Russian Military News, Reports, Data, etc.

Tam

Brigadier
Registered Member
You must have confused me with someone else. I don't remember questioning your statements. Personally, I don't think any question regarding why Moskva sank should be considered inappropriate.

It's only by questioning and elimination that we can hope to arrive at some semblance of a picture of what may have transpired two days ago.

I would like an answer to my question, how exactly did the Ukrainians detect, identify and track the Moskva during a storm?

The TB-2 drone does not carry a radar - please correct me if I am wrong. In inclement weather with heavy rain, optical sensors will be severely degraded. I have some reservations that the TB-2 could track the Moskva in those conditions from a safe distance. If there was heavy rain at the time of the attack, I doubt the TB-2 would be able to stay out of even Osa's range and maintain track on target.

Alternatively there could have been some other aerial asset equipped with a radar. But which one?

Theoretically ,the Ukrainians could have detected and tracked the Moskva with an over the horizon terrestrial radar. However, I think it is safe to assume that the Russians have destroyed all such static radars.

Another possibility is that the Ukrainians have used DF and ESM systems to detect, triangulate and identify the Moskva and construct a somewhat rough firing solution. I don't know if they have the networked capability to triangulate ships at sea using passive sensors. Can anyone shed some light on this?

Yet another possibility is espionage: the Ukrainians somehow got hold of Moskva's patrol plans for that day and that was good enough to launch a missile from about a 100km away.

According to a Ukrainian source, this is not the first time Ukraine has attacked Moskva with anti-ship missiles. However, Moskva shot down their missiles in the previous attacks.

Source:
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A simulation I ran with CMO gives credence to the position that in a normal situation Moskva is more than capable to defend itself from 2 Neptune style anti-ship missiles.

The major variable that is pointed out by the Ukrainians is the stormy weather on that day. That somehow interfered with the ships ability to defend itself.

It could be the case that the ship was particularly vulnerable to sea skimming missiles in high sea state conditions. Its primary horizon search radar was the outdated Top Steer S-band radar from the late 70s with analog electronics. It's navigation and secondary surface search radar was the X-band Palm Frond, also late 70s technology.

The missiles might have snaked around Snake Island adding additional ground clutter to the equation. The ship appears to have been about 25-30nm from the island when it was spotted ablaze by SAR radar in orbit.
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You can triangulation and target a ship at sea long range via its own emissions using ESM or passive. The Ukrainians have access, even possibly has design and manufacturing contribution to the Bandstand/Mineral antiship radar and targeting system that allows for both active OTH detection and targeting of a ship via ducting, or by passive detection and tracking also OTH in long ranges. These systems are in the Sovremenny and 052B and are copied/inherited to the PLAN as the ubiquitous Type 366 radars and systems on board the 052C/D and 054A. See the large white dome on top of the bridge.
 

anzha

Senior Member
Registered Member
Reuters is reporting there was about 100 sailors in the video. I imagine the wounded were obviously not present, but even if 2x were badly wounded, there's an estimated 200 missing past that.

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Richard Santos

Captain
Registered Member
if the sea is rough, the ship may well have trouble detecting an incoming sea skimming missile. I find it odd that people are so resistant to believing the Moskva could succumb to two Neptune missiles. The following facts suggest to me it is entirely not unexpected that 2 missiles could sink the Moskva under the circumstances:

1. Moskva is old, have not seen a major refit or upgrade. it is by no means clear what the true material state of the ship is in. Are all her systems even functional. are all her radar and equipment in working order and performing up to original specs. If they are functional but not function at designed level, have the russian navy actually ascertained exactly what level are they functioning at and made allowances accordingly, or are they operating in a fog not knowing the precise current capability of the ship given her current t material state?

2. Have the 40 year old seals around all her watertight doors and glands around piping and cable or penetrations through watertight bulkheads been kept in top shape since the fall of the USSR 30 years ago?

3. the sea was rough. a ship with compromised watertight integrity is exponentially more likely to succumb to progressive flooding in rough weather than in calm weather.

4. we know from interior photos of Kirov class that large Russia warships are much less well subdivided internally than would be considered acceptable in the west, For example the S-300 battery on the Kirov was housed in a single large compartment. if such a large compartment floods on rough weather, free surface effect will quickly rob the ship of stability much faster than the flooding would rob the ship of bouyancy.

5. Moskva is a particularly susceptible ship to sympathetic demotion of her own warhead in the case of a hit by antiship missile thanks to the massive battery of P-500 tubes that takes up 1/4 of the ship’s length just forward of midship. so a hits that might have just left a couple of big smoking holes on another warship can trigger a cascaded series of sympathetic detonations and fuel fires on the moskva.
 
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Richard Santos

Captain
Registered Member
I would have to say given the performance of the Russian military in this war, I would not be surprised at all, if the Moskva was not exactly a well-maintained ship, run by an experienced and highly competent crew. I would also not be surprised if in fact no one in the Russian black sea fleet knows maskva precise current capability given her current material condition.
 

Michaelsinodef

Senior Member
Registered Member
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At around 10 minutes Xi Yazhou talks about an experience he had boarding the 'newest' slava class ship (the Varyag, about 10ish years younger than the Moskva?), and well, his description is: "rust all around the gun (is what I think the translation is), some doors have their locks broken and instead uses some rope, there's some civilian airconditioner installed around the place, and it smells like the garbage hasn't been taken out".
 

Zichan

Junior Member
Registered Member
I would have to say given the performance of the Russian military in this war, I would not be surprised at all, if the Moskva was not exactly a well-maintained ship, run by an experienced and highly competent crew. I would also not be surprised if in fact no one in the Russian black sea fleet knows maskva precise current capability given her current material condition.
According to a Ukrainian report, this was not the first attack on Moskva with anti-ship missiles during this war. In the prior attack(s) Moskva shot down incoming Ukrainian missiles.
 

gelgoog

Brigadier
Registered Member
You can triangulation and target a ship at sea long range via its own emissions using ESM or passive. The Ukrainians have access, even possibly has design and manufacturing contribution to the Bandstand/Mineral antiship radar and targeting system that allows for both active OTH detection and targeting of a ship via ducting, or by passive detection and tracking also OTH in long ranges.
The US is feeding intel to Ukraine. The US have SAR satellite data. The US can easily track and spot a ship as large as that and provide the location data to Ukraine. Since Ukraine makes the Neptune they could probably modify it to manually input the target coordinates before launch or maybe even add a mid course guidance mechanism if it did not have that already. I do not think that is the problem here. The problem is the ship is huge and the ammo payload in the Neptune is tiny. And while the Moskva had loads of weapons most are in sealed containers. And some of the other missiles they claimed had been used before, Penguin missiles, Brimstone, do not even have the range to hit that location from the Ukrainian coastline. Then again, like Andrei Martyanov said, the fire supression system on the ship was obsolete.
So maybe it did cause a tiny fire and that was not supressed and caused critical damage. But you know what? Where is their corroborating evidence? Missile launch video? Zip. Video feed from the drone they claim they used? Nada. That is why I simply keep an open mind about it. And Ukraine hasn't had a good track record at this kind of info.
 
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