Shenyang FC-31 / J-31 Fighter Demonstrator

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plawolf

Lieutenant General
Will Pakistan be interested in such a fighter? I don't think J-20 will be available for export, and India will get her 5th gen from Russia in a few years and it could really draw a difference between the air force of the two nations.

Then again if Pak shown interest in stealth fighter they would probably want to input opinion right from the start and designed it according to their own requirements.

Well, if Pakistan get onboard this early in the development stage, they should be able to get many of their own requirements in, especially since the J31 hasn't picked up any official PLA support, and SAC would be desperate to secure outside funding to help complete the project, so would be much more willing to make changes to accommodate the PAF's needs.

However, no official PLA support I a double edged sword because without it, there is no real guarantee that the J31 will ever enter service. If Pakistan wants to get onboard, the first thing they need to do is work out what their optimal invesmtnet would be. If they just invest a little, it might not be enough to finish the programme and they might not get anything out of it. But in order to maximise the chances that the project is successful would require a massive cash investment, and even then there will still be an element of risk, and as with most programmes these days, what the inital cost estimates are may be very different to what the project actually costs. Same goes for estimate unite costs.

Part of the reason Pakistan demanded that China also commit to a FC1/JF17 buy was to guarantee that the programme came to fruition and also to make sure that Pakistan won't be left to get the tab itself if costs spiral. I don't think Pakistan will get into the J31 unless they get a similar commitment from the PLA with the J31. Maybe even such a commitment might not be enough since China seemed to have gone back on its word wrt PLAAF JF17 purchases. Pakistan isn't making a stink because of how well the JF17 programme has gone, but that does not mean they would have forgotten about that when it comes to negociating future deals.

All in all, I think that while the PAF is massively interested in a J31 like fighter, the programme is just too high risk and high cost right now for them to commit to it. Add in the fact that the PAF has never worked with SAC before, and SAC's less than stellar reputation, I just cannot see the PAF getting onboard without a major development like official PLA backing for the project.

In a way, the J31 is as good as it is likely to get for PAF to get onboard a 5th gen fighter programme. Pakistan simply lacks he financial and technical muscle to pursue a 5th gen design by themselves, and timeframe wise, if all goes well, the J31 could enter service in time to counter IAF PAK-FAs. However, the costs and risks are just too high for the PAF, if the J31 was a CAC project, the PAF might risk it, but it being a SAC bird is just too much imo.
 
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timepass

Brigadier
Well, if Pakistan get onboard this early in the development stage, they should be able to get many of their own requirements in, especially since the J31 hasn't picked up any official PLA support, and SAC would be desperate to secure outside funding to help complete the project, so would be much more willing to make changes to accommodate the PAF's needs.

However, no official PLA support I a double edged sword because without it, there is no real guarantee that the J31 will ever enter service. If Pakistan wants to get onboard, the first thing they need to do is work out what their optimal invesmtnet would be. If they just invest a little, it might not be enough to finish the programme and they might not get anything out of it. But in order to maximise the chances that the project is successful would require a massive cash investment, and even then there will still be an element of risk, and as with most programmes these days, what the inital cost estimates are may be very different to what the project actually costs. Same goes for estimate unite costs.

Part of the reason Pakistan demanded that China also commit to a FC1/JF17 buy was to guarantee that the programme came to fruition and also to make sure that Pakistan won't be left to get the tab itself if costs spiral. I don't think Pakistan will get into the J31 unless they get a similar commitment from the PLA with the J31. Maybe even such a commitment might not be enough since China seemed to have gone back on its word wrt PLAAF JF17 purchases. Pakistan isn't making a stink because of how well the JF17 programme has gone, but that does not mean they would have forgotten about that when it comes to negociating future deals.

All in all, I think that while the PAF is massively interested in a J31 like fighter, the programme is just too high risk and high cost right now for them to commit to it. Add in the fact that the PAF has never worked with SAC before, and SAC's less than stellar reputation, I just cannot see the PAF getting onboard without a major development like official PLA backing for the project.

In a way, the J31 is as good as it is likely to get for PAF to get onboard a 5th gen fighter programme. Pakistan simply lacks he financial and technical muscle to pursue a 5th gen design by themselves, and timeframe wise, if all goes well, the J31 could enter service in time to counter IAF PAK-FAs. However, the costs and risks are just too high for the PAF, if the J31 was a CAC project, the PAF might risk it, but it being a SAC bird is just too much imo.

