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Gloire_bb

Captain
Registered Member
1950s missile? which cruise missile that can reliably manufactured and launched in thousands all striking with in meters of CEP across several thousand kms. this alone put alot of stress on protecting ports.
Please don't start adding 'Gucci only' requirements. Your original thesis was about intercontinental cruise missiles. Those are 1950s tech.
Their CEP was lower, but with typical warhead of the time it was more of a problem for a target - hydrogen warhead always hits its epicenter.

The same is true, btw, for all the "supersonic missiles will make X obsolete!". Supersonic anti-ship missiles were deployed almost as early as Caribbean crisis (first Kynda-class was running trials already), that's bloody 60 years ago.
Same is true for 'no big ships' argument. It's an argument as old as the missile age*.

*to be fair, modern combat ships are generally within their late 19th century sizes, before the gun craze.
Drones generally have weak engines and huge wing spans.
They aren't required to have weak engines and huge wing spans - it's just an optimization. Making Mojave out of Reaper didn't really require some incredible aerodynamics magic which we don't know for many decades.
STOL and carrier compatibility is simply another form of optimization, which eats somewhat at specifications - but is generally massively outweighed by the benefits of the freely moving airfield.
do you think this suitable for ships?
This - isn't. It wasn't designed for ships.
(p.s. this thing in particular isn't suitable for anything - kudos to someone who designed it with an obviously unavailable engine).
 
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pmc

Major
Registered Member
Please don't start adding 'Gucci only' requirements. Your original thesis was about intercontinental cruise missiles. Those are 1950s tech.
Their CEP was lower, but with typical warhead of the time it was more of a problem for a target - hydrogen warhead always hits its epicenter.
i want to see operational example of that so called 1950s tech that not only can be reliable mass produced but also reliable stored and mass launched simultaneously. It is the tactical use of intercontinental cruise missiles along with more robust capability of satellite network changed the game. fix target is now piece of cake.
infact it will be hard to replicate this kind of clip in Ukraine missiles in few seconds of each other.

They aren't required to have weak engines and huge wing spans - it's just an optimization. Making Mojave out of Reaper didn't really require some incredible aerodynamics magic which we don't know for many decades.
this is the only cost effective way of making drone cheaper and less power means less consumption hence more staying power.
STOL and carrier compatibility is simply another form of optimization, which eats somewhat at specifications - but is generally massively outweighed by the benefits of the freely moving airfield.
This is all theoretical.
do you think bombers, drones and cruise missiles cannot freely move around?. the way technology is developing we would be seeing swarms of drones air, surface , subsurface and missiles working against ships.
you only need two pilots for future bomber or unmanned bomber flying by AI with much greater range. scientific reality is moving towards mineralization of electronics and greater engine power of aircraft along with more investments into Satellites.
greater human capital tied in these floating barges will make it risk averse to use it effectively that is anywhere near battlespace.
This - isn't. It wasn't designed for ships.
(p.s. this thing in particular isn't suitable for anything - kudos to someone who designed it with an obviously unavailable engine).
it is suitable for its role when enters. AWACS flying from ship barely reach 25000 feet operationally.
 

Gloire_bb

Captain
Registered Member
i want to see operational example of that so called 1950s tech that not only can be reliable mass produced but also reliable stored and mass launched simultaneously.
Yep-yep, Gucci only, or doesn't count.
Missile defences back then - even where they actually existed, which was brutally close to "nowhere" - couldn't reliably stop even single mid-altitude cruise missiles, nor their launch could be prevented any more than launch of 1st gen ballistic missiles.
And given likely warheads, even singular misses were catastrophic in their nature.
this is the only cost effective way of making drone cheaper and less power means less consumption hence more staying power.
Yes, it will be slightly less efficient on paper(in reality, launch point/transit time will outweigh it significantly).
Doesn't change anything fundamentally.
Btw, there is only one nation that really went for the most efficient type of loitering engine (i.e. air diesel) - and thanks to that it got nothing at all. But that paper loitering time is indeed impressive.

