Shenyang FC-31 / J-31 Fighter Demonstrator

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mr.bean

Junior Member
Well, among all the fighters that PLAAF currently has and will be having in the next 5 years, J-10b is still the top-of-the-line fighter. I don't see China thinking about exporting J-10b until any 5th gen fighter gets deployed. J-10A for export? perhaps when J-10b comes on line. Definitely not J-10b in the next 5-8 years, IMO.

About China's export being better than what they had. That used to be the case because China was looking for approval internationally and wanted to show to the world that what they had was not as bad as people thought. So they went out of their ways to accommodate their clients. China no longer needs that kind of approval and China has the confidence to say to their potential clients "sorry dude, we will keep the best to ourselves. Don't like it? too bad!"

you make good points and you maybe right about this. but I just want to remind folks that Pakistan is not just a regular country or export market to china. there is a reason why china & Pakistan still constantly refer the other as ''brothers'' even to this day. Pakistan to china is like Israel is to the united states. if india's airforce has new fighters like the Rafael and the T-50 then china would even GIVE the PAF fighters to counter that threat even if they can't afford it. the security of Pakistan is more important than a few billion dollars in exports.
 

Player99

Junior Member
you make good points and you maybe right about this. but I just want to remind folks that Pakistan is not just a regular country or export market to china. there is a reason why china & Pakistan still constantly refer the other as ''brothers'' even to this day. Pakistan to china is like Israel is to the united states. if india's airforce has new fighters like the Rafael and the T-50 then china would even GIVE the PAF fighters to counter that threat even if they can't afford it. the security of Pakistan is more important than a few billion dollars in exports.

I tend to agree with you. In your said situation, it would not be between Pakistani airforce and CAC or SAC, but between the central governments of the two countries...

Long long ago, there was this president of the United States. He decided that to make friends with China was vitally important. So he sent his wise Secretary of State to China for secret talks. The secretary came to China, secretely through a small country, called Pakistan. Then the American president himself came to China, too. China thereafter was relieved of much of a massive sense of insecurity and fatal threats... Over the years, China had given countless amount of material support, including its people's lives, to North Korea and North Vietnam. Yet these two have caused China numerous problems. China hasn't given Pakistan nearly as much, yet it got itself a much reliable friend...
 

thunderchief

Senior Member
you make good points and you maybe right about this. but I just want to remind folks that Pakistan is not just a regular country or export market to china. there is a reason why china & Pakistan still constantly refer the other as ''brothers'' even to this day. Pakistan to china is like Israel is to the united states. if india's airforce has new fighters like the Rafael and the T-50 then china would even GIVE the PAF fighters to counter that threat even if they can't afford it. the security of Pakistan is more important than a few billion dollars in exports.

Well , not exactly . Powerful Israeli lobby basically controls US foreign policy . There is no such Pakistani lobby in China . Also , Pakistan was always pivoting between US and China . If we look what weapons China did export so far in Pakistan , these were mostly non-critical systems like J-6 and J-7 (now JF-17 ) , so even if the American "advisers" get hold of them they would not benefit much . Therefore , Pakistan may eventually get J-10B , but only when China moves to something better ( J-20 , J-31 etc ... )
 

rhino123

Pencil Pusher
VIP Professional
you make good points and you maybe right about this. but I just want to remind folks that Pakistan is not just a regular country or export market to china. there is a reason why china & Pakistan still constantly refer the other as ''brothers'' even to this day. Pakistan to china is like Israel is to the united states. if india's airforce has new fighters like the Rafael and the T-50 then china would even GIVE the PAF fighters to counter that threat even if they can't afford it. the security of Pakistan is more important than a few billion dollars in exports.

Sooo... what is the best plane Israel had now? F16? F15?

Presently the best planes in US arsenal (actually for the past decade or so), was the F22 and recently F35 too. So I am not seeing Israelis having the best thing in US arsenal.

True the Israelis had very good and effective weapons from US, but I don't think they got it cheaper than Singapore getting our F15SG from US, and frankly, I don't think Singapore matters all that much to US.

My point is if Pakistan to China is like Israel to United States, then, yeah, Pakistan will still not receive the best from China.

As to China using Pakistan to counter India, then China should also give North Korea all the best stuff... because China could use North Korea as a counter against South Korea and Japan. So I really don't think China would wanted to just give off any fighters to anyone, be it close allies or mere acquaintance.

Another issue was... Pakistan, herself might not be interested in J-31 too. Why? In my opinion, no one would be interested in a product that the host country that designed the product was actually not using that product at all. It is different if Pakistan and China went into a join venture to develope a certain fighters just for Pakistan and China is not buying, because there are Pakistani input and this aircraft might be specifically designed to the spec of Pakistan. However if it is a pure Chinese designed aircraft without Pakistan's involvement and yet the Chinese are not interested in that design, then it might hit something in Pakistani mind... something must be wrong with that design that make the Chinese uninterested.

