Shenyang FC-31 / J-31 Fighter Demonstrator

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Equation

Lieutenant General
Unlike the USN, PLAN is evolving from a standpoint of naval aviation.
We all know with near certainty what the future makeup of carriers will be for the USN, that is the Ford class will be replacing the Nimitz class for the next 50 years, likely longer. Certainly longer than many here today will still be alive.

Same goes with naval aviation.,majority of USN carrier strike fighters will be F35s in the forseeable future. They will be pairing with the superbugs for a very long time to come.... FA XX is at least 15-20 years away from LRIP and to make any predictions at this point is just fool's errant. The only prediction I dare to even make is I think it will be larger than the F35!

It is also quite likely that the next generation of fighters (6th) may also be the last manned ones. 7th Gen could very well be drones.. Either fully autonomous AI or remotely piloted.

PLAN however is still up in the air , no pun intended, compared to the USN. I think most of us here would agree that the Liaoning hull is relatively temporary. It's quite likely that PLAN will field a Ford size type CVN in the next 20 years and continue building them for many more decades afterward.

It's presumptiious to think they will be handicapped with 65-70k ton boats forever. Everything we know thus far is they plan on building bigger supercarriers for the future. A navalized J20 or some other big birdie can operate efficiently in a 100k ton carrier. By then PLAN may decide to decomm Liaoning or sell her to another nation which may potentially make Shandong the ONLY carrier under 75k tons.
Who knows by that time the Liaoning and Shandong could become large LHD or drone ships after their days as a fix wing aircraft carriers are over.
 

TerraN_EmpirE

Tyrant King
To be fair, the CSBA's recent study about US Naval power have judged that they need a stealthy, long range fighter with high air to air capabilities for the near future, that F-35 and Super Hornets simply cannot do. And the USN of course has goals of replacing the Super Hornet with a new "FA-XX" as well, but that probably won't pan out as a 5th generation fighter and probably won't enter service for more than a decade, however the characteristics of such an aircraft seems to resemble more of a stealthy, large fighter than a medium weight one.

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from page 93:
Those plans are for a 6th gen in the early 2030's not a new fifth gen. the Navy will upgrade it's Super hornets to the XT configuration. Which is more of a 4.75 gen. improved sensors conformal tanks decreased RCS external weapons pod

[/quote]
I think many of the demands facing the USN's carrier airwing of the future will be ones that China's future carriers will face too.

So if the Navy really is leaning towards a J-20 variant rather than FC-31, I would approve of such a decision so long as the J-20 variant is able to carry some sort of stand off strike weapon like JSM.
The range/endurance of a naval J-20 would be the primary benefit over a naval FC-31 imo.[/QUOTE]
Size is an issue smaller fighters take up less room, And J20 is bigger then FC31.
 

Blitzo

Lieutenant General
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Those plans are for a 6th gen in the early 2030's not a new fifth gen. the Navy will upgrade it's Super hornets to the XT configuration. Which is more of a 4.75 gen. improved sensors conformal tanks decreased RCS external weapons pod

The CSBA proposal doesn't explicitly talk about a 6th generation fighter, more just a "new" air to air stealth fighter. I'm aware of FA-XX of course, whcih is supposedly meant to be a 6th generation fighter but I don't think the CSBA proposal depicts such a 6th generation aircraft.


Size is an issue smaller fighters take up less room, And J20 is bigger then FC31.

You really haven't kept up with the course of the conversation, it may be worth it for you to read some of the subsequent posts that I've made about the issue of greater range vs greater number of fighters.

It's not as simple as "smaller fighters take up less room = more fighters; more fighters = good; therefore smaller fighters = good".
 

TerraN_EmpirE

Tyrant King
You really haven't kept up with the course of the conversation, it may be worth it for you to read some of the subsequent posts that I've made about the issue of greater range vs greater number of fighters.

It's not as simple as "smaller fighters take up less room = more fighters; more fighters = good; therefore smaller fighters = good".
The point of an Aircraft carrier is you don't need as much range. you brought the Air base with you. Land based Fighters need Range in the offencive but with a Carrier you have a moving airbase. you park it where you want it and operate from there.
 

Blitzo

Lieutenant General
Staff member
Super Moderator
Registered Member
The point of an Aircraft carrier is you don't need as much range. you brought the Air base with you. Land based Fighters need Range in the offencive but with a Carrier you have a moving airbase. you park it where you want it and operate from there.

... can you really think of no good reasons for why increased range and endurance may be of interest for a carrier's airwing?
 

latenlazy

Brigadier
The point of an Aircraft carrier is you don't need as much range. you brought the Air base with you. Land based Fighters need Range in the offencive but with a Carrier you have a moving airbase. you park it where you want it and operate from there.
That *really* depends on the capabilities you need to fulfill your carrier's mission profile. Depending on the situation, longer legs away from your carrier could prove to be essential.
 

TerraN_EmpirE

Tyrant King
I can see want of Range but I am also considering the size of the known PLAN carriers.
I don't see why one would need to operate across the whole of the pacific IF you can move where you need and why you would want only a handful if you can load out more.
 

latenlazy

Brigadier
I can see want of Range but I am also considering the size of the known PLAN carriers.
I don't see why one would need to operate across the whole of the pacific IF you can move where you need and why you would want only a handful if you can load out more.
Your fighters are much faster than your carrier. The closer your carrier has to be to fulfill its mission the more vulnerable it is to an opposing naval defenses.
 

