Shenyang FC-31 / J-31 Fighter Demonstrator

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Verum

Verum

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latenlazy said:
We don't know how expensive this plane is. You're also forgetting Malaysia, Indonesia, Argentina, Brazil, Vietnam, Saudi Arabia, Qatar, UAE, Turkey etc etc.

And I wouldn't use the JF-17's record to determine how successful or not the J-31 will be. They're two very different products geared towards different demands. That's not to say the J-31 will be successful, but that it's opportunities are not as limited as you're suggesting.
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Malaysia, Indonesia and Vietnam have territorial disputes with China, especially Vietnam, whom just had a war with China not too long ago. The Gulf states never buy weapons like these from China, they buy straight from EU or US. Even if they wanted to, the West would not let them buy from China. Turkey is a NATO country with American missiles on their land. To this day, months after the missile purchase news, they still have not finalized the purchase and mentioned time and time again that they highly value "suggestions" from the West. Brazil and Argentina never bought weapons from China.

If we take a deep thought and really think it through, you can see that geopolitically, no one will buy large batch of warplanes from China, apart from those poor and underdeveloped countries. At least in the forseeable future, next 10 - 20 years, China will not be able to export anything too significant, due to geopoliticality.

As for the price. Even JF17 is very expensive for Pakistan. The Chinese is the main funder of the program, not the Pakistanis. Doesn't matter how cheap J-31 will be, it is still a 5th generation fighter. The cheapest F-16 now is already 70-80 million. J-10 was 30-40 million about 10 years ago. Due to drastic domestic inflation and rise of the RMB, J-10 wouldn't be that much less than the base model F-16. Adding onto the fact that J-31 is a 5th generation warplane, it will be very expensive. Obviously it won't be F35 level, but for sure definitely approaching or even exceeding the 100 million mark. Unless the Chinese are willing to throw in another few billion dollars, they Pakistanis will not be able to afford even 10 J-31.

How many countries out there that has good relations with China, that is rich enough to afford it, not part of the "Pro-/NATO Camp", doesn't have territorial dispute with China and is not under international sanctions?

All I can think of is Brazil, Thailand, Egypt, and Argentina, but none of them ever even showed interests or desires in 5th gen planes.
 
L

latenlazy

Brigadier
Verum said:
Malaysia, Indonesia and Vietnam have territorial disputes with China, especially Vietnam, whom just had a war with China not too long ago. The Gulf states never buy weapons like these from China, they buy straight from EU or US. Even if they wanted to, the West would not let them buy from China. Turkey is a NATO country with American missiles on their land. To this day, months after the missile purchase news, they still have not finalized the purchase and mentioned time and time again that they highly value "suggestions" from the West. Brazil and Argentina never bought weapons from China.

If we take a deep thought and really think it through, you can see that geopolitically, no one will buy large batch of warplanes from China, apart from those poor and underdeveloped countries. At least in the forseeable future, next 10 - 20 years, China will not be able to export anything too significant, due to geopoliticality.

As for the price. Even JF17 is very expensive for Pakistan. The Chinese is the main funder of the program, not the Pakistanis. Doesn't matter how cheap J-31 will be, it is still a 5th generation fighter. The cheapest F-16 now is already 70-80 million. J-10 was 30-40 million about 10 years ago. Due to drastic domestic inflation and rise of the RMB, J-10 wouldn't be that much less than the base model F-16. Adding onto the fact that J-31 is a 5th generation warplane, it will be very expensive. Obviously it won't be F35 level, but for sure definitely approaching or even exceeding the 100 million mark. Unless the Chinese are willing to throw in another few billion dollars, they Pakistanis will not be able to afford even 10 J-31.

How many countries out there that has good relations with China, that is rich enough to afford it, not part of the "Pro-/NATO Camp", doesn't have territorial dispute with China and is not under international sanctions?

All I can think of is Brazil, Thailand, Egypt, and Argentina, but none of them ever even showed interests or desires in 5th gen planes.
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Territorial disputes have not prevented arms sales in the past, and in Malaysia's case the disputes have not gotten contentious (in fact, it's more likely that Malaysia is leaning towards cooperation with China on the disputed territory to stick it to the Philippines and Vietnam). (Indonesia doesn't have disputes with China). The point is the Gulf states have nothing keeping them from buying Chinese. It's just that China hasn't had a product they want to buy yet. The missile sales, finalized or not, indicate that Turkey is in fact not an impossibility. Brazil and Argentina may have never bought from China before, but that doesn't preclude them from buying from China in the future. Never buying from China before does not preclude those countries from buying from China.

