got our first J-10 delivery). Before forcing overpriced apples down the throat, it is reasonable to capture the market first.
Also, in its current form, FC-31 will likely be one of the most competitive planes on the market in any case. The problem currently is not with the plane(well, maybe only engines), it's with everything else.

J-20 was at the same point ~3.5 years ago. This isn't exactly long.
Sure, most military purchases are very political. That's why having a product that can appeal to countries with bottomless pocket also allows them to advance political agendas with those countries. With Pakistan's help, China could really approach all these Middle Eastern countries and offer them something that can at least compete with F-35s. It would have similar T/W ratio, possibly shorter range and similar generation of avionics (as the more recent F-35 blocks) and be competitive in stealth. It would take much for these countries to look at FC-31/J-35 and see a stealth aircraft.

As for your other point, I think we cannot compare J-20's progress to su-57 or any other aircraft. J-20 was a huge program success by any measure. It started mass production before anyone thought it would. We will have to see if J-35 can match that. It's a huge leap for China's aerospace industry to be able to mass produce a 5th generation aircraft and still keep up the production quality. That took a lot of investment in production technology and industrial strength to do so. If J-10 was China's Apollo project, J-20 was Apollo 2. F-22 was never produced at the rate that J-20 is produced at. Only F-35 is produced at a higher rate, which speaks for the strength of American aerospace industry. I'd be very impressed to see FC-31/J-35 reach manufacturing stage and mass produced at 30 to 40 aircraft a year. Again, ramping up production of a 5th generation aircraft requiring very precise manufacturing is really hard.

Many for the above arguments, by all commentators, regarding this export aircraft, point to Iran as as ideal target-market.

And, yes, I know, here come the Iran Fear Birds!

I'm sure Iran would want it, but what could they offer in return? More importantly, would that cause China to lose possible sales with Saudi Arabia, UAE, Turkey, Qatar, Egypt, Oman and other countries in the area.
 

Blitzo

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I think this discussion would benefit from an agreement on nomenclature... Namely, differentiating the likely aircraft variant types.

I believe there will end up being three fully developed, in production variants derived from "FC-31" when all is said and done.

1. J-35/XY - the carrier based 5th gen that flew last year which we all have pictures of. For PLAN.
2. A land based J-35/XY variant - derived from 35/XY for PLAAF service. We are expecting this to emerge this year some time.
3. "Export ready FC-31" - an export modified variant of no. 2, with a few sensitive subsystems replaced with export substitutes, but otherwise structurally identical to no. 2. This aircraft would naturally only emerge a few years after no. 2 was ready.

In terms of sharing subsystems/avionics, I expect no.1 and no. 2 to be basically identical, but different structurally (as result of their carrier vs land based roles).

Between no. 2 and no. 3, I expect them to be structurally identical, but have some subsystem differences.

No. 2 and no. 3 would have a similar relationship to how J-10C and J-10CE/CP do -- namely being virtually structurally identical, but where the export variant has some minor subsystem/avionics changes for the customer.
 

iantsai

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Then how is going on since the November 2021 flight?

How can an prototype object fighter aircraft for the 003 carrier, which would be very possiblly commissioned in 2024 or 2025, just flew once in almost half a year?
 

Gloire_bb

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Then how is going on since the November 2021 flight?

How can an object fighter aircraft for the 003 carrier, which would be very possiblly commissioned in 2024 or 2025, just flew once in almost half a year?
Long pause after the first flight is a normal procedure.
Carrier may very well be deployed with J-15T&D airgroup first - i.e. same with 001 class. Plane types and units aren't nailed to it.
 

Blitzo

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Then how is going on since the November 2021 flight?

How can an prototype object fighter aircraft for the 003 carrier, which would be very possiblly commissioned in 2024 or 2025, just flew once in almost half a year?

Actually, we can only say we have had a pause of new pictures of the aircraft in the interim.

Which for SAC, is very normal, as pictures of their activities has always been traditionally scant and inconsistent, and it has become even more secretive over the last few years with increased OPSEC across the scope.

We do not know what the real flight testing of the aircraft has been like.

Putting it another way -- be prepared to wait 1-2 years with minimal or no further pictures of J-35/XY, as that would be entirely expected and reasonable for SAC flight testing of a new fighter aircraft.
All of this complaining of "no new pictures since November 2021" is entirely unreasonable.

I mean, the sheer audacity of expecting consistent pictures.

Heck, are any of us even confident if the pictures we saw released in November 2021 were taken on those same days as they were released?
 

luosifen

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I figure if this is a national priority project SAC worked on round-the-clock they should have an initial production batch ready by the type 003 enters service, unless some major setback occurs.
 

Deino

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Then how is going on since the November 2021 flight?

How can an prototype object fighter aircraft for the 003 carrier, which would be very possiblly commissioned in 2024 or 2025, just flew once in almost half a year?


First like @Bltizo noted, SAC is always much more secretive and we now lesser images from them than from CAC... but to assume, there is no progress is naive.
Otherwise I don't expect the 003 carrier to be commissioned in 2024 or 2025. it is a vastly different carrier to the 002 and requires a lot new testing, I expect alone the testing of the catapult, flight operations and so on with J-15s will take longer than a year and even if it can easily start service with J-15s until the J-35 is ready.
 
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