SinoSoldier

Colonel
No disagreement there necessarily, but the purpose of this is to illustrate that assuming many navies are all choosing medium weight fighters for their carriers as if it is some sort of "best fit category" may not be a correct view in the long term.

Depends on what you consider as "long term" in relation to other fighter procurement. The F-35 would be around for at least a couple of decades or more until a notional F/A-XX is put into service. Not sure how Russians plan for the future of their carrier fleets but the rumors range from a naval variant of the T-50 to the lightweight LMFS.

I would credit a naval J-20 with more maturity relative compared to the naval FC-31. No doubt both J-20 and FC-31 would require modifications relative to the existing airframes that they have to be navalized and fulfill whatever requirements the Navy may have for them, but considering the J-20 has had the benefits of many more airframes flying over the years and the benefit of Air Force funded testing and trials for its full range of subsystems that the Air Force is adopting vs whatever testing SAC has managed to get from its two flying airframes.... well yes in that case I would consider a navalized J-20 mod to be starting off from a more mature position than a navalized FC-31 mod.


And as for FC-31 commonality -- well, that's assuming the Air Force commits to the FC-31.

A naval modification to either platform would warrant putting the airframes into flight testing all over again, so I doubt that the J-20's "head start" per se would confer it an advantage during the developmental phase. I'd also mention that the evolution per prototype is far greater on the FC-31 than it is for the J-20 (i.e. the upgrades between flying prototypes are made in far greater increments in the FC-31 program than for the J-20 program).

I feel like this is a very weak argument suggesting that J-20 would not have the capability to field A2G weapons internally, especially when we are talking about a notional naval J-20 vs a notional naval FC-31.

I'd harbor doubts about its A2G prospect until the J-20 actually goes A2G weapons integration (we have seen none thus far). The FC-31 probably hasn't undergone weapons integration but at least the program shows intent to give it A2G capabilities.

Let's not be so black and white about this -- yes they would have a target number of fighters they would like to be able to field, but that would also depend on the qualitative capabilities of the fighters themselves.

To some extent, perhaps, but quality can only account for a limited discrepancy in number. And I'd be cautious about labeling the J-20 as a more potent fighter to a major degree.

The fact that you're perplexed I think would directly insinuate that you believe such a decision would be unreasonable.

It's not up to anyone (myself included) to decide whether such a decision would be "reasonable" or not; that is why you have military committees to do that. It doesn't take much to see that the PLAN is going against the flow in this aspect of naval aviation.

Of course, that is assuming that rumors are accurate and that the J-20 is indeed being preferred over the FC-31 (many pieces of evidence/clues imply otherwise).

This is just flat out wrong. The FC-31 will not be carrying any "heavy" air-to-surface munitions of any kind unless they are slung externally. If they could carry small antiship missiles the size of the C-704KD internally that would already be an accomplishment. You should review the lengths of standard antiship missiles like the YJ-83 and then ask yourself in how the world they could possibly fit into any fighter's weapons bay.

I think we need to review some exhibitions from Zhuhai 2016:

acc0aa1a279e737829be67e3af8ae7f8.jpg

The FC-31 could carry 4 500-kg bombs or 4 supersonic ASMs in its internal bays. I never insinuated that it could carry YJ-83-class missiles in its bay, although the 4 ASMs could easily be substituted by a lightweight anti-ship weapon.
 

Air Force Brat

Brigadier
Super Moderator
Unlike the USN, PLAN is evolving from a standpoint of naval aviation.
We all know with near certainty what the future makeup of carriers will be for the USN, that is the Ford class will be replacing the Nimitz class for the next 50 years, likely longer. Certainly longer than many here today will still be alive.

Same goes with naval aviation.,majority of USN carrier strike fighters will be F35s in the forseeable future. They will be pairing with the superbugs for a very long time to come.... FA XX is at least 15-20 years away from LRIP and to make any predictions at this point is just fool's errant. The only prediction I dare to even make is I think it will be larger than the F35!

It is also quite likely that the next generation of fighters (6th) may also be the last manned ones. 7th Gen could very well be drones.. Either fully autonomous AI or remotely piloted.

PLAN however is still up in the air , no pun intended, compared to the USN. I think most of us here would agree that the Liaoning hull is relatively temporary. It's quite likely that PLAN will field a Ford size type CVN in the next 20 years and continue building them for many more decades afterward.

It's presumptiious to think they will be handicapped with 65-70k ton boats forever. Everything we know thus far is they plan on building bigger supercarriers for the future. A navalized J20 or some other big birdie can operate efficiently in a 100k ton carrier. By then PLAN may decide to decomm Liaoning or sell her to another nation which may potentially make Shandong the ONLY carrier under 75k tons.


Now this right here is a smart young man! He is the USN, he knows their think inside and out, cause he is an insider, we are very blessed on the Sino Defense Forum to have two USN veterans who are real thinkers and real gentlemen..

Thanks Kwai for your insight,,, I always stop to read your posts as well as BD's, and throw our buddy Jeff Head in because he is a Navy Brat, and followed in his own Father's footsteps to become an engineer, and a friend and admirer of the Chinese people in particular, We could go on and on from Deino, TPHuang, and to each of you, we have been blessed with perspective.

So great discussion on a real "forum" gents, nice to hear opposing/complimentary views and hear some of your reasoning behind your opinions, keep up the good work gents, and I appreciate your passionate, yet gentlemanly tone..... thumbs up!

I wish the Navy had followed with a Naval version of the F-22, it would have been a real "Wildcat"!
 
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