Shenyang FC-31 / J-31 Fighter Demonstrator

AssassinsMace said:

I think the stereotype of the communist iron fisted control of everything is fiction. I've mentioned before that there's a competition between cities for the tallest most daring designs of buildings going on. It's said that in part is causing economic problems where cities are spending too much money in this competition. There are fewer players in the Chinese defense industries but there have been stories of arms companies going on their own to sell weapons around the world. The PLA was also said to have their own businesses that have nothing to do with military defense.

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You misunderstood me. What I said was Chinese government background institutes and corporations are bureaucratic, not that China has an iron curtain and iron fist. When one agency wants something done from another agency of equal level, it's usually hard to get it done. There's too much bureaucracy involved, in most cases, people would just not listen or give a damn.
On the contrary, if an order comes from above, then it's always done ASAP, because for the guys receiving the order, their promotion and bonuses depend on it.

This is a problem for all countries and cultures, but just more prominent in less developed countries like BRIC nations.


Back to topic,

The PLAN also denied that the J-31 is planned as future carrier-capable aircraft, so there is not really a place for another technology monster.

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Where's the source for this?

Judging from the design of J-31, reinforced landing gear and twin engine, which both are rare for its class but common for carrier fighters. Of course we can't guarantee it to go on carriers, but it's highly likely. Otherwise, it would be a waste to put twin engines and reinforced landing gears on a medium fighter.

It's true that the Cold War is over and there's no big push for all-best-&-latest, but J-15 is already a generation behind F-35 and the latter will go to sea very soon. It's very likely for China to be planning ahead.

It is hard for me to believe that SAC is actually developing the J-31 on its own. Let's first assume that the J-312 has absolutely no backing from the govn't and the PLAAF/PLAN. Even assuming SAC has its own internal budget from selling engines, etc, that money can be spent elsewhere if the Chinese govn't doesn't think the J-31 is worth while. After all, SAC is a govn't agency. Its budget will have to be approved by the gonv't. If SAC can divert the much needed money to some other more urgent and more important projects, that means the gonv't will shoulder less burden and give a smaller budget to SAC (since SAC is loaded with its internal money). That money will be spent elsewhere. Another thing will be personnel. Development of the J-31 requires huge amount of talented scientists, engineers and technicians. These people could be used somewhere else if those projects take precedence. Allowing such a high profile project like the J-31 to exist while believing that that it is going nowhere is like throwing money and valuable talent down the drain. Not only that, it is slowing down other more important projects. At this day and age when China is desperately trying to catch up, the one thing that China cannot afford to lose is time.

Thus, I don't think SAC is on its own with the J-31. It must have govn't backing and full support.

Deino said:

To admit - even if it might be short-sighted or naive due to a lack of understanding of the Aviation scene in China – I can’t think that SAC can stem the sum to develop a fifth generation fighter by its own income alone … especially with reportedly a second prototype now under discussion.

I can’t think that a state-owned enterprise like SAC is free enough to develop such a costly (both in real money but also manpower and even more subsystems) without any given budget.

If this is due to a certain operational requirement from either the PLAAF or PLANAF is not the question, it might even simply be a political move to keep SAC busy, to not widen the gap between SAC and CAC even more … I think we can imagine a few more possible reasons. But I’m almost sure that there is more behind than simply a PR-gag.

Deino

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I've said this before, but based on what I read they are getting funding from PLA on the J-31 even though it's not an official project yet. At this point 31001 is more like a technology demonstrator. Once J-31 does become official, we will see more prototype iterations like J-20 project.

As you said, it's definitely not like 2011, which is probably more like the first pre-production prototype.

I think it is indeed nothing formal for China (and Pakistan)... And China is fully involved in J20 first... But I do think it is not a big gamble. If one can produce a much cheaper version that can assist J20 then there is the same link as the f22 and JSF...

Verum said:

You misunderstood me. What I said was Chinese government background institutes and corporations are bureaucratic, not that China has an iron curtain and iron fist. When one agency wants something done from another agency of equal level, it's usually hard to get it done. There's too much bureaucracy involved, in most cases, people would just not listen or give a damn.
On the contrary, if an order comes from above, then it's always done ASAP, because for the guys receiving the order, their promotion and bonuses depend on it.

This is a problem for all countries and cultures, but just more prominent in less developed countries like BRIC nations.

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I'm saying there are billionaires in China that the government doesn't know about until they've made too much money underground to hide and then they get arrested. If the PLA is making money through their own business ventures, I'm sure CAC and SAC are making money too on the side. If an individual can make a billion dollars under the table, how much can an organization make to where Beijing is okay with them making money on their own?