Well for the time being PAF is anxiously waiting for J10B (FC-20) & their main priority is to induct them ASAP to counter India's SU30MKI & Rafale though Rafale still it is 4-5 years away to become operational.

Hence, PAF has ample time to wait for the maturity of this project (J31).
 

Lion

Senior Member
Shenyang is a huge company. So huge it can almost goes on its own without any PLA backing and funding. And not to mention is rich history of it hierarchy who even rub shoulder with Maos and those founder of PRC.

Shenyang may try to take risk and invest in this project on its own to win any export order. Currently, the choice of 5th gen fighter on market is very limited and pricey. I believe there will be market for this bird provided Shenyang can balance of its capabilities and price.
 
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vesicles

Colonel
Well for the time being PAF is anxiously waiting for J10B (FC-20) & their main priority is to induct them ASAP to counter India's SU30MKI & Rafale though Rafale still it is 4-5 years away to become operational.

Hence, PAF has ample time to wait for the maturity of this project (J31).

J10B? Did the PLA ever say anything about exporting J10? Why would the PLA export a fighter that will be their own backbone fighter for the next decade? That's not how the PLA does things...
 

hardware

Banned Idiot
据超级大本营军事获得相关消息称,“鹘鹰”战斗机已经进行了相关改进型号的研制,改进型号的具体情况有望于明年公开。


report a redesign version will test flight next year.prototype no.2?
 

plawolf

Lieutenant General
J10B? Did the PLA ever say anything about exporting J10? Why would the PLA export a fighter that will be their own backbone fighter for the next decade? That's not how the PLA does things...

The J7 was the PLAAF's backbone fighter, yet that was widely exported, and often the export models were superior to what the PLAAF was using at the time.

China does not like exporting its top end fighter, but that isn't the J10 any more.
 

Air Force Brat

Brigadier
Super Moderator
据超级大本营军事获得相关消息称,“鹘鹰”战斗机已经进行了相关改进型号的研制,改进型号的具体情况有望于明年公开。


report a redesign version will test flight next year.prototype no.2?

Which could likely be with a hook and upgraded gear etc for carrier operations and new engines, I seriously doubt China will have much luck exporting this bird with the Russian engines, and I would guess its rather underpowered. I'm glad to see them flying it again, it really does seem that the funding is leaching away from China's aviation assets and that they are moving forward with more Naval assets. This is going to be a very attractive airplane once the gear is up, and it looks more like what we would expect a fifth gen to look like, but the engines are definitely in line for an upgrade, likely to at least WS-10s? brat
 

vesicles

Colonel
The J7 was the PLAAF's backbone fighter, yet that was widely exported, and often the export models were superior to what the PLAAF was using at the time.

China does not like exporting its top end fighter, but that isn't the J10 any more.

Well, among all the fighters that PLAAF currently has and will be having in the next 5 years, J-10b is still the top-of-the-line fighter. I don't see China thinking about exporting J-10b until any 5th gen fighter gets deployed. J-10A for export? perhaps when J-10b comes on line. Definitely not J-10b in the next 5-8 years, IMO.

About China's export being better than what they had. That used to be the case because China was looking for approval internationally and wanted to show to the world that what they had was not as bad as people thought. So they went out of their ways to accommodate their clients. China no longer needs that kind of approval and China has the confidence to say to their potential clients "sorry dude, we will keep the best to ourselves. Don't like it? too bad!"
 

Blackstone

Brigadier
Well, among all the fighters that PLAAF currently has and will be having in the next 5 years, J-10b is still the top-of-the-line fighter. I don't see China thinking about exporting J-10b until any 5th gen fighter gets deployed. J-10A for export? perhaps when J-10b comes on line. Definitely not J-10b in the next 5-8 years, IMO.

About China's export being better than what they had. That used to be the case because China was looking for approval internationally and wanted to show to the world that what they had was not as bad as people thought. So they went out of their ways to accommodate their clients. China no longer needs that kind of approval and China has the confidence to say to their potential clients "sorry dude, we will keep the best to ourselves. Don't like it? too bad!"

On the other hand, there are talks of exporting J-10Bs to Pakistan.
 
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