Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO) and Global South strategic cooperation

tphuang said:

I just explained why Iran is not a good fit for China. That's why they are a transactional friend. Nothing more. China has real friends like Pakistan, Russia, much of southeast asia, Bangladesh, central asia and many african countries.

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I don't think the Chinese government looks at its foreign policy the way you think they do.

Iran is strategically important because it is one of the enemies of the American alliance. This is the classic 合纵连横 strategy to oppose a hegemony.

By supporting both Russia and Iran, China is ensuring that those two countries have the ability to fight back against US coercion, and thus tie up American resources in those arenas when they would have been focused on China otherwise. To put it more bluntly, China is engaging in or will engage in proxy wars with the US via those two countries.

The strategic overview is actually quite clear. While the US is rallying its vassals to focus down China, China is convincing all the other countries that have been living under American oppression to stand up and fight back. Aside from Russia and Iran, China has been busy making friends in South America.

tphuang said:

What kind of special access has Iran given to China. Just tell me?

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It hasn't, this is just the potential. Remember China voted to support American led sanctions on Iran? China has used the Iran card very successfully in negotiations with the Americans. China has always chosen to give the Americans face by supporting their sanctions and distract them from attacking China. Same story as for north Korea. But now that we're in a cold war again, there's no more benefit in supporting American sanctions.

Chinese companies were awarded some infrastructure projects in Iran like HSR and developing gas fields, but progress has been slow. Iranian bureaucracy and Chinese hesitancy to work with Iran are both to blame.

tphuang said:

What kind of innovation is Iran bringing to the table? Com'on give a few examples. Saudi Arabia is very useful because it's a perfect match for China in terms of energy for technology. Angola and Venezuela works because they provide China with energy and give very little problems.
Has Iranians really been respecting Chinese cars or are they still waiting on the Europeans?

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Iran has some space and missile technology, arms manufacturing, petrochemicals and nuclear energy and I'm sure others related to heavy industry. Obviously China is more advanced in all of these areas, but that's the opportunity. China can provide parts and machines. There's much more value added in high wage Chinese jobs in industrial equipment and components than in cheap energy, which Iran is also providing to China secretly. The opportunity is there, China just needs to dare to take it, even if it's going to offend westerners.

In terms of scientific publications, Nature ranked Iran 32nd and Saudi 30th, but of course there is a systematic bias against non western researchers. The same article will be published much better if the author is American than if he is Iranian (or Russian). If you correct for that, the quality of Iran's research is far above that of Saudi Arabia.


Also, Saudi Arabia doesn't do its own innovation, they pay foreigners to live there so their output counts as Saudi. Just look at the faculty at KAUST


Why do you care so much about "respect" for Chinese products? The main Chinese cars assembled by Iranian companies are Haima SUVs made by Iran khodro and brilliance cars made by saipa. I don't have sales numbers.


Venezuela gives very little problems? Problems like being unable to pay back their debt?

tphuang said:

Russia and China relationship works because both sides have a lot to offer and have a shared vision. NK is a decade old ally of China that will stick with China through thick and thin. Iran has no real history with China. It does not buy weapons from China. It's only working with China because it has no other choices. It will leave China the moment Europe even bats an eye at it.
I don't know why you put Cuba and Saudi Arabia in the same sentence. One is an order of magnitude more important to China than the other. But in the case of Cuba, at least it has decades of history with China due to communism and that alone deserves respect from China. Iran has no historical link with China.

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No, North Korea won't stick with China no matter what. They were very quick to seek a deal with Trump when offered. Not surprising, since China has supported sanctions on North Korea and before Trump was very reluctant to support Korea.

Did you know that there was an arms embargo on Iran, which China supported? They couldn't buy Chinese weapons. However, Iran is one of the few countries that do military exercises with China. It's always useful to get the perspective from a different military on your own tactics.

Cuba was not a friend, they were very close to the Soviet Union. I mention them because they have some competence in healthcare.

There really aren't many countries with a positive historical link with China. Korea, Vietnam and Japan plus Mongolia have a positive historic link. Russia and western Europe and America have exploited China when it was weak. But today, cooperation is strong with any country willing to cooperate.

tphuang said:

Actually, a lot of countries are now working with China because the product quality is really good. Maybe you want to take a look at Pakistan and Thailand or even Saudi Arabia and UAE. All dying to work with China and bringing in Chinese tech companies in.

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Iran also wants Chinese technology, but sometimes the sanctions cause problems. Remember Huawei's Iran business? Many Chinese companies are not willing to risk entering the Iranian market. That's something the government could work on. If you can invest in Russia, you can also invest in Iran.

