Shenyang FC-31 / J-31 Fighter Demonstrator

Pakistan. Pure and simple Pakistan. They were promised Gen 5 by China.to compete with Indian T50 and Rafales. Iraq will.try for the T50 but is still more likely to end up with a coin based air force. Iran is under sanctions and not likely to slip them unless there is miracle. Syria is in the Russian camp but the current civil war is any ones guess. North Korea is penny less and even if the Kim clan had the cash is also sanctioned only the Iranians are likely to sell stealth to them. Venezuela is another option but I figure Russian T50 for them as Chavez placed them deeply in the Russian orbit. Cuba is dirt poor and only has sugarcane to barter with so they are out, Argentina is scrambling for cash. Most everyone else who has the cash are already on F35 or T50 or just going to upgrade their existing fleets to Gen 4.5 plus.

thunderchief said:

Russia managed to sell some Su-30s to Algeria and few to Uganda . That's about it in the recent time . Rich ME countries are firmly in American camp , and those who are not are too poor to finance development of the fifth gen fighter . At best , they could buy few examples of finished & tested fighter , hardly enough to cover costs .

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Well, it's not like an export J-31 would be on sale anytime in the near future anyways. There's time for those markets to mature.

Most of the Eastern European countries are in NATO now , and even if they didn't , they are currently in economic troubles with vastly reduced military spending (and cutting air forces too ) .

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Being in NATO doesn't necessarily keep them from buying Chinese hardware. Neither Eastern Europe nor the Middle East are locked into the military hardware of other countries.

thunderchief said:

Idea of "export fighter" (without PLAAF funding) is almost completely unrealistic . What other country would finance its development ? China has precious few clients for its airplanes . Neither of them is rich . In fact , they could barely afford to buy anything other then J-7 . Now you want them to finance development of 5th gen fighter ?

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Get your fact straight. PLA never bought a single JF-17.

latenlazy said:

Don't undersell the emergent markets. Africa is starting to display some real growth potential. Plus there are going to be potential buyers in the Middle East, Eastern Europe, Latin America, and Southeast Asia.

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I think ME is out.. those Arab states are pretty much all about American made weaponry because of concessions and decades or political maneuvering involved. I can see certain countries there that MAY potentially be China's clients like Iran, Syria (assuming it's still around) BUT again politics will rule at the end of the day. If the world changes and the US policies toward some of this countries are less hostile, China can definitely make inroads in their weapons export.

Their best bet are still Pakistan, South America and certain countries in Africa and perhaps Indonesia or Thailand. They are mainly emerging markets and their economies should grow pretty healthy in the coming decades. They are also not exactly surrounded by their best buddies either. At best luke warm associates.

If China play their cards right their MIC should have HUGE export potential in the future. Some of these countries are even predicted to surpassed many European countries in their GDP in the coming decades.

The middle east was American export territory for fighters but today its European canard fighters. Eurofighter, grippen and rafale. along with F35, F16E and the F15SE dominate. Turkey and Isreal are the only two who would break the mold but the Turks are involved in there own development program and part of the JSF.
South American air forces are unlikely. Brazil is the only one set to expand Argentina is defanged by the current government
and most of the rest just sent interested in a real air force. Most of the air power in the Americas is centered around the USA and Canada. The rest is more a token force or coin types.

TerraN_EmpirE said:

The middle east was American export territory for fighters but today its European canard fighters. Eurofighter, grippen and rafale. along with F35, F16E and the F15SE dominate. Turkey and Isreal are the only two who would break the mold but the Turks are involved in there own development program and part of the JSF.
South American air forces are unlikely. Brazil is the only one set to expand Argentina is defanged by the current government
and most of the rest just sent interested in a real air force. Most of the air power in the Americas is centered around the USA and Canada. The rest is more a token force or coin types.

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Hard to say what could happen to any region in a few years. Being able make sales to a large number of token forces can still be very profitable.

With regards to Turkey, Malaysia, Indonesia, etc, I suspect that China is gambling these country's forays into developing their own 5th generation platforms won't get very far, which will then prompt them to start looking for alternatives.

