Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO) and Global South strategic cooperation

Maikeru

Maikeru

Major
Registered Member
tphuang said:
Does Turkey join this alliance?

If we look at things from the Chinese perspective. What did they bring to the table?
First, I think they need to bring Saudi security. Iran and Russia just signed Su-35 deal yesterday. this is right when Saudi FM visited Russia and re-affirmed OPEC+ ties. Made not a lot of sense at the time given the Saudi/Iran relationship. Now, it makes sense if China has also guaranteed security to Saudi Arabia through more regional support + arm sales. We can guess what that is: FC-31, KJ-500, 052D, CABs, HQ-9s, submarines, Ballistic missiles. And probably guarantee that if Iran goes nuclear, China will hep Saudi goes nuclear also.

For Iran, China can promise more financial/technological support if Iran stays off nuclear weapons and proxy wars.

For rest of Arab countries, China already know has friendly gov't in UAE where it sells a bunch of weapons, Iraq where it dominates the oil field, Oman where it buys most of their oil export, Egypt where it's been selling weapons, Algeria where it's been selling weapons.

All around, it just needs to do more of everything. And get these countries to trade in RMB as much as possible. Get them included into BRICS and SCO. Bring along Turkey if they are not too demanding. Sell Turkey weapons.

Keep in mind that the Ukraine conflict has stripped bare many of the weapon storage of Western countries. Russian weapons have been exposed. China is the only one able to deliver weapons in timely manner now. It's China's time to gain more influence over energy trading.
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Just the petit bijou little problemette of Turkey being in NATO there.
 
R

resistance

Junior Member
Registered Member
tphuang said:
All around, it just needs to do more of everything. And get these countries to trade in RMB as much as possible. Get them included into BRICS and SCO. Bring along Turkey if they are not too demanding. Sell Turkey weapons.
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I don't think bringing turkey is a wise decision. First china will lose all benefits with Greece, EU members that has veto anti china decision in EU body.
Second, turkey always antagonize Chinese security in xinjiang and Iran, trying to take sunni leadership away from Saudi Arabia. So even china is ok with turkey in sco, Iran and Saudis won't.
Last, turkey is very useful strategic location for NATO and Russia, but not so much for china compare to Iran, Egypt and Greece.
 
L

luminary

Senior Member
Registered Member
resistance said:
I don't think bringing turkey is a wise decision. First china will lose all benefits with Greece, EU members that has veto anti china decision in EU body.
Second, turkey always antagonize Chinese security in xinjiang and Iran, trying to take sunni leadership away from Saudi Arabia. So even china is ok with turkey in sco, Iran and Saudis won't.
Last, turkey is very useful strategic location for NATO and Russia, but not so much for china compare to Iran, Egypt and Greece.
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That's the point. If Turkiye joins SCO then what will Greece do? It will demand to join SCO as well, of course. And soon after, the rest of the Balkan states will wish to join too. Then perhaps after that, Germany and the rest of the EU.

China is a fair merchant to all countries, it does not unduly favor any country. Everybody understands this, nobody expect her to be exclusive. This is no defense pact. There is no zero-sum "giving up", no bloc formation. All countries will have a place, where China will negotiate with them on favorable terms. In fact, these local rivalries is what will propel their relations with China. We cannot let them become complacent and falter like Iran did.

Turkiye makes loud noise now. Strong economic and military ties will make it obedient without firing a single shot. Pry it away from NATO, then you can deescalate tensions and control Russia. From multiple fronts, cut off NATO's arms and encircle them. You are right that it is a good strategic location- to penetrate the ports and markets of EU and Russia. Why would China not be interested?
 
M

Minm

Junior Member
Registered Member
resistance said:
I don't think bringing turkey is a wise decision. First china will lose all benefits with Greece, EU members that has veto anti china decision in EU body.
Second, turkey always antagonize Chinese security in xinjiang and Iran, trying to take sunni leadership away from Saudi Arabia. So even china is ok with turkey in sco, Iran and Saudis won't.
Last, turkey is very useful strategic location for NATO and Russia, but not so much for china compare to Iran, Egypt and Greece.
Click to expand...
Turkey is in a customs union with the EU, which is why the majority of their trade is with Europe. By investing in West Asia and creating more regional West Asian and China focused trade, China can pull Turkey away from Europe. But security arrangements with turkey can only come after their economic dependencies are fixed
 
R

resistance

Junior Member
Registered Member
luminary said:
That's the point. If Turkiye joins SCO then what will Greece do? It will demand to join SCO as well, of course. And soon after, the rest of the Balkan states will wish to join too. Then perhaps after that, Germany and the rest of the EU.

China is a fair merchant to all countries, it does not unduly favor any country. Everybody understands this, nobody expect her to be exclusive. This is no defense pact. There is no zero-sum "giving up", no bloc formation. All countries will have a place, where China will negotiate with them on favorable terms. In fact, these local rivalries is what will propel their relations with China. We cannot let them become complacent and falter like Iran did.

Turkiye makes loud noise now. Strong economic and military ties will make it obedient without firing a single shot. Pry it away from NATO, then you can deescalate tensions and control Russia. From multiple fronts, cut off NATO's arms and encircle them. You are right that it is a good strategic location- to penetrate the ports and markets of EU and Russia. Why would China not be interested?
Click to expand...
SCO is not trade block, it's security organization. You have to seriously think before allowing anyone to join. You don't wish enemies to sabotage security,do you?
Your statement that western countries joining is very optimistic but it's not gonna become reality.
Turkey has good stretegic location, but it's not good enough for china when consider what china gonna lose if turkey join.
 
R

resistance

Junior Member
Registered Member
Minm said:
Turkey is in a customs union with the EU, which is why the majority of their trade is with Europe. By investing in West Asia and creating more regional West Asian and China focused trade, China can pull Turkey away from Europe. But security arrangements with turkey can only come after their economic dependencies are fixed
Click to expand...
The thing is it's more harmful than benefits to china if turkey join SCO. This will push Greece or even Egypt away from china. Turkey in SCO is not gonna increse much trade with china. So just let them in brics, not SCO.
 
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