So it is not always one sided.
 

rhino123

Pencil Pusher
VIP Professional
I tend to agree with you. In your said situation, it would not be between Pakistani airforce and CAC or SAC, but between the central governments of the two countries...

Long long ago, there was this president of the United States. He decided that to make friends with China was vitally important. So he sent his wise Secretary of State to China for secret talks. The secretary came to China, secretely through a small country, called Pakistan. Then the American president himself came to China, too. China thereafter was relieved of much of a massive sense of insecurity and fatal threats... Over the years, China had given countless amount of material support, including its people's lives, to North Korea and North Vietnam. Yet these two have caused China numerous problems. China hasn't given Pakistan nearly as much, yet it got itself a much reliable friend...

Frankly... I am not too sure if China find Pakistan that reliable a friend either... note that there is US advisors in Pakistan, and Pakistan seemed to be friendly to US too, even allowing US troops to be stationed there. At present, China's leadership and Pakistani leadership are in great terms. If one day, the leadership changes, who was to say that Pakistan would not fall back into US embrace fully. That is why I believe China will not give the best of the stuff to Pakistan, in case such a scenario happened (and it is likely to happen too).

In my opinion as to why in the past China provided Pakistan with the J-6 and J-7 (which was actually their best at that time) was mainly because, China knew that the Western powers are actually way ahead of herself... and so there is almost nothing to lose.
 

pissybits

Junior Member
Frankly... I am not too sure if China find Pakistan that reliable a friend either... note that there is US advisors in Pakistan, and Pakistan seemed to be friendly to US too, even allowing US troops to be stationed there. At present, China's leadership and Pakistani leadership are in great terms. If one day, the leadership changes, who was to say that Pakistan would not fall back into US embrace fully. That is why I believe China will not give the best of the stuff to Pakistan, in case such a scenario happened (and it is likely to happen too).

In my opinion as to why in the past China provided Pakistan with the J-6 and J-7 (which was actually their best at that time) was mainly because, China knew that the Western powers are actually way ahead of herself... and so there is almost nothing to lose.

pakistan's relationship with the u.s. has worsened, not gotten better in frecent years. pakistan defers to the americans (like on drone strikes) simply because it does not have the wherewithal to NOT do so. think how fractured pakistan's political system is atm, without semi-good terms with the U.S., the exports that sustain pakistan's economy will lose a huge market.

why would pakistan drop its alliance with china? what good could it gain from such a move? you have to remember that the pakistan/china relationship is forged by a common interest-countering india.
 

plawolf

Lieutenant General
Well, among all the fighters that PLAAF currently has and will be having in the next 5 years, J-10b is still the top-of-the-line fighter. I don't see China thinking about exporting J-10b until any 5th gen fighter gets deployed. J-10A for export? perhaps when J-10b comes on line. Definitely not J-10b in the next 5-8 years, IMO.

About China's export being better than what they had. That used to be the case because China was looking for approval internationally and wanted to show to the world that what they had was not as bad as people thought. So they went out of their ways to accommodate their clients. China no longer needs that kind of approval and China has the confidence to say to their potential clients "sorry dude, we will keep the best to ourselves. Don't like it? too bad!"

Any J10Bs sold to Pakistan will have different radars and avionics to what China will be fielding, so the risks to security isn't that high.

I have no idea what you are talking about with the 'seeking approval' idea. The main reason Chinese companies made huge concessions that most others won't even talk about was because of how backwards China was technically. Back then, the only way to make Chinese fighters a realistic choice was to allow the integration of foreign radars, avionics and weapons onto Chinese airframes because Chinese electronics was just not good enough.

Export orders was also far more important back then because of how poor China was, and every dollar earned in exports was a pretty big deal.

However, even then, China still maintained its principles and turned down the Iranians when they wanted the J8II.

However, because the J8 was considered the top fighter, CAC was allowed to export J7 models that were better than what the PLAAF was fielding. The F7PG with its two piece canopy and double delta wing was first exported to Pakistan before being fielded by the PLAAF as the J7G.

With the J20 in flight testing, I see the J10B as being in a similar position as the J7G in that it may well be exported before the PLAAF gets them.

China won't be pimping the J10B openly on the international market anytime soon, but I think for Pakistan, an exception can be made. There has been far too much talk from highly placed named sources within the PAF for far too long for it all to be hot air.

I think originally, the PAF was supposed to have gotten the J10A years ago, but they delayed that order when they got word of the J10B.

The J10B itself may even have been delayed as a result of suggestions made by PAF pilots based on their experiences with the F16Blk52 and or M2K-9s.

Pakistan only has a developing aircraft production industry, but its pilots have first hand experience with some of the best fighters in the world from PAF service, and also from being loaned out to Gulf states like the UEA, so their suggestions would carry a lot of weight and it would be well worth China's while to take what they say onboard. I think CAC already learnt how useful such advice and suggestions can be from the JF17 project, and as such, I would not all be surprised if they continued that understanding with the J10B.
 

SinoSoldier

Colonel
¦^��: Shenyang J-31 Fighter

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