I think you'll find that all of these countries want both Chinese and Western technology.

tphuang said:

I just explained why Iran is not a good fit for China. That's why they are a transactional friend. Nothing more. China has real friends like Pakistan, Russia, much of southeast asia, Bangladesh, central asia and many african countries.

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Southeast Asia is a friend to China? Is your memory this short? Anti Chinese riots in Indonesia? South China sea dispute? American bases? Bangladesh is closer to India than China. Russia and Pakistan are real friends today. Iran probably won't be China's closest ally, but it's willing and able to fight against American hegemony in its region. Imagine a future situation where the GCC flips to China and Iran flips back to the US. With Israel, Turkey and Iran on one side, who will dominate the region?

Why do you think Pakistan is so pro China? It's not just that they have a common enemy. China has fairly selflessly invested huge sums in Pakistan, just like American marshall aid to Europe. If you want others to like China, you have to put in some effort

Saudi Arabia keen to join BRICS and SCO – envoy​

Moscow’s Ambassador to the kingdom says Riyadh is looking to diversify its foreign policy

Saudi Arabia is interested in joining the BRICS group of the world’s five major developing economies, as well the Shanghai Cooperation Organization, according to Russia's Ambassador to the kingdom, Sergey Kozlov.

The five BRICS nations – Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa – currently account for more than 40% of the world’s population and nearly a quarter of global GDP. Meanwhile, the China and Russia-led Shanghai Cooperation Organization, a regional security bloc, includes major powers like India in its ranks.

“As part of the diversification of the kingdom's foreign policy, Saudi Arabia is keen to join such international associations as the SCO and BRICS,” Kozlov said on Sunday in an interview with RIA Novosti.

According to the ambassador, the possibility of the Gulf nation’s membership in the SCO is being actively discussed, while the idea of joining BRICS is under consideration.

“In general, the willingness of [our] Saudi partners to become an integrated part of these multilateral organizations, primarily the SCO, seems to have a good prospect,” Kozlov said.

Earlier this year, Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov said that “more than a dozen” nations had expressed interest in entering the BRICS group.

Algeria, Argentina, and Iran have reportedly asked to join BRICS, while Bangladesh, Egypt, the United Arab Emirates and Uruguay are members of its New Development Bank. Argentina's potential accession is supported by China according to several sources.
Bahrain, Bangladesh, Indonesia, Egypt, Mexico, Nigeria, Pakistan, Sudan, Syria, Turkey, the UAE, Venezuela and Zimbabwe have also shown interest in becoming BRICS members.

tphuang said:

Have you seen any proof that the west learning faction of Iran has dwindled or weakened? Or are they complaining every day about their relationship with China?

If Iran and KSA can resolve their thousand year long issues, that's great. But what makes you think they can do it now if they haven't done it in 1000 years?

Don't kid yourself. China's main goal is to do things that benefit itself. At present time, Iran has few friends. If it wants Chinese support, then it needs to sell its natural resources to China cheaply and use Yuan when possible and buy Chinese goods. If GCC countries are willing to do that, then that should be the minimum expectations for Iran. If Iran doesn't play ball, they can go find other friends.

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The Iran-Saudi conflict is not a thousand years old. It dates to the Iranian Islamic revolution. Before that the Shah of Iran was a close Saudi ally. If they could get on in the 60s and 70s perfectly fine then there's no reason why that can't happen today. Of course, you could expand that to the broader sectarian or ethnic conflict which has gone for centuries (or even millenia). But the same can be said about Europe, and they are all in NATO today.

You've not given any reason why China needs to view Iran with hostility. Even if the Saudi and Iranians go to war with each other, there's no reason why China needs to pick a side.

Look at the Ukraine-Russia conflict. Despite Russia having close ties to China, there is no change in China's policy in the Ukraine (including full recognition of Ukrainian sovereignty). Even Zelensky has said he is satisfied with China's neutral position - the same guy who complains when a European country doesn't send him money fast enough.

Abominable said:

Even if the Saudi and Iranians go to war with each other, there's no reason why China needs to pick a side.

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Why do you even say stuff like that?
Can't you think of something that China really, like really really, needs from Saudi Arabia??

As I have already stated, China's number one priority in Middle East for the foreseeable future is going to be that black sticky liquid. Anyone who tries to block/interrupt China from getting that liquid will automatically become China's enemy in like 1 millisecond.

This will only change when that black liquid can be completely sourced by other countries immediately. Anti-West, anti-imperialism(lol) Iran and all that is cool and nice, but if it tries any funny business with Saudi Arabia's production of the black liquid, all these things will take a backseat

Overbom said:

Why do you even say stuff like that?
Can't you think of something that China really, like really really, needs from Saudi Arabia??