This is all theoretical.
Oh, Mojave is quite real. As are all sorts of high-lift devices.
do you think bombers, drones and cruise missiles cannot freely move around?. the way technology is developing we would be seeing swarms of drones air, surface , subsurface and missiles working against ships.
Of course they can. Their bases can't.
Swarms of drones air, surface, subsurface and missiles work against ships for ~70 years. They do the same against fixed targets - and do it better.
Ultimately it's ironically the opposite: the deadlier missiles are, the more discrepancy between size and damage is - the better intermediate platforms will become. Best intermediate platform is a carrier, simply because it's an airfield.
you only need two pilots for future bomber or unmanned bomber flying by AI with much greater range.
The same bomber can be launched from the ship. It will both be smaller yet cycle many times faster this way(or, better yet, will be available directly from the deck). And will fly better as a bonus, because large bombers don't really associate with excellent flying qualities.
Intermediate platforms increase both efficiency and flexibility, massively(to the point of no comparison). Intermediate high-speed air bases (carriers) do it better than almost anything.
it is suitable for its role when enters. AWACS flying from ship barely reach 25000 feet operationally.
It isn't hard to get a plane flying higher. There is simply very little point in getting flying radar beyond that altitude. And it not just 'works', it works right now.
On the other hand, AWACS drone will always be hard-tied to the operators somewhere else, adding one additional layer of complexity and unnecessarily layer of information ping-pong. Operators aren't that difficult to carry on a plane large enough, in the end. Complete package is simply more flexible.

p.s. I would argue that in its existing form, Altius will probably never enter service at all.
 

pmc

Major
Registered Member
Yep-yep, Gucci only, or doesn't count.
Missile defences back then - even where they actually existed, which was brutally close to "nowhere" - couldn't reliably stop even single mid-altitude cruise missiles, nor their launch could be prevented any more than launch of 1st gen ballistic missiles.
And given likely warheads, even singular misses were catastrophic in their nature.
missile defence cannot be every where working 24/7 effectively and reliably. unreliable engineering can make things even worse as more manpower is needed to maintain it. the missiles that you see vide are based on 1970s tech and they have reliable route planned thats why you see them in video. you will need very expensive SAMs to intercept things that are built with 21st century tech.
the point is there is no point using ships to interdict cargo in high seas when cruise missiles can reach Ports and oil refineries. even the grain storage can blow up. the bigger the navy the larger it exposed the support structure.
Yes, it will be slightly less efficient on paper(in reality, launch point/transit time will outweigh it significantly).
Doesn't change anything fundamentally.
Btw, there is only one nation that really went for the most efficient type of loitering engine (i.e. air diesel) - and thanks to that it got nothing at all. But that paper loitering time is indeed impressive.

Oh, Mojave is quite real. As are all sorts of high-lift devices.
yup as real was its used anywhere Ukraine. how many can be built at reasonable price that can be reliable launched from carriers at reasonable distances simultaneously. there is no point one at time like Ukraine used to launch TB2 or the ther Tu drone. either built multi prong attack like Russia used upto 20 Tu-95MS or not waste manpower playing with these toys.
Of course they can. Their bases can't.
Swarms of drones air, surface, subsurface and missiles work against ships for ~70 years. They do the same against fixed targets - and do it better.
Ultimately it's ironically the opposite: the deadlier missiles are, the more discrepancy between size and damage is - the better intermediate platforms will become. Best intermediate platform is a carrier, simply because it's an airfield.
Swarms of drones can use larger bomber ability to carry that give it range range advantage unlike some thing oversize from the carrier or ground. There is clear choice between investing in ever larger and more capable bomber fleet or wasting resources in thousands manning a carrier and related support structure that ageing population will burden the system.
The same bomber can be launched from the ship. It will both be smaller yet cycle many times faster this way(or, better yet, will be available directly from the deck). And will fly better as a bonus, because large bombers don't really associate with excellent flying qualities.
Intermediate platforms increase both efficiency and flexibility, massively(to the point of no comparison). Intermediate high-speed air bases (carriers) do it better than almost anything.
for example? what kind of bomber can be launched from ship. what has carrier achieved independently that is not depended on land bases?. there is cost associated with having larger ports for carriers.
It isn't hard to get a plane flying higher. There is simply very little point in getting flying radar beyond that altitude. And it not just 'works', it works right now.
On the other hand, AWACS drone will always be hard-tied to the operators somewhere else, adding one additional layer of complexity and unnecessarily layer of information ping-pong. Operators aren't that difficult to carry on a plane large enough, in the end. Complete package is simply more flexible.
You need bigger and larger bomber force that stay up in air 24 hours. that interlinked to AWACS UAVs. bombers will get there own radars and there persistent high speed dash will outgun any compromised fighter from carrier.
p.s. I would argue that in its existing form, Altius will probably never enter service at all.
what ever form it will enter. The engines certification going on and they will be used in various rotary platforms.
you can argue all the theoretical scenarios. we are living in post Covid world. pay attention to Pilot salaries /work schedules and future supply in Civil aviation. this just on aspect. Even one carrier voyage per year will increasingly become luxury and when not in use the reliability and operational skills will decrease causing mishaps in high tempo operations.
 