There does seem like there's a personal competition between SAC and CAC. Something argued by critics of China that say it needs in order to innovate. At some level that is happening and if that's happening, they're probably making their own money to make their own decisions to develop things like the J-31. That's of course if it's correct the military didn't back this project.

AssassinsMace said:

I'm saying there are billionaires in China that the government doesn't know about until they've made too much money underground to hide and then they get arrested. If the PLA is making money through their own business ventures, I'm sure CAC and SAC are making money too on the side. If an individual can make a billion dollars under the table, how much can an organization make to where Beijing is okay with them making money on their own?

There does seem like there's a personal competition between SAC and CAC. Something argued by critics of China that say it needs in order to innovate. At some level that is happening and if that's happening, they're probably making their own money to make their own decisions to develop things like the J-31. That's of course if it's correct the military didn't back this project.

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That claim is just too......

If you say they make money through dealing real estate or manipulating stock prices, I might agree with you. But.......warplane?? On this scale???? Come on, you know you're better than that.

In a huge country, especially one that has a red hot economy, being a crown corporation, if they really wanted to make money, there's another million better ways to make fast cash.

For something as important and sensitive as a warplane, especially something this bleeding edge and requiring astronomical amount of investment and commitment, it's very very rare for a corporation to "just do it". Even Uncle Sam's powerful military conglomerates don't just do it. The last thing they did was the F-20, even that was something of a sub-par product intended for poor countries. Whenever a totally new generation of plane is being designed from the ground up, it always requires the coordination of a whole nation, doesn't matter it's China, US, or USSR/Russia.

Verum said:

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That claim is just too......

If you say they make money through dealing real estate or manipulating stock prices, I might agree with you. But.......warplane?? On this scale???? Come on, you know you're better than that.

In a huge country, especially one that has a red hot economy, being a crown corporation, if they really wanted to make money, there's another million better ways to make fast cash.

For something as important and sensitive as a warplane, especially something this bleeding edge and requiring astronomical amount of investment and commitment, it's very very rare for a corporation to "just do it". Even Uncle Sam's powerful military conglomerates don't just do it. The last thing they did was the F-20, even that was something of a sub-par product intended for poor countries. Whenever a totally new generation of plane is being designed from the ground up, it always requires the coordination of a whole nation, doesn't matter it's China, US, or USSR/Russia.

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China is not the US. Sorry to tell you but the PLA has been reported to be in a whole web of businesses that have nothing to do with military defense. Hence why Huawei gets so much scrutiny by the US because the CEO is a former PLA officer and accused of being a front for the PLA. It is a fact that the PLA has businesses beyond defense yet you think there's a better way to make money. I'm sure they are doing whatever you think is better too. So why not CAC or SAC? According to your conclusions, the J-31 shouldn't exist all at. They've already done what people say was not possible. Yet there's a question to a second prototype? Odd... Is this like those that said China could never develop a 5th gen fighter and since it has, the bar has moved up? The face palm is how you can't get past that the PLA and other entities in the Chinese government make their own money with businesses that have a military and non military connection. Why is that so hard to believe? Because that doesn't happen in the US? Really?

vesicles said:

It is hard for me to believe that SAC is actually developing the J-31 on its own. Let's first assume that the J-312 has absolutely no backing from the govn't and the PLAAF/PLAN. .

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We have no idea just how "developed" J-31 actually is. If it is simply a preliminary technology demonstrator that is miles away from a real service aircraft, then I think it would be well within the power of SAC to finance and develop on its own.

Recall the British Aerospace also self-financed a tech demonstrator in the early 1980s as part of its bid to prove its value to the Eurofighter program. That BAE demonstrator actually looked remarkably like the eventual EF-2000. But of course it is miles away from mission capable.

chuck731 said:

We have no idea just how "developed" J-31 actually is. If it is simply a preliminary technology demonstrator that is miles away from a real service aircraft, then I think it would be well within the power of SAC to finance and develop on its own.

Recall the British Aerospace also self-financed a tech demonstrator in the early 1980s as part of its bid to prove its value to the Eurofighter program. That BAE demonstrator actually looked remarkably like the eventual EF-2000. But of course it is miles away from mission capable.

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A very good argument ... and I think we will learn more about that if and when a second prototype will be spotted.

Either way China got a very healthy stealth fighter development programs with two projects already flew and one is moving along well. Second only to the US, that's more than one can say to any other nations stealth fighter program. It's all about the program. If China (or any nation) has the means, money, scientist, engineers, and capability it will eventually succeed for a very long time.