Shenyang FC-31 / J-31 Fighter Demonstrator

manqiangrexue said:

They waste no time. DF-21D, DF-26 ready, not that Japan's stupid enough to try using Izumo+F-35B to attack China. Nobody fights carrier vs carrier anymore; this isn't WWII.

China's in no rush to put 5th gens on carriers because there is no urgent need. They will take their time to get the design they want, no rush, no mistake, no settling.

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At the risk of going off-topic, I'd like to mention that the DF-21D and DF-25 rely on complex support systems and infrastructure. Any hit to any component of the "kill chain", such as satellites, observational drones and aircraft, ground-based launchers, or OTH radars, would render the system useless.

SinoSoldier said:

At the risk of going off-topic, I'd like to mention that the DF-21D and DF-25 rely on complex support systems and infrastructure. Any hit to any component of the "kill chain", such as satellites, observational drones and aircraft, ground-based launchers, or OTH radars, would render the system useless.

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Isn’t this true for any high tech weapon system that exists on this planet?

Even an iPhone would be useless without its battery. Without WiFi/data, an iPhone is also useless.

SinoSoldier said:

At the risk of going off-topic, I'd like to mention that the DF-21D and DF-25 rely on complex support systems and infrastructure. Any hit to any component of the "kill chain", such as satellites, observational drones and aircraft, ground-based launchers, or OTH radars, would render the system useless.

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It is off topic. But however complex the kill chain, there are redundancies and defensive mechanisms in every step. Multiple satellites, multiple drones, multiple targeting systems, multiple radars, multiple mobile launchers, all with defense mechanisms and/or guarded by other defense systems, precisely so someone doesn't render your whole system useless by making "any hit" to "any component." They would need to take out all or at least most components that cover the same link to significantly weaken or disrupt your chain. They would obviously have to do all this while trying to defend from your ASBMs and your other offensive systems while taking loses to their systems/ships too. And the name o' the game is to set all their ships on fire before they could do it.

It's not a decade long sprint. Japan was always intending to put F-35s on their VTOL carrier. China current naval potential needs to be realised carefully to make greatest use of available assets. If there are actual delays to these big decisions, it's because their choices are more complex. More so than is revealed to us. Like Manqiang said, it's not WW2 anymore. Countering USN and Japanese carriers with F-35 require a more asymmetric approach. Fighting it head on won't work anytime soon.

Well, China does intend to send it's carriers out. Japanese carriers would intercept them. J15 versus F35B immediately would put China at distinctive disadvantage.

And if Japanese feel they have the upper hand they will be more aggressive against PLA

Unless like some of the guys said, just use ASBM to counter Japanese carriers and hide China carriers in the ports or venture no more than 10 miles out and that should be safe.

tidalwave said:

Well, China does intend to send it's carriers out. Japanese carriers would intercept them. J15 versus F35B immediately would put China at distinctive disadvantage.

And if Japanese feel they have the upper hand they will be more aggressive against PLA

Unless like some of the guys said, just use ASBM to counter Japanese carriers and hide China carriers in the ports or venture no more than 10 miles out and that should be safe.

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Anywhere where China is likely to encounter Japan in a real conflict is within the reach of at least DF-26, probably DF-21D too. 10 miles is an ignorant number; these ASBMs have range of 900-2,500 miles, which covers the East China Sea, South China Sea, and all of the Bay of Bengal as well from the Chinese mainland.

The only situation where Liaoning might actually have to fight an Izumo out of the range of ASBMs is if somehow, things got heated in the East China Sea and Liaoning and Izumo were both off somewhere like Africa and they met each other. In that case, Liaoning's likely to have an 055 and some 052D with it, with 1 or more submarines (as will the Japanese). The subs will try to torpedo enemy carriers while the 27,000 ton Izumo will have to fight with a few F-35B against up to 2 dozen J-15 on the 67,000 ton Liaoning. There is no reason for Japan to feel like they have the upper hand at all.

Why are we discussing this? Carriers are not weapons that capable powers use against each other; carriers are used by large powerful nations to intimidate small and weak countries. They are ideal weapons to be asymmetrically countered, which is why China is in no hurry. To counter a Japanese Izumo with F-35B is a goal so small, it's not even on the PLA's radar. The goal is to surpass the United States, by planning things out and doing things right. Reacting nervously to small developments by building poorly-planned carriers with less than ideal fighters is not going in the right direction.

manqiangrexue said:

Anywhere where China is likely to encounter Japan in a real conflict is within the reach of at least DF-26, probably DF-21D too. 10 miles is an ignorant number; these ASBMs have range of 900-2,500 miles.

The only situation where Liaoning might actually have to fight an Izumo out of the protection range of ASBMs is if somehow, things got heated in the East China Sea and Liaoning and Izumo were both off somewhere like Africa and they met each other. In that case, Liaoning's likely to have an 055 and some 052D with it, with 1 or more submarines (as will the Japanese). The subs will try to torpedo enemy carriers while the 27,000 ton Izumo will have to fight with a few F-35B against up to 2 dozen J-15 on the 67,000 ton Liaoning. There is no reason for Japan to feel like they have the upper hand at all.

