there really isn't any reason for Sukhoi to still need 2 to 3 years to manufacture a T-50 prototype at this point.
Exactly, and with Bort 55 out of commission, you will need to either rebuild it using the bits that were undamaged, or write it off as a total and build another prototype, those tests still will be run, there is simply no other way, and while we may lack specifics, we certainly have a body of evidence as to how these programs have been run in the past. With prototype 01 having structural concerns, and evidence that these concerns are requiring some redesign, which has likely already been accomplished, it does push the project back.
Look at the F-35 program, and losing a test bird, it shut lots of things down, and pushed the project back several months, the same with cracks in bulkheads and wing root ribs, you slow down, take a step back and look at the problem, look at the possible solutions??? and move the project forward, everybody does it, really look at the J-20, we didn't see any prototypes for some time, why?? they were doing just exactly what I said, they were redesigning and rebuilding this airplane, we don't know why they made the changes they did, but they made those changes and pushed the project ahead.
On another note, the J-20 is not built, nor is the J-15/J-16 built on a line as we see here in the West, but as master delft and others continue to point out, they are built in batches??? 2, or 3, or 4 aircraft at a time, and they come off the que the same way. Others have pointed out, the F-22 could be said to be built in the same way, many parts were NOT interchangeable from airframe to airframe, and that was problematic with those early birds, sometime the panels had to be modified to fit on a given airframe.
As a final thought, PAK-FA, J-20, J-31, and F-35 are all "clean sheet" airframes, they are completely new designs, you design, build, and fly, and go back and redesign, rebuild, and refly, until you have it right, then and only then do you move to LRIP, and you may still encounter things that need to be changed, as you begin to operate the aircraft, it begins to accumulate hours, things will crack, break, wear out, chaff, buffet????, who knows, why I get so disgusted when people who haven't ever spun a wrench on anything, flown anything, or broken anything, come out in their lab coats with thick glasses and big watches and start making grand pronouncements about this or that, the truth is in real life, test programs fall behind, costs go up, test points come and go, and production schedules get moved back, and total aircraft sales get cut, not in every case, but frequently enough so that we should plan for and be prepared for these things, and if we get it right the first time, be thankful and move on to the next angle.
These are all very fine promising projects that deserve to move forward, they will each one face many challenges to their success along the way, it is perseverance and hard work that move these birds off the production que, and onto the flight line. I have no doubt that Suhkoi has a winner here, the PAK-FA is in the crucible now, and she will come through her baptism by fire, a better and safer aircraft?