Yes, I believe some of the Southeast Asian countries might be interested in the AFC, being a cheaper alternative to the American's F-35 and most probably cheaper than the Russian's T-50.

Malaysia and Indonesia both fly Russian aircrafts now and I don't think they will reject the AFC if the aircraft is good enough and serve their needs, especially Indonesia who had gotten quite a number of military hardware from China in the past. Vietnam and Philippines are out of the question because they do not have that good a relationship with China right now (especially Philippines), Singapore can be ruled out too, because Singapore seemed only interested in getting their planes from US and maybe Europe... and is already looking into getting the F-35.

Another country that might be interested would be Thailand, her current air force fleet is really not that credible and they do have the economic capability to upgrade their air force. The other one (although unlikely) is Mynamar... Mynamar had been China's ally for some time now, she might not be economically well off at the present, but she had oil and potential of growing up pretty well, so in future she might be looking to upgrade her fleet too, and if she didn't fall into the western embrace, then she might be looking to China and Russia to supply her with advance fighters... the AFC might be an attractive alternative if the price is right.

Traditional ally like Pakistan would surely be one of the first to have a look at the AFC... I think chances are high for Pakistan to get it, because seriously JF-17 might not meet the requirement for too long if the Indians started flying the T-50 and Rafale.

Other nations like those in the latin America that are against US, will also be interested in this aircraft.

Yes... although Iran being sanctioned will not receive the aircraft (not easily) but, China could always sell the tech and not the entire aircraft if Iran is interested, and let Iran build their own stealth aircraft with the new technology, even with a couple of Chinese engineers as advisors.

latenlazy said:

Well, it's not like an export J-31 would be on sale anytime in the near future anyways. There's time for those markets to mature.

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To repeat myself , I'm talking about development costs . Some of these countries may buy completed and tested J-31s in future , but somebody has to fork cash to build that plane in the first place

latenlazy said:

Being in NATO doesn't necessarily keep them from buying Chinese hardware. Neither Eastern Europe nor the Middle East are locked into the military hardware of other countries.

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Well ... In real world those countries were and are pressured to get rid of their old Soviet weapons , or to pay hefty sums to bring them to NATO standards (communication equipment mostly ) . With dwindling budgets , there is a very small chance they would be allowed to buy Chinese planes and almost non-existent chance they would finance development of Chinese plane .

vincent said:

Get your fact straight. PLA never bought a single JF-17.

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JF-17 was financed jointly by Pakistan and China . Current economic situation in Pakistan is getting worse , so don't expect that they would finance J-31 . Even production of JF-17 (relatively cheap fourth gen fighter ) may become economic loss for them ,as they are still unable to find foreign customers for it .

thunderchief said:

To repeat myself , I'm talking about development costs . Some of these countries may buy completed and tested J-31s in future , but somebody has to fork cash to build that plane in the first place

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Would make more sense to use development cost as a reason the J-31 isn't happening if it weren't being flown and marketed yano . (Especially if recent rumours that the J-31 is going to receive PLA funding is true).

Well ... In real world those countries were and are pressured to get rid of their old Soviet weapons , or to pay hefty sums to bring them to NATO standards (communication equipment mostly ) . With dwindling budgets , there is a very small chance they would be allowed to buy Chinese planes and almost non-existent chance they would finance development of Chinese plane .
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Whoever said anything about them financing it.

latenlazy said:

Would make more sense to use development cost as a reason the J-31 isn't happening if it weren't being flown and marketed yano . (Especially if recent rumours that the J-31 is going to receive PLA funding is true).

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J-31 is not marketed for sale . SAC is advertising J-31 as a potential future product , sort of technical demonstrator that they too could produce fifth gen fighter . There is still lots of work to be done , and lots of money to be spent .

latenlazy said:

Whoever said anything about them financing it.

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Well , if you want to create "export fighter" , you do that to earn money not to lose it . If R&D costs lets say 20B $ , and you earn just 10B $ selling your product , you have a huge financial loss . In order to avoid that you would need to research market and determine are there enough concrete buyers to reasonably cover your risk - or are there potential partners who would like to participate in project and cover part of the R&D cost .

On the other hand , if PLAAF chooses to finance J-31 they will pay for R&D so SAC would not need to worry about that .