Shenyang FC-31 / J-31 Fighter Demonstrator

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CasualObserver

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phrozenflame said:
The ideal solution would be to have political settlements on any outstanding issues with Japan and Korea. No country in the neighborhood would like to become a burning pit for US self-interests.
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No country on earth would want a superpower next door (ofc), unless they are a puppet or there's absolutely no other way than to comply. That's just the way it is.

Also, no country on earth would also want to be a lure-bait and a playground for an another country without any interests, it just doesn't make sense.

BUT if a country decides that the emerging superpower next door is such a threat that it is worth taking immense risks no matter the costs, the second paragraph becomes reality.


In Korea's case, there still are possiblities. China still has a long way to pass the current hegemony in both economy and military, (with economy being the more important one). Remember, the future hasn't happened yet, and we can't know what the future will bring. Remember, no one would have thought that there would be a global pandemic just 5 year ago. And that "little" pandemic shook the civilisation and the global order. Meaning, the future has not been set yet and anything can happen,

Anyway, the point is, in S.Korea's case, neither the pros or the cons of containing China alongside others has outweighed the other yet. They are an important U.S. ally and they are disturbed by the growing superpower (as any country would be, that's just the geopolitics for you) BUT they are still cautious. That's why they're setting their own path, you can mostly see this by looking at their defence industry. They haven't decided which way they want to go yet, they are choosing neither side and instead make their own way, or at least for now.

But in Japan's case, they are following the U.S.'s lead, but the uncertainty is, in the event of a crisis, will they help the U.S.? It's impossible to guess but the possiblities are 60% to 40%, imo.

Anyway, I'm avoiding to write more since I know that I can write a page of this topic but in short, these are my guesses.
 
tphuang

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KenC said:
China is getting more serious now in marketing the J-31.

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I'm glad they are getting more serious about marketing/exporting FC-31. Their efforts thus far have been half hearted despite some initial impression that FC-31 was purely for export market. They need a competitive aircraft for the export market. Given the issues that Su-57 have been having in development and production, China should be able to promote FC-31 as something that can be delivered to customers at around the same time frame. More importantly, it would have far better situation awareness, network centric capabilities and stealth than Su-57. I don't see eurocanards, Su-75 and KF-21 as real competitors to FC-31.

China has never had a competitive fighter jet that it has been willing to export. There is a huge market out there that want 5th generation aircraft but cannot access F-35. These are all countries that have money. Just think of Saudi, UAE, Qatar, Brazil, Turkey(????), Malaysia, Egypt, Kuwait, Algeria and Indonesia(???).

The sales pitch should be pretty simple:
1) FC-31/J-35 will be inducted with PLAAF/PLAN in large numbers, so there will be long term support for the aircraft. Aside from F-35 and J-20, I don't see any other 5th generation aircraft reaching similar level of production.
2) There will be continuous rapid improvement to avionics and weaponry provided by China's military industrial complex. Something no country other than America can match.
3) There will be no strings attached on usage of the aircraft. That would appeal to UAE, which recently decided to not buy F-35 due to the onerous terms attached to it.
4) China will be able to mass produce the aircraft and have no problem delivering on time. Again, that's something they would be able to do better than Sukhoi in.
5) Naval version is also available if a country seeks it. That might appeal to Brazil.

As part of the sale, they can also get political concessions back like neutrality or supporting China in any West Pacific or SCS scenario. Allow China to open naval/air base in their country. I'm sure there are other political concessions also.

If you noticed, I haven't mentioned PAF here. I think that China should be open to even exporting J-20 to PAF in the 2030 to 2035 timeframe if Pakistan can guarantee no Western presence around J-20 bases and for a large naval/air base at Gwadar. If they are not comfortable with it, then FC-31 should be offered for sure.
 
Gloire_bb

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tphuang said:
More importantly, it would have far better situation awareness, network centric capabilities and stealth than Su-57. I don't see eurocanards, Su-75 and KF-21 as real competitors to FC-31.
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That's a ... big statement. It needs explanation.
For example, any of mentioned advantages over Su-57 aren't obvious (maybe except for stealth, but this one is by far the trickiest to measure);
KF-21 and especially Su-75 - at best aren't obvious, since neither has even flown yet.
Same is true to large degree even for Eurocanards in their late 2020s form - while stealth is probably given, SA and Networking aren't.
At the very least we know that Rafale F.4 doesn't exactly struggle to find export customers even against the F-35.
tphuang said:
Given the issues that Su-57 have been having in development and production, China should be able to promote FC-31 as something that can be delivered to customers at around the same time frame.
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Su-57 is already in service.
FC-31 first flew in 2012, and it is still most certainly not.
 
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