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That's is oil. Iran has it too, a binding 25 years contract with China (plus infrastructure). SA has not yet.

Overbom said:

As I have already stated, China's number one priority in Middle East for the foreseeable future is going to be that black sticky liquid. Anyone who tries to block/interrupt China from getting that liquid will automatically become China's enemy in like 1 millisecond.

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Anyone blocking/interrupting Iranian oil into China is automatically China's enemy in 1 millisecond.

Overbom said:

This will only change when that black liquid can be completely sourced by other countries immediately. Anti-West, anti-imperialism(lol) Iran and all that is cool and nice, but if it tries any funny business with Saudi Arabia's production of the black liquid, all these things will take a backseat

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If anyone tries that funny business with Iran's production, everything will take a backseat.

You seem to constantly ignore the same principle of yours when the matter is about Iran. Why? Why always pitting Iran and SA as if they are either-or choice for China? That looks like the same thing that the west has been doing to China all the time, such as Russia/Ukraine a year ago and South Korea/North Korea few years ago. Every time when China gains a new friend, there is the noise about China must dump a "non-worthy" old friend, such as NK, Russia and now Iran. I don't believe these are coincidences repeating so many times and so conveniently at the right moment.

There seems to be some fundamental misreadings on the dynamics of Middle East geopolitics and the goal of China’s ME foreign policy that I feel like it’s necessary to clear the air. A decision by China to disproportionately favour the GCC over Iran and alienate the latter partnership would be, to put it frankly, catastrophic for Chinese foreign policy objectives in the Middle East.

The Iran-China Relationship
It’s important to keep in mind that the heart of contemporary Chinese foreign policy is the promotion of the BRI and the fundamental core impetus of the BRI is not economic development but national security. China’s maritime east, its main route of access to the rest of the world, is under perennial threat of blockade from adversarial activation of the first island chain. This is the background under which the OBOR was uncoincidentally formulated shortly after the announcement of the Obama-era "Pivot to Asia,” because the land route networks that the BRI would establish from Xinjiang and Tibet into Eurasia would ensure China’s immunity from the impact of such a containment scenario. Although there is a “Maritime Silk Road” where the GCC can play a peace-time role through being an intermediary for shipping from the CPEC corridor and acting as crude oil supplier in return, it does not address the security concerns underpinning the BRI project and would only move a maritime blockade from the waters of the SCS and the Strait of Malacca to the Indian Ocean and Persian Gulf.

There are therefore two principal land routes, from Central Asia southwards to Iran and northwards to Russia. Ensuring the stability and cooperation of Central Asia to diversify access routes is therefore crucial, as elsewise, China’s Eurasia routes would be entirely dependent on Russia and at the mercy of volatile Russian leadership attitudes. Establishing an Iranian route, which was the traditional transitory path of the historical Silk Road to the West, gives China the same leverage we see right now in the Russo-Iranian competition for China’s oil import market. Furthermore, the optimal path to keeping Central Asia secure means requiring the partnership of Iran. With Iran, Pakistan and Russia on board, this China-partnered bloc would win the so-called “Great Game” over Central Asia that foreign powers like Britain, the Russian Empire and the United States have been unsuccessfully competing for since the 19th century.

Keeping Iran on board is also necessary to check Turkish and Indian influences on Central Asia, which can both be contiguously blocked from the region with Iranian cooperation. The former under the Erdogan government is a irredentist power whose historically unattainable ethno-nationalist fantasies of Turkism are now a real threat through being co-opted as the vehicle for NATO and American re-entry into Central Asia and infiltrating Xinjiang after their loss of Afghanistan. The latter would be deprived into an outsider looking in position with respect to Central Asia so long as Iran and Russia cooperate with China and Pakistan in keeping it out. This also prevents the latter from "its have your cake and eat it too" attitude of expecting to fully reaping the benefits of accessing those BRI-developed regions despite its own non-participation in BRI and its hostility towards China.

The feasibility of this Central Asian grand strategy can only be made manifest from the cooperation of the state holding Iran’s geographic position and that geographic position alone is frankly all that China really needs out of its bilateral partnership with Iran. Therefore, so long as a Sino-Iranian relationship can sufficiently secure these stated regional security concerns, in the long-term its value to China will actually be more fundamentally important than anything the GCC could provide in the current geopolitical environment, even if Iranian cooperation is a complete wash in other areas like bilateral economic ties.