Having good relations with NATO is not mutually exclusive from having good relations with China (state to state relationships are not binaries), and those that have relations with NATO are not obligated to abide by NATO's every desire. There will also be more available customers as some countries continue to develop. Having no interest in a 5th generation fighter now does not preclude a country from developing interests in the future.

Anyways, like I said earlier, none of this is any guarantee that the J-31 will have customers, BUT my main point was that none of the factors you listed categorically preclude those possibilities either. They don't even make sales unlikely.
 
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thunderchief

thunderchief

Senior Member
At the present moment, China has no firm commitment from any other country to buy J-31. That makes big difference compared to F-35 (many buyers) or even PAK-FA (India) . R&D of 5th gen fighter is expensive and somebody has to pay for all of that. If Chinese government decides to pony up cash for J-31 that would mean just one thing : J-31 will be mainstay of PLAAF in the future, replacing J-7 and later J-10 . There's no chance for China spending all that money just to offer J-31 for export which may or may not materialize .

On the other hand, Chinese officials are not yet ready to make final decision about PLAAF's future . They already have J-20 as high cost/high capability platform , but haven't decided what would be low cost/lower capability part of equation . It could be J-31, but it also could be some modernized version of J-10 as stealth may prove no to be such deciding quality in real air war. Therefore they are still withholding necessary funds for development of J-31 .Without that money, all the talk is purely speculative . Future of J-31 lies in hands of China's decision makers.
 
Air Force Brat

Air Force Brat

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adeptitus said:
Like it or not, the F-22 will remain the most advanced and capable stealth fighter for years to come. One reason why the US Government decided not to export the F-22 aircraft, is to prevent the proliferation its technology, and to maintain America's leading position. There is no downgraded F-22 export variant, because the F-35 already serves that role.

As for China's J-20 and J-31, they're not anywhere near export status.
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That's an affirm on each element, nothing in the upper realm with the F-22-although archaic in some respects, that technology is not easily replicated, just the opposite with the F-35, that technology was designed to be replicated/updated, but is NOT "cutting edge".

As for the J-20/J-31, they are likely a similar pairing, although the J-20 is just through the initial flyable prototype stage, and beginning of a near production stage of testing, so still a long way out, and both will face similar challenges/expenses to our own US birds, so they will cost lots of "jack". While they are factors in long range planning, they are not factors in the next 3-5 years, so we shall see what course China decides they "need" to take.
 
Dizasta1

Dizasta1

Senior Member
Verum said:
Pakistan can't afford a plane as expensive as this, unless China gives it to Pakistan through loans (de jure) but really just gifts (de facto). Any warplanes wouldn't be effective unless there are large number of it, even for the mighty F22. If Pakistan wants to match Indian Airforce's dominance in the region, they would need at least 100+ of those birds, that's still assuming India doesn't have PAK-FA yet. If Indians do have PAKFA, then they'll need few hundred of those planes to just even catch up.
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My friend, have you ever looked at Israel's Air Force? A country such as Israel, which has no real wealth of it's own and is significantly dependent on U.S Aid and financial support from Pro-Zionist corporations, groups or individuals. Yet, when one compares Israel to it's neighbors like Saudis, who're oil rich, israeli Air Force is far superior to them both in quantity and quality. Israel has one of the largest fleets of F-16s outside the U.S, also has a large fleet of F-15s which custom built with Israeli parts. In fact, it is very likely that the Israeli f-16s and f-15s, we're given with source codes for these aircraft to operate with Israeli made avionics.

Also, not forgetting that F-35s have been earmarked for Israeli Air Force, around 70 of them. You think that Israel could afford them on their own? If you do, then you surely lack in knowledge on how much U.S military aid (declared & undeclared) has armed Israel to the teeth, when compared to its neighbors.

All of this was possible, not because Israel could afford this, rather because America treats Israel as it's fore most ally in the region.

