Shenyang FC-31 / J-31 Fighter Demonstrator

China has recently signed an agreement with Pakistan & going to invest 35 billion $ coming 7 years.

For PN the talks are almost in final stage for PN's shopping list of 6 SSKs, 4-8 FFGs on soft loan basis, kindly keep in mind that PN are extensively involved in tailoring of SSKs with Chinese counter parts.

For PAF, JF17 program is underway now, where BLK2 is now in the making & working is on for BLK3. J10B (FC20) is almost certain.

Since PAF is not interested in Flankers hence no possibility for any variants induction in near future, but J31 IMO is very big YES, but all depends how the program progresses because PAF have covered all current scenarios with above planned inductions to counter IAF, now remaining is for PAK-FA.

vesicles said:

Yes, a private company may be able to make decision to sacrifice all other projects and focus on one thing. SAC is a govn't agency. The Chinese govn't, or any govn't, may not sit too well with wasting tax payers' money on a pet project that they don't believe is worthwhile. Yes, SAC may have its own little bank with tons of private money stashed somewhere, but if they decide to invest the money in some other project, that would mean the govn't doesn't t have to give SAC as huge a budget. Also, those working at SAC are still govn't employees. Pulling them away from much more important projects and putting them on a little pet project would not sit too well with any govn't agency in any country.

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although i don't think that j-31 should be called a "pet project," it was built with a different role than the j-20 with observably lower goverment priority.

i cannot however agree with your claim that the state sector is more prudent with taxpayer money than private firms. that is a mistaken assumption; private firms attach disincentives to executives for making unprofitable decisions because their money is not unlimited, unlike the situation that many lucky SOEs are in.

Deino said:

.. both are completely different birds. different in requirement, in budget, in priority and even more in configuration ... resulting in a different role. As such IMO both types could complement each other maybe even better then F.22 & F-35 are supposed to do, esp. since the J-20 will surely not substitute each and every Flanker on a 1 on 1 basis. IMO it will be more something like a silver bullet in probably higher numbers than the Raptor, but I can't think of more than 300.

The J-31 in contrast "could" - and that's where politics are the main matter - be the next standard fighter for both the PLAAF and PLANAF ... but it depends on the flight test result, the political will and ability to fully develop and field a second 5th. generation type and most of all - for both types the weak point - the availability of engines.

Deino

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I think the F-22/F-35 comparison you make is a good one.

The F-22 is now the US's silver bullet. It was originally meant to replacer the F-15 air superiority fighters...but there are not nearly enough to do so. So the couple of hundred the US does have will be sparingly used and held in reserve for any truly critical situations.

The F-35 on the other hand, will be replacing many aircraft in the US service...and will do so in its three variants for the Air Force, Navy and Marines. There are going to be close to 3,000 of them...and it will be very widely exported.

I believe the J-20 will be built in larger numbers than the F-22...they would be crazy not too, and will not have the types of liberal, progressive influences openly trying to reduce them. I expect 300-400 of them. I do not epect they will export those aircraft ever. Just as the US has refused to export the F-22. Just too high tech to rosk.

Something like the J-31 will come along as a more robust, multi-role, cheaper 5th generation solution that the PLAN will build in larger numbers over along period of time. Perhaps it will be the J-31 if testing proves it capable. Will it be exported? Perhaps...but also doubtful. China does not have the guge list of allies and agreements that the US has. There are very few target nations for such exportation...and I believe exportation to Pakistan is still too risky for the Chinese given the very issues you raise.

But the J-31 has more potential for export than the J-20, and the J-31 (or whatever aircraft ultimately fills that role) will be built in large numbers IMHO.

Wil t

Jeff Head said:

I think the F-22/F-35 comparison you make is a good one.

The F-22 is now the US's silver bullet. It was originally meant to replacer the F-15 air superiority fighters...but there are not nearly enough to do so. So the couple of hundred the US does have will be sparingly used and held in reserve for any truly critical situations.

The F-35 on the other hand, will be replacing many aircraft in the US service...and will do so in its three variants for the Air Force, Navy and Marines. There are going to be close to 3,000 of them...and it will be very widely exported.

I believe the J-20 will be built in larger numbers than the F-22...they would be crazy not too, and will not have the types of liberal, progressive influences openly trying to reduce them. I expect 300-400 of them. I do not epect they will export those aircraft ever. Just as the US has refused to export the F-22. Just too high tech to rosk.

Something like the J-31 will come along as a more robust, multi-role, cheaper 5th generation solution that the PLAN will build in larger numbers over along period of time. Perhaps it will be the J-31 if testing proves it capable. Will it be exported? Perhaps...but also doubtful. China does not have the guge list of allies and agreements that the US has. There are very few target nations for such exportation...and I believe exportation to Pakistan is still too risky for the Chinese given the very issues you raise.

But the J-31 has more potential for export than the J-20, and the J-31 (or whatever aircraft ultimately fills that role) will be built in large numbers IMHO.

Wil t

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The reason the J-31 has export potential is because China's list of potential customers is growing with the growth of emerging markets. It's entirely possible that we could see J-31s in Southeast Asia (Malaysia, Indonesia), and Latin America one day.

Jeff Head said:

The F-22 is now the US's silver bullet. It was originally meant to replacer the F-15 air superiority fighters...but there are not nearly enough to do so. So the couple of hundred the US does have will be sparingly used and held in reserve for any truly critical situations.

................

I believe the J-20 will be built in larger numbers than the F-22...they would be crazy not too, and will not have the types of liberal, progressive influences openly trying to reduce them. I expect 300-400 of them. I do not epect they will export those aircraft ever. Just as the US has refused to export the F-22. Just too high tech to rosk.