The GCC-China Relationship
I think the excessive focus and cheery optimism on potential Chinese benefits of the developing GCC relationship, such as the elusive Petroyuan, have made some forget why the Saudis chose to roll out their blue carpet, fire off their 21-gun salute and have their royals greeting Xi like kin in the first place: because, from a geopolitical perspective, the Saudis (and the GCC) have gained something massive from this summit, which is that an invitation of China acts as a guaranteed catalyst for triggering the “Solomon Islands” response from the West. The lackluster state of their relationship with America following the latter’s Asian pivot has coincided with the current US Democratic administration marginalisation of its Middle East allies through its ‘axis of democracy’ diplomatic narrative. Introducing China into the picture recontextualises the ME from the apparent American notion that their withdrawal means the region will simply sink into irrelevance with little geopolitical value, which has led it to so publicly attack its GCC partners like Saudi Arabia. Approaching China therefore reactivates Western interests by exploiting their Cold War “dominos” mentality and this is made obvious by how the entire Western bloc has immediately lined up to reengage the region like clockwork after China’s Dec 7-10 summit.

Dec 14:
Dec 24:

The use of China as a "rebound partner" and as leverage for countries to renegotiate their relationship with the West is often indirectly beneficial to China but it also leads to instances of China being pulled by the nose by “two-faced" leaders using the tactic and then dumping China afterwards without any means of Chinese recourse. This is most evident in its Philippines relationship, where the two Dutertes have continually played the China card, starting with the previous one’s hyped up threat to the US to cancel their Visiting Forces Agreement, which ended up as a big nothing burger episode that merely served to induce American concessions towards furthering their bilaterial relationship. Securing an Iran relationship introduces a means for China to reduce the GCC incentive from expressing such a similar degree of duplicitous insincerity and riding roughshod over China with diplomatic impunity. This is as the threat of alienating China and allowing Iran to gain its full backing would be costly for the GCC’s security concerns (aka the "Ukraine dilemma"). In parallel, securing a GCC relationship bolsters the Iranian impetus to maintain its own China ties through similar concerns of its own.

taxiya said:

That's is oil. Iran has it too, a binding 25 years contract with China (plus infrastructure). SA has not yet.

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Does Iran have the infrastructure today to completely replace Saudi Arabia's oil production and also to transport it to China?

It doesn't now, it won't in 5 years. It probably won't in 10 years.

taxiya said:

Anyone blocking/interrupting Iranian oil into China is automatically China's enemy in 1 millisecond.

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See above.

taxiya said:

If anyone tries that funny business with Iran's production, everything will take a backseat.

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Sure, but see above. This would only happen when Iran replaces SA's role

You wrote a big post but you didn't resolve the foundational contradiction in your argument, which is: Can Iran today or in the foreseeable replace Saudi Arabia in regards to oil production and transportation to China?

Your argument will fall flat as long as you don't or can't address this issue

Overbom said:

Does Iran have the infrastructure today to completely replace Saudi Arabia's oil production and also to transport it to China?

It doesn't now, it won't in 5 years. It probably won't in 10 years.

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No, but who said China should replace one with the other? That is exactly what I have been arguing against.

Overbom said:

Sure, but see above. This would only happen when Iran replaces SA's role

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Again, my argument is China is NOT replacing anyone.

Overbom said:

You wrote a big post but you didn't resolve the foundational contradiction in your argument, which is: Can Iran today or in the foreseeable replace Saudi Arabia in regards to oil production and transportation to China?

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Huh, that is the foundational contradiction? I think that is the thing you kept avoiding answering.

Overbom said:

Your argument will fall flat as long as you don't or can't address this issue

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Before answering why "either/or"/"replacement" is the only way China should do, there is no meaning in further debate.

Forgot to address this in the previous post

taxiya said:

You seem to constantly ignore the same principle of yours when the matter is about Iran. Why? Why always pitting Iran and SA as if they are either-or choice for China?

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Normally, countries can indeed remain neutral but lets not kid ourselves.

If tomorrow SA's oil disappeared, China would be in big poo poo. The reason why I differ so much when Iran and SA come up in discussion is that because the consequences are way too serious for China. I would actually consider it a life or death economical matter for China, especially when you take into account that this would happen during Great Power (economic) competition between China and the US/West.
The consequences are simply way too big for Iran to be allowed to inflict such damage to China.

Btw I think you are probably underestimating how important Saudi Arabia's oil is to China. And you overestimate how much of it Iran can replace immediately immediately or in the short/medium term

To summarise my position, Iran and Saudi Arabia can kill themselves for all I care as long as China doesn't depend on them for its energy needs. Until that happens, Saudi Arabia and Iran shouldnt go into war. Until Iran replaces Saudi Arabia, Iran shouldn't be allowed to attack Saudi Arabia. Ideally noone should attack anyone.