So for you to say that Pakistan can't afford the J-31s, is hardly something to think about. Since Pakistan is China's primary ally in the region and again, if Pakistan's strategic requirement shows the need to have Gen-5 fighters. Then this requirement will be pursued through the appropriate channels. That does NOT mean that China would lay down the red carpet for Pakistan. But rather, that the two allies will work on practical ways to address Pakistan's strategic need. Be it via financing, or via loans, or via third party financing or an outright buy. We cannot say with dead certainty what Pakistan and China would or will not do. Unless of course you claim to be an expert on Sino-Pak alliance?
 
tphuang

tphuang

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Verum said:
Malaysia, Indonesia and Vietnam have territorial disputes with China, especially Vietnam, whom just had a war with China not too long ago. The Gulf states never buy weapons like these from China, they buy straight from EU or US. Even if they wanted to, the West would not let them buy from China. Turkey is a NATO country with American missiles on their land. To this day, months after the missile purchase news, they still have not finalized the purchase and mentioned time and time again that they highly value "suggestions" from the West. Brazil and Argentina never bought weapons from China.

If we take a deep thought and really think it through, you can see that geopolitically, no one will buy large batch of warplanes from China, apart from those poor and underdeveloped countries. At least in the forseeable future, next 10 - 20 years, China will not be able to export anything too significant, due to geopoliticality.

As for the price. Even JF17 is very expensive for Pakistan. The Chinese is the main funder of the program, not the Pakistanis. Doesn't matter how cheap J-31 will be, it is still a 5th generation fighter. The cheapest F-16 now is already 70-80 million. J-10 was 30-40 million about 10 years ago. Due to drastic domestic inflation and rise of the RMB, J-10 wouldn't be that much less than the base model F-16. Adding onto the fact that J-31 is a 5th generation warplane, it will be very expensive. Obviously it won't be F35 level, but for sure definitely approaching or even exceeding the 100 million mark. Unless the Chinese are willing to throw in another few billion dollars, they Pakistanis will not be able to afford even 10 J-31.

How many countries out there that has good relations with China, that is rich enough to afford it, not part of the "Pro-/NATO Camp", doesn't have territorial dispute with China and is not under international sanctions?

All I can think of is Brazil, Thailand, Egypt, and Argentina, but none of them ever even showed interests or desires in 5th gen planes.
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Indonesia and Malaysia have both bought weapons from China recently. The arab countries have also bought different types of weapons from China recently. Don't make any assumptions on knowing how much Project 310 aircraft will cost. You are also off on the cost of J-10 by a lot.
 
A

adeptitus

Captain
VIP Professional
Verum said:
As for the price. Even JF17 is very expensive for Pakistan. The Chinese is the main funder of the program, not the Pakistanis. Doesn't matter how cheap J-31 will be, it is still a 5th generation fighter. The cheapest F-16 now is already 70-80 million. J-10 was 30-40 million about 10 years ago. Due to drastic domestic inflation and rise of the RMB, J-10 wouldn't be that much less than the base model F-16. Adding onto the fact that J-31 is a 5th generation warplane, it will be very expensive. Obviously it won't be F35 level, but for sure definitely approaching or even exceeding the 100 million mark. Unless the Chinese are willing to throw in another few billion dollars, they Pakistanis will not be able to afford even 10 J-31.
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IMO the only way that J-10's cost would reach ~$100 million USD today, is if the aircraft was produced in small numbers and the cost represents total program cost divided by a small number of aircraft. Actually, that is the only honest way to calculate procurement cost (total program cost / total # produced).

Considering the number of J-10's produced to date, it's highly unlikely that the cost per plane would be anywhere near ~$100 million USD. However, if the plane was exported, and the export package includes munitions, training, infrastructure, maintenance contract, spare parts, R&D cost share for "export variant", localization, etc., then yes, it might reach $100 million.
 
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Air Force Brat

Air Force Brat

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tphuang said:
Indonesia and Malaysia have both bought weapons from China recently. The arab countries have also bought different types of weapons from China recently. Don't make any assumptions on knowing how much Project 310 aircraft will cost. You are also off on the cost of J-10 by a lot.
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any sightings on our little "black bird" lately, it seems to go in waves, a little here, a little there, but it seems to have staying power...
 
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