Shenyang FC-31 / J-31 Fighter Demonstrator

Idea of "export fighter" (without PLAAF funding) is almost completely unrealistic . What other country would finance its development ? China has precious few clients for its airplanes . Neither of them is rich . In fact , they could barely afford to buy anything other then J-7 . Now you want them to finance development of 5th gen fighter ?

thunderchief said:

Idea of "export fighter" (without PLAAF funding) is almost completely unrealistic . What other country would finance its development ? China has precious few clients for its airplanes . Neither of them is rich . In fact , they could barely afford to buy anything other then J-7 . Now you want them to finance development of 5th gen fighter ?

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Don't undersell the emergent markets. Africa is starting to display some real growth potential. Plus there are going to be potential buyers in the Middle East, Eastern Europe, Latin America, and Southeast Asia.

latenlazy said:

Don't undersell the emergent markets. Africa is starting to display some real growth potential. Plus there are going to be potential buyers in Latin America and Southeast Asia.

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Yeah, consider that Russia managed to sell some relatively high end flankers and Migs (for their time) off to some african countries, combined with rising african (as well as latin american, some SEA) economies, J-31 could potentially have a market. But they probably will require relatively less high end capabilities, so some avionics and datalinking might be stripped for those markets.

Bltizo said:

Yeah, consider that Russia managed to sell some relatively high end flankers and Migs (for their time) off to some african countries, combined with rising african (as well as latin american, some SEA) economies, J-31 could potentially have a market. But they probably will require relatively less high end capabilities, so some avionics and datalinking might be stripped for those markets.

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I later inserted Eastern Europe too, which is something none of us should have overlooked. Not all of them will get along with Russia, so China could offer many of them an important alternative to Russian hardware.

thunderchief said:

Idea of "export fighter" (without PLAAF funding) is almost completely unrealistic . What other country would finance its development ? China has precious few clients for its airplanes . Neither of them is rich . In fact , they could barely afford to buy anything other then J-7 . Now you want them to finance development of 5th gen fighter ?

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The Gulf States could buy some, for political purposes (but they most likely wouldn't put up the funding).

Well... I can see some potential customers - Malaysia, Indonesia, Iran, Syria... and of course the infamous North Korea who might ask that aircraft to be given free or near to free to them. Also at this time, only US is selling their F-35 and not many countries could actually buy them, in a matter of times, I believe Russia will be offering their T-50 to the market. So I am seeing quite a big demand for the stealth aircrafts.

any countries seeking to purchase J-31,are surely going seek technological transfer,particular the blue print for the airframe ,RAM material.even her radar.will China willing to cede to there demand?
I don't think China will be so willing this time.

hardware said:

any countries seeking to purchase J-31,are surely going seek technological transfer,particular the blue print for the airframe ,RAM material.even her radar.will China willing to cede to there demand?
I don't think China will be so willing this time.

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How did you come to this conclusion? Many countries buy aircraft without requiring technological transfer, what makes you so sure potential J-31 customers will require it?

latenlazy said:

Don't undersell the emergent markets. Africa is starting to display some real growth potential. Plus there are going to be potential buyers in the Middle East, Eastern Europe, Latin America, and Southeast Asia.

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Bltizo said:

Yeah, consider that Russia managed to sell some relatively high end flankers and Migs (for their time) off to some african countries, combined with rising african (as well as latin american, some SEA) economies, J-31 could potentially have a market. But they probably will require relatively less high end capabilities, so some avionics and datalinking might be stripped for those markets.

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Russia managed to sell some Su-30s to Algeria and few to Uganda . That's about it in the recent time . Rich ME countries are firmly in American camp , and those who are not are too poor to finance development of the fifth gen fighter . At best , they could buy few examples of finished & tested fighter , hardly enough to cover costs .

latenlazy said:

I later inserted Eastern Europe too, which is something none of us should have overlooked. Not all of them will get along with Russia, so China could offer many of them an important alternative to Russian hardware.

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Most of the Eastern European countries are in NATO now , and even if they didn't , they are currently in economic troubles with vastly reduced military spending (and cutting air forces too ) .

Skywatcher said:

I agree. Though we probably should have at least heard a little something about the CAC bid for the PLAAF "light/medium" 5th generation fighter by now (even just Internet chatter).

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The PLAAF light/medium 5th generation fighter is once again the J-31. Developing a stealth fighter costs billions of dollars and hundreds of engineers and technicians have to worked on it. Do you think that either SAC or CAC have that kind of resources just laying around ? I think that CAC will be focussed to get the J-20 right and the SAC will be focussed to getting the J-31 right. On top of that they both have other obligations like the J-10, J-10B and the JF-17 for the CAC and J-11B, J-15 and J-16 for the SAC and both of them also have varius drone projects in the works as well.

So i'm skeptical that China is building a third stealth fighter in Xi'an. Their days of building JH-7's are over as that plane will be replaced with the much more capable J-16. From now on Xi'an's main focus will, be getting the Y-20 plane right. And i'm skeptikal about other rumored projects like a single engine J-20, twin engined semi stealth J-10C or a navalized J-10 and the J-18 "Red Eagle" whatever that plane is suppose to be. If all these planes would to be developed it will costs tens of billions of dollars and requires thousands of engineers and technicians to work on these projects. Does China have that kind of resources to spare in its aerospace industry on top of the commitments mentioned above ? And why would they expense those resources on planes they don't need ? The hi lo mix of J-11 and J-10 and now their upgraded variants will do fine for China untill their stealth fighters comes in to play. So they don't need all those other planes that are mentioned on the internet.

I believe that we won't be seeing any more new (fixed wing) planes coming out of China for many years to come. Except in the field of helicopters which is a area in China's aerospace industry that's still somewhat underdeveloped compared to the rest. In the next few years we might see and upgraded and perhabs modified JF-17, but that plane is primarily for the benefit of Pakistan and the export markets. And expect new drones projects too. But i don't think that their will be too many fixed wing projects in the years to come as China already has a hand full on their existing projects.

Come to think of it can the SAC spend that much resources on the J-31 project without official censure ?

As for the export markets, i think only the J-31 will be offered to foreign customers and not the J-20 like in the US that only offers F-35 and not F-22 for export. And if a few customers wants ToT on the J-31 then they will have to pay for it.