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i don't think america limits its numbers of f-22s because of "progressive" influences. i think its simply a matter of cost and changing demands of potential battle scenarios after the end of the cold war. i do agree in that i don't think the chinese will be exporting the j-20 in the foreseeable term.

Jeff Head said:

Something like the J-31 will come along as a more robust, multi-role, cheaper 5th generation solution that the PLAN will build in larger numbers over along period of time. Perhaps it will be the J-31 if testing proves it capable.

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i concur.

Jeff Head said:

...China does not have the guge list of allies and agreements that the US has. There are very few target nations for such exportation...and I believe exportation to Pakistan is still too risky for the Chinese given the very issues you raise.

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i disagree, china has looked to export to anyone willing to buy their weapons. it's true that unlike the u.s. china does not have a huge list of allies with exclusive weapons contracts, but china also doesn't have a list of countries on which it imposes an arms embargo. some countries (the west) may not wish to buy chinese weapons because of existing agreements with the u.s. and political stigma but if they DID want to buy chinese arms i doubt china would refuse.

i argue that china's arms industries targets many more countries than the america's-(anyone willing to buy them v.s. allies and existing clients) and that there is no reason to think china won't sell pakistan something like the j-31 when the j-10 deal is still on the table and since china already gave pakistan nukes.

stibyssip said:

i don't think america limits its numbers of f-22s because of "progressive" influences.

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They do...it's politics and depending on the administration and their politics, changes occur...on both sides of the aisle.

stibyssip said:

i think its simply a matter of cost and changing demands of potential battle scenarios after the end of the cold war.

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The decision to stop the F-22 production occurred many years after the cold war ended. The fighter was designed to address emerging capabilities long after the cold war...which it does very well. The issue of cost is a red herring as the aircraft was already in serial production and every new plane reduced the overall cost per aircraft. The decision to stop it was based on a demonstrably false premise that no other nations had yet produced a fighter capable of dealing with the F-22.

So? That is a good thing.

Nonetheless, less than two years after the congressional decision in July 2009 to stop producing it, Russian (January 2010) and then China (January 2011) both flew their own 5th generation aircraft. Which means they were far along in the design and development phase when the decision to stop the F-22 was taken.

It was a political decision to try and save money which could be spent (and over spent) on progressive social programs. Which is exactly what they have done.

stibyssip said:

i disagree, china has looked to export to anyone willing to buy their weapons. it's true that unlike the u.s. china does not have a huge list of allies with exclusive weapons contracts, but china also doesn't have a list of countries on which it imposes an arms embargo. some countries (the west) may not wish to buy chinese weapons because of existing agreements with the u.s. and political stigma but if they DID want to buy chinese arms i doubt china would refuse.

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I am speaking of the J-20 specifically, which you agreed that the Chinese would not export to Pakistan. I do not believe that the PRC will ever offer the J-20 to Pakistan.

As to other systems, well of course China has already shown a willingness to export those systems to Pakistan (frigates, aircraft, etc.) and will continue to do so. There was no intent on my part to say or imply anything differently as regards Pakistan.

The fact is, right now there is not a huge list...but China is definitely increasing those numbers and will continue to do so. The sale of patrol vessels and frigates to other nations in Asia and Africa, and the recent air defense system competition the PRC won in Turkey are all ample evidence of this.

Jeff Head said:

The decision to stop the F-22 production occurred many years after the cold war ended. The fighter was designed to address emerging capabilities long after the cold war...which it does very well. The issue of cost is a red herring as the aircraft was already in serial production and every new plane reduced the overall cost per aircraft. The decision to stop it was based on a demonstrably false premise that no other nations had yet produced a fighter capable of dealing with the F-22.

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Isn't it true? 5 years later and there are still no other 5gen aircraft in service outside of the USA and it will take another 5 years until China and Russia are deploying the first 5gen aircraft + several years until they hit full operational service.

The 187 F-22 will dominate all possible warzones for at least another 1 1/2 decades.

Jeff Head said:

It was a political decision to try and save money which could be spent (and over spent) on progressive social programs. Which is exactly what they have done.

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The Bush administration half-killed the F-22 by capping production at 183 some ten years ago, and Obama/Gates performed the coup de grace.

But don't worry, the JSF will... Sorry, I can't keep a straight face.

I sometimes do wonder what the real reason was for terminating the F-22. Was there an element of buyer's remorse? Did F-22 not live up to expectations? Did the air force regret not choosing the YF-23?


P.S. I doubt Bush wanted to divert F-22 funding toward 'progressive social programs'.

by78 said:

The Bush administration half-killed the F-22 by capping production at 183 some ten years ago, and Obama/Gates performed the coup de grace.

But don't worry, the JSF will... Sorry, I can't keep a straight face.

I sometimes do wonder what the real reason was for terminating the F-22. Was there an element of buyer's remorse? Did F-22 not live up to expectations? Did the air force regret not choosing the YF-23?


P.S. I doubt Bush wanted to divert F-22 funding toward 'progressive social programs'.

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Complacency and false advertising.

The US thought their lead so great that the F22 was in essence too much of an overkill. They thought even the F35 would be way beyond what anyone else could field before they roll out 6th gens, so why 'waste' money buying more F22s when they could buy 2 or 3 F35s for the price of a single Raptor instead?

The problem with any 5th gen aircraft (looks to be some derivative of J-31 as of now) that China seeks to export is that all the big Western markets are strictly off limit since F-35 has that cornered. Any country that wants to join the EU will probably only purchase Western aircraft at this point. Most of China's traditional export clients in Africa, Latin America and Asia cannot afford one. So, it will be most likely up against PAK-FA for the the remaining markets. You are looking at the Arab countries, ASEAN countries and of course Pakistan. F-35 is most likely not going to be available to them in the near future for political and production reasons. Of course in Arab countries, China will still have to face off against euro canards and super semi-stealth version of F-15.