minusone

Junior Member
Registered Member
Russia also delivered 2 MiG-31BMs this year I think. They have loads of Su-25 in storage. The Soviets built 1,300 of them. It is probably going to be replaced with increased usage of drones in the long term. The Su-24MR is supposed to be replaced with either the Su-34NVO (which he calls Su-34M) with special reconnaissance pod or drones.

Like they say the biggest problem is pilots not combat aircraft.


China used a much lower risk airframe design. Su-57 is the first airframe to enter service optimized for 3D TVC nozzles. Su-57 has more control surfaces. Plus China has a bigger budget. It is as simple as that. Production will ramp up eventually once Su-57M design is approved for serial production and they upgrade the production facilities.
i doubt any of these statements are legit.

Does anyone have footage of Su-57 opening their internal weapon bay?
 

Deino

Lieutenant General
Staff member
Super Moderator
Registered Member
How many Flankers have Russia produced in 2022 vs China?


Well ...

2. Su-35S: 6-7 (VKS)
3. Su-34M: 10-12 (VKS)
4. Su-30SM2: 4 (Naval Aviation) = Total: 20-22

IMO the current production rate at SAC seems to be two batches of about 24 J-16s each and the current rate of J-15s I don't know.

@tphuang what do you think?



...
China used a much lower risk airframe design. Su-57 is the first airframe to enter service optimized for 3D TVC nozzles. Su-57 has more control surfaces. Plus China has a bigger budget. It is as simple as that. Production will ramp up eventually once Su-57M design is approved for serial production and they upgrade the production facilities.


That's pure non-sense! The J-20 being a "lower risk airframe design"!? So, the more control surfaces the more time you need to get it done?! What a ridiculous excuse. :p

Come on ... they simply have no budget and still technical issues and even if, this compares to a rate of about 40 J-20s per year!
 
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tphuang

Lieutenant General
Staff member
Super Moderator
VIP Professional
Registered Member
Well ...

2. Su-35S: 6-7 (VKS)
3. Su-34M: 10-12 (VKS)
4. Su-30SM2: 4 (Naval Aviation) = Total: 20-22

IMO the current production rate at SAC seems to be two batches of about 24 J-16s each and the current rate of J-15s I don't know.

@tphuang what do you think?






That's pure non-sense! The J-20 being a "lower risk airframe design"!? So, the more control surfaces the more time you need to get it done?! What a ridiculous excuse. :p

Come on ... they simply have no budget and still technical issues and even if, this compares to a rate of about 40 J-20s per year!
I think also some j16d. Probably 10 or under
 

pmc

Major
Registered Member
Come on ... they simply have no budget and still technical issues and even if, this compares to a rate of about 40 J-20s per year!
I dont think it has anything to do with Money. otherwise they wont be producing two frontline heavy attack choppers like Mi-28NM and Ka-52M. Thats what Russian aviation so interesting.
They are simultaneously working on two composite wing civil aviation planes. in addition to modernizing legacy planes like IL-96/Tu-214.
high risk mean need to take things much slower. if they are so much into composites on Civil aviation why do think they will take less risky approach to Su-57?
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As part of his visit to TsAGI, the Deputy Prime Minister - Head of the Ministry of Industry and Trade of Russia examined a unique test bench and a prototype of the caisson of the composite wing of a promising wide-body long-range aircraft, which is currently being developed. Denis Manturov also got acquainted with the course of life tests of MC-21 and SSJ-NEW (RRJ-NEW) aircraft.