Why are we discussing this? Carriers are not weapons that capable powers use against each other; carriers are used by large powerful nations to intimidate small and weak countries. They are ideal weapons to be asymmetrically countered, which is why China is in no hurry. To counter a Japanese Izumo with F-35B is a goal so small, it's not even on the PLA's radar. The goal is to surpass the United States, by planning things out and doing things right. Reacting nervously to small developments by building poorly-planned carriers with less than ideal fighters is not going in the right direction.

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Taiwan Situation is very hot right now. China does want use carriers to intimidate Taiwan a bit, wouldn't be better if Liaoning also carry stealth fighters and knowing if they encounter Izumo carrying F35B they don't give anything away?

It's a psychological factor.

As far as setting up DF21D, that's only in war time situation. Even in tense period, they would not be setup.

Like now, if Liaoning is being sent to Taiwan at this moment, DF21D would not be ready.

tidalwave said:

Taiwan Situation is very hot right now. China does want use carriers to intimidate Taiwan a bit, wouldn't be better if Liaoning also carry stealth fighters and knowing if they encounter Izumo carrying F35B they don't give anything away?

It's a psychological factor.

As far as setting up DF21D, that's only in war time situation. Even in tense period, they would not be setup.

Like now, if Liaoning is being sent to Taiwan at this moment, DF21D would not be ready.

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You can sail Liaoning through the Taiwan Strait and there would be nothing that Izumo could do about it regardless of what it's carrying. What does "give anything away" mean? If you're just buzzing each other with no intent to fire anything, there is no advantage to using stealth fighters at all; J-15 is a much faster and more agile buzzer than F-35. As a matter of fact, it would be a horrendous mistake if Japan ever put F-35B in the Taiwan Strait because it would be subject to all sorts of PLA radar testing. Japan would never do such a stupid thing. In the Taiwan Strait, anyone would be covered in Chinese land-launched aircraft and radar. There is no advantage at all to slapping an aircraft carrier together as fast as possible with a compliment of (PLAAF not-approved) J-31 for this situation.

DF-21D can be set up anytime. It's completely mobile. Just don't hit the launch if it's not a real war LOL. And These are BIG boys we're talking about. For ships passing through the 100 mile Taiwan Strait, no DF-21D necessary; all short range anti-ship missiles will do.

manqiangrexue said:

You can sail Liaoning through the Taiwan Strait and there would be nothing that Izumo could do about it regardless of what it's carrying. What does "give anything away" mean? If you're just buzzing each other with no intent to fire anything, there is no advantage to using stealth fighters at all; J-15 is a much faster and more agile buzzer than F-35. As a matter of fact, it would be a mistake because if Japan ever put F-35B in the Taiwan Strait because it would be subject to all sorts of PLA radar testing. Japan would never do such a stupid thing. In the Taiwan Strait, anyone would be covered in Chinese land-launched aircraft and radar. There is no advantage at all to slapping an aircraft carrier together as fast as possible with a compliment of (PLAAF not-approved) J-31 for this situation.

DF-21D can be set up anytime. It's completely mobile. Just don't hit the launch if it's not a real war LOL. And These are BIG boys we're talking about. For ships passing through the 100 mile Taiwan Strait, no DF-21D necessary; all short range missiles will do.

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Again this is psychological. Ask any Japanese soldier, he will feel pretty confident about F35B versus J15 even with DF21D lurking around. Their confidence level is same as your confidence level about Df21D .

I guess that's a draw then

tidalwave said:

Again this is psychological. Ask any Japanese soldier, he will feel pretty confident about F35B versus J15 even with DF21D lurking around. Their confidence level is same as your confidence level about Df21D .

I guess that's a draw then

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DF-21D/DF-26 is independent of what fighters are used. If your carrier is sunk, it doesn't matter if you're confident against the other jet; you have nowhere to go regardless. Now that's intimidating! If Japanese can feel confident F-35B vs three J-15 (because they will be outnumbered that badly due to their smaller carrier), that's his mentality. I don't know if that's true or not; are you saying you interviewed many Japanese soldiers to get this conclusion? There was actually an article in which Japan admitted that seeing Liaoning, their sailors were intimidated for the first time. But anyway, the US is much more confident but they don't go around intercepting Liaoning, do they?

I understand what you're saying. Building a carrier with stealth fighters is a symbol and can be intimidating. It's a very nice thing to have. We all know. But they're not free and they take a lot of time and commitment. These factors have to be weighed. If you jump into a project ill-prepared, you could end up with a big bill to pay, and your ship dock/jet factory occupied for several years building a flawed ship and fighters that you know are not as good as you can get them to be. If your rivals pick up on that, there will be laughter instead of fear. And since China is not building this thing now, I assume that that's where China is at. If she jumps into this thing prematurely because she just can't wait to have stealth fighters on a carrier, she could have sub-optimal stealth fighters on a sub-optimal carrier. If she waits a bit longer for more testing and for technology to improve, she can get a much better carrier with much more suitable stealth fighters, possibly something on the USN's highest level. For example, do you prefer to have J-31 RD-93 on a 70,000 ton ski jump in 2020 or J-XX (possibly new design from Chengdu)/J-31 WS-19 on a 100,000 ton EMALS carrier in 2022? I'll take the latter. It's worth the wait.