Shenyang FC-31 / J-31 Fighter Demonstrator

thunderchief said:

J-31 is not marketed for sale . SAC is advertising J-31 as a potential future product , sort of technical demonstrator that they too could produce fifth gen fighter . There is still lots of work to be done , and lots of money to be spent .

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The point is they've already shown the desire to commit resources to the project AND advertise it, which indicates. I'm not going to say it's a done deal, but it's not completely unrealistic, per your original assertion.

Well , if you want to create "export fighter" , you do that to earn money not to lose it . If R&D costs lets say 20B $ , and you earn just 10B $ selling your product , you have a huge financial loss . In order to avoid that you would need to research market and determine are there enough concrete buyers to reasonably cover your risk - or are there potential partners who would like to participate in project and cover part of the R&D cost .

On the other hand , if PLAAF chooses to finance J-31 they will pay for R&D so SAC would not need to worry about that .

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You're making a lot of assumptions about the cost to revenue ratio of such a project. Anyways, I get the inkling we're slowly but surely treading into off-topic territory.

latenlazy said:

The point is they've already shown the desire to commit resources to the project AND advertise it, which indicates. I'm not going to say it's a done deal, but it's not completely unrealistic, per your original assertion.

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So far they committed limited resources in order to attract investors . I don't think SAC would proceed with their own money right until the completion of J-31 program . Most likely , if no investors are found , they will shelve project until better times .

latenlazy said:

You're making a lot of assumptions about the cost to revenue ratio of such a project. Anyways, I get the inkling we're slowly but surely treading into off-topic territory.

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It is hard to determine exactly how much would R&D of J-31 cost . So lots of it is assumption , but we have some similar examples like development cost of F-22 , F-35 and PAK FA ( i didn't mention J-20 because we don't have information about the cost of that project) . Also we could assume how much examples of J-31s could SAC sell to potential buyers , considering their financial means and defense needs .

thunderchief said:

So far they committed limited resources in order to attract investors . I don't think SAC would proceed with their own money right until the completion of J-31 program . Most likely , if no investors are found , they will shelve project until better times .

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That's a VERY different point from asserting it's unrealistic.

It is hard to determine exactly how much would R&D of J-31 cost . So lots of it is assumption , but we have some similar examples like development cost of F-22 , F-35 and PAK FA ( i didn't mention J-20 because we don't have information about the cost of that project) . Also we could assume how much examples of J-31s could SAC sell to potential buyers , considering their financial means and defense needs .

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Should be noted that SAC already has some sunk cost in this (from the J-xx competition). In fact, it's probably what got them to make a flying prototype. Also keep in mind that selling a fighter doesn't just generate revenue from the sale itself, but from the service business afterwards.

Anyways, I'm pretty sure the only way to continue this particular discussion is if we begin speculating about specific parameters, which I don't think makes for a very fruitful discussion.

latenlazy said:

That's a VERY different point from asserting it's unrealistic.

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Let me clarify my point : I think it is unrealistic that J-31 project could be completed without Chinese government money . SAC would not risk their own funds , and I don't see foreign partners with enough cash to fund development .

latenlazy said:

Should be noted that SAC already has some sunk cost in this (from the J-xx competition). In fact, it's probably what got them to make a flying prototype.

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Yes , but since by all accounts J-20 won that competition , SAC already accumulated financial losses on this project and I don't think they would want to risk more .

Deino said:

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A pair of flat nozzles and this bird is easily the most sleek and gracious aircraft ever produced..

thunderchief said:

Let me clarify my point : I think it is unrealistic that J-31 project could be completed without Chinese government money . SAC would not risk their own funds , and I don't see foreign partners with enough cash to fund development .

Yes , but since by all accounts J-20 won that competition , SAC already accumulated financial losses on this project and I don't think they would want to risk more .

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If that were the case they wouldn't have built a flying prototype. That they are implies that they are willing to incur some more risk.

latenlazy said:

If that were the case they wouldn't have built a flying prototype. That they are implies that they are willing to incur some more risk.

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You don't know how far this prototype is from a real serviceable fighter. A flyable demo with none of the refinements and equipments of an operational aircraft could be built for just a few percent of the costs of a actual service fighter. See BAe eurofighter proof of concept demo from 1980s.

chuck731 said:

You don't know how far this prototype is from a real serviceable fighter. A flyable demo with none of the refinements and equipments of an operational aircraft could be built for just a few percent of the costs of a actual service fighter. See BAe eurofighter proof of concept demo from 1980s.

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I'm not disputing that. I'm simply pointing out that the commitment is being made when you decide to fly a prototype even after losing out on the competition. After all, the J-31 wasn't THE fighter for SAC's J-XX submission. The original design had to be modified and downsized into the J-31 we see today.

latenlazy said:

I'm not disputing that. I'm simply pointing out that the commitment is being made when you decide to fly a prototype even after losing out on the competition. After all, the J-31 wasn't THE fighter for SAC's J-XX submission. The original design had to be modified and downsized into the J-31 we see today.

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The fact that the J-31 is flying again, is proof enough that AVIC/Shenyang are serious about getting this bird into the fleet, it is a novel aircraft bearing a strong resemblance to the Raptor, although slightly smaller, it looks good, and if it flys as good as it looks, it has a very strong chance of making it into production, but Pak/Fa is still the exotic beauty of the bunch, so taking just slight exception to you Andy, but I'm always happy when a fellow birdwatcher OOOHHHs and AAAHHHs, you are right lad the J-31 is a beauty. brat