They are testing it at night time with people MS-21. so presumably these are civilian familiarization tests in extreme weather. as the weather at night can be easily -30 if not lower. This is not weather what other aviation testing centers face like in France or even Seattle.
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gelgoog

Brigadier
Registered Member
2. Su-35S: 6-7 (VKS)
3. Su-34M: 10-12 (VKS)
4. Su-30SM2: 4 (Naval Aviation) = Total: 20-22
Those are the Flanker aircraft delivered to the Russian Air Force. Then you have the Su-35s they made for the Egyptian order.
If you want to determine Russia's current industrial output capabilities you should take those into consideration. Even then these numbers are way off from peak production like a decade ago.

I expect the Su-34NVO and Su-30SM2 production to ramp up. Now that these aircraft are available, imports of electronics components used in them were replaced. There are still quite a few Su-24 aircraft to replace. Plus some airframe losses in the Ukraine conflict. The Su-35 does not use any imported components that I know of, but the factory was busy building the Egyptian order, and it is not like Russia is lacking Su-35s. Does it even make sense to buy a lot of these aircraft when the Su-57M is already in testing? The Flanker HUD used to be made in Ukraine, and some Flankers used LCD MFDs imported from France. Both of those components were replaced in the Su-30SM2 and Su-34NVO. The Su-35 already used Russian design LCD MFDs I think and now the others got the same treatment. A modern Russian HUD was also designed, using digital electronics to replace the analog Ukrainian design, and put into serial production.

That's pure non-sense! The J-20 being a "lower risk airframe design"!? So, the more control surfaces the more time you need to get it done?! What a ridiculous excuse.
Is it? The more control surfaces you have the harder it is to model the airframe. The harder it is to write the fly by wire software. And the harder it is to make the hydraulics for it. The J-20's main airframe difficulties are the canard design. But China already had made the J-10. So they had experience modeling canards and writing the fly by wire software for them. The Su-57's LEVCONs are unique and no other aircraft uses them. It is also the first aircraft to be designed to take TVC into consideration to reduce the area of the vertical control surfaces. The J-20 does not even have TVC. The Su-57 is a second generation TVC airframe. The J-20 uses DSI inlets which are way cheaper to design and manufacture at the expense of kinematic performance loss. There is a reason why the supposed to be cheap F-35 uses them and the F-22 does not.

Come on ... they simply have no budget and still technical issues and even if, this compares to a rate of about 40 J-20s per year!
Of course Russia has less budget and industrial capacity than China. Even the US cannot match China in fighter aircraft production when you consider it with all its satrapies put together. When people say "the US produced these F-35 or those F-35 this year". A lot of those F-35 parts are made in partner countries and/or bought with those countries money. And we are comparing a single engine aircraft with the mostly two engines that China is producing. There is a huge, huge, gap in production between the US and China and it is definitively in China's favor. China makes way more engines and the airframes are way more complex.

As for Russia, they have more fighter aircraft in service than the UK and France put together. More than Japan. So I do not know what is your problem really. Should they just produce aircraft for the heck of it? Most of their in service airframes are like a decade old at this point. At least the Su-30/34/35. If Russia really needed airframes for whatever reason quickly, they have loads of Su-27 airframes in mothballs, hundreds, which can be upgraded to Su-27SM3 status. While the Soviets had way more airframes, those were short ranged single role aircraft for the most part. China has not been replacing its J-7s 1:1 either.

IIRC Russia has mothballed all its MiG-29s. Even the remaining MiG-29SMTs have been put into pasture. All the stock Su-27 airframes were also retired and you only have SM or better models in service. The MiG-31 has mostly been upgraded to the BM variant. The major weaknesses from my point of view are the remaining Su-24 models, lack of replacement for the Su-25, and the fact that the early Su-30 aircraft have really weak avionics by modern standards. The first and last problem are taken care of by the Su-34M and Su-30SM2 designs. And the Su-25 might be replaced with drones and attack helicopters. After that you will have the MiG-31 replacement but I doubt it will happen before 2030.

If Russia did not have money they would not fund upgrades for all three of their bomber aircraft models at the same time they develop a new model. You continue making this argument to death. But it does not make it any more true. For whatever reason you seem to think all problems can be solved with money. But technical issues take time to be solved. The Su-57 is not produced in larger numbers because the design is not considered mature enough by the Russian Air Force and there is no pressing requirement for it either. It is as simple as that. Would you prefer Russia do like the US and build like a hundred of these aircraft and then relegate them to be uber expensive trainers?
 
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