I found about this through the Ukraine war thread but considering the importance I decided to put it here. It's the better thread for record keeping.
----
Transcript from the meeting of Defence Board in Moscow, 21st December 2022.
English transcript contains translation errors and gives some of the quantities incorrectly. I only list important structural changes, mostly from S. Shoigu's statement on plans for Russian armed forces in 2023 and beyond.
The biggest administrative change is re-creation of Leningrad and Moscow military districts. Kaliningrad and Baltic Fleet will become part of Leningrad MD.
----
Ground Forces, Naval Infantry, Airborne:
1. Creation of three new motor rifle divisions within existing formations, including in Zaporozhia and Kherson regions and an army corps in Karelia
2. Transformation of seven motor rifle brigades from western, central, eastern and northern military districts to motor rifle divisions
3. Creation of two air assault divisions within Airborne Forces.
4. Transformation of five Naval Infantry brigades to divisions
5. Creation of five artillery divisions and heavy artillery brigades within military districts as reserve.
Below is a simplified notional table of current formations in the Ground Forces listing the number of battalions and approximate number of combat vehicles.
T - tank, MR - motor rifle, Div - division, Bg - brigade, Rgt - Regiment, b - battalion, (T) - battalion from tank brigades/regiments, (MR) - battalion from motor rifle brigades/regiments
Similar notional table for Naval Infantry and Airborne:
Taking into account points [1] to [5] I changed the figures in the following units chosen for notional transformation to divisions:
- 25MR Bg, 138 MR Bg (6 Army / WMD) [1]
- 200 MR Bg (13 Corps / NMD) [1]
- 15 MR Bg (2 Army / CMD), 35 MR Bg (41 Army / CMD) [1]
- 36 MR Bg (29 Army / EMD), 38 MR Bg (35 Army / EMD) [1]
- 205 Mr Bg, 34 MR Bg (49 Army / SMD) [2]
- 11 AA Bg, 31 AA Bg [3]
- 336 NI Bg, 810 NI Bg, 177 NI Rgt, 61 NI Bg, 40 NI Bg [4]
I assumed two scenarios. One with transformed units receiving full composition of at least three regiments, both tank and motor rifle, and another with reduced expansion assuming only two motor rifle regiments based on the current structure of some newly reformed units like 20 Motor Rifle Division.
I prepared the table before comparing the transcripts so I'm missing one motor rifle division but this is not crucial. Artillery divisions currently do not exist so I couldn't approximate their composition.
Additional forces required for this process are as follows:
scenario with full divisions:
- Ground Forces - 1260 tanks, 1250 ifvs
- Naval Infantry - 400 tanks, 900 ifvs
- Airborne - 360 ifvs
- total - 1660 tanks, 2610 ifvs
scenario with reduced divisions:
- Ground Forces - 360 tanks, 810 ifvs
- Naval Infantry - 200 tanks, 450 ifvs
- Airborne - 180 ifvs
- total - 560 tanks, 1440 ifvs
I list only ifvs so apcs and other vehicles outside of infantry platoons are not listed.
For context - table of losses of equipment based on Oryx (30 december) with figures for inventory before the invasion from The Military Balance 2021:
My table of units shows 3270 tanks and 5030 ifvs in Ground Forces which corresponds with numbers from TMB because some of the divisions are calculated as full strength when in reality they are probably under strength because they were reformed from brigades in 2020 or 2021. TMB table has Naval Infantry and 1-2 brigades from Ground Forces (coastal defense) so numbers are close. TMB shows VDV with more tanks but I couldn't find them in the structure.
All in all, considering the losses (which are approximately at the level indicated by Oryx), the wear on surviving vehicles, and the additional requirements this will be a much longer process, probably lasting an entire year because even in the second scenario it requires restoring/repairing approximately 1-2 thousand of tanks and bringing approximately 2000 tanks out of reserve. Considering the continuation of hostilities these objectives will be difficult to achieve.
----
Air Force
1. Creation of three division commands
2. Creation of eight bomber regiments
3. Creation of one fighter regiment
4. Creation of six army aviation brigades
5. Inclusion of army aviation brigades in every combined arms army
The three division commands correspond with re-creation of Leningrad and Moscow military districts. Additionally Northern Fleet doesn't have an aviation division, all regiments are separate units subordinate to district command.
Creation of a single fighter regiment might refer to a Su-57 unit but it is not certain.
Eight new bomber regiments refer to tactical bombers in Frontal Aviation and not strategic (heavy) bombers in Long Range Aviation. However currently there is only one regiment with three squadrons that could be split into two units. Other regiments will have to be created from scratch which will require aircraft. Considering losses of Su-34 and Su-24M and the production rate there is no possibility for new aircraft to fill even a single regiment. This means that Su-24M will have to be brought back from reserve for transition period. This requires 8 x 2 (squadrons) x 12 =
192 aircraft minimum. This is not tenable in the scale of a single year and probably indicates training or reserve units. I doubt Russia has that many aircraft in reserve in condition allowing return to service. Half of it will be a success. Perhaps some recon squadrons will be reformed as bomber regiments with one bomber squadron and one recon squadron - which could be practical considering future role of Su-34M.
Six army aviation brigades will be created from existing helo regiments. Brigades have 4 squadrons - 2 attack, 1 attack-transport, 1 transport. Regiments can have as few as 2 squadrons - 1 attack, 1 transport. Currently there are 4 brigades and 8 regiments. Northern Fleet will have to receive one of those as it is currently lacking.
The inclusion of aviation brigades in all armies is confusing. This is not a translation error. There are 12 armies so unless some of them will be disbanded or demoted to corps there's not enough planned aviation brigades - ten total planned.
In 2023 air force will receive 3 more Tu-160M. In 2022 it received 1 Tu-160M and 1 Tu-95MSM. No information on other aircraft and helo delivery or production.
----
Navy:
No changes, just new vessels
In 2022 it received 1 SSBN and 6 surface ships. I assume they are:
- 1 Adm Gorshkov frigate
- 2 Karakurt corvette
- 2 Buyan-M corvette
- 1 Bykov OPV,
In 2023 it will receive 1 SSBN, 4 conventional submarines and 12 surface ships:
- 2 Lada SSK
- 2 Improved Kilo SSK
- 2 Steregushchiy corvette
- 1 Derzhky corvette
- 6 Karakurt corvette
- 1 Buyan-M corvette
- 2 Bykov OPV
Of those 1 Steregushchiy, 5 Karakurts, Buyan, both Bykovs and possibly Derzhky (proj. 20386) will go to Black Sea Fleet. However while impressive at first glance only the three large corvettes (Steregushchiy and Derzhky) will have serious impact. The rest are largely useless and serve only as coastal patrol and Kalibr lauchers.
What is important is that those corvettes were originally intended for other fleets but the failure of the invasion forced Kremlin to prioritize the reinforcement of Black Sea Fleet to the detriment of Northern and Pacific fleets.
----
Happy New Year!