Just dropping by with a data update:
Alexandr Shishkin's
navy-korabel.livejournal.com updated the list of
current Russian navy procurement on 1st January 2024
View attachment 124845
Alexandr Shishkin is the most reliable Russian naval blogger and his posts regularly serve as sources for other publications or Wikipedia updates. I'm stressing this because this new updated list does not include several positions from previous list from 1st July 2023, including all ships with contracts signed in 2022 and 2023, as well as several ships with contracts signed in August of 2020 (!). This has never happened before, and Shishkin is well known for keeping his sources up to date and keeping a constant watch on Russian naval developments. If there are rumours in the Russian press, statements from shipyard staff and
Shishkin doesn't list it then
I don't trust it.
Here's the previous list from 1st July 2023 with indicated delayed projects (in red) and estimated years of delay (number of dots). All the ships not in green or blue are
gone. Only two Impr. Ivan Gren ships are added but without any further detail as to contract dates.
View attachment 124846
Comparison:
| class | type | missing | current total | previously planned total |
| Borei | SSBN | 2 | 10 | 12 |
| Yasen | SSGN | 2 | 8 | 10 |
| Lada | SSK | 1 | 5 | 6 |
| Impr. Kilo | SSK | 4 | 12 | 16 |
| Impr. Admiral Gorshkov | FFG/DDG | 3 | 0 | 3 |
| Admiral Gorshkov | FFG | 5 | 6 | 11 |
| Gremyashchiy | FFC | 2 | 5 | 7 |
| Steregushchiy | FFC | 2 | 5 | 7 |
Fewer Kilos means no submarines for the Baltic Fleet. It seems improbable considering the speed of their construction so far but arguably it isn't the worst idea since the Baltic has become officially a NATO lake. Ten Boreis is the minimum level for deterrence with two persistent patrols at sea. Ten SSBNs is also the minimum for USN.
The five missing Gorshkovs are a surprise. It means that there has been no additional ship in the (very needed) class started in three preceding years; 2021, 2022 and 2023, and likely there are no plans for 2024. In july of 2023 Shishkin posted on the expected laying down of the keel for first two Improved Gorshkov ships. He based it on a state report designating the completion of R&D phase for Project 22350M in December of 2023. The expected date is around Navy Day in July of 2024. If that doesn't happen then it can only mean that the Russian Navy lost the battle in the Kremlin and is getting taken to the woodshed.
This is list of current fleet status for 1st January 2024:
Note the number of SSNs - out of 13 nominally in service only
four are available.
This projection (end of post) could prove to have been
too optimistic:
New RVV MD2 missiles for Russian Su-57 aircraft. For the Russian Su-57 fighters, fifth-generation short-range missiles RVV-MD2 were created, which are ahead of world developments by five, ten years, there is no image of the rocket yet. Briefly about air-to-air missiles. In the RVV-MD2 missile...
www.sinodefenceforum.com
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This is table of equipment stocks according to
The Military Balance for 2016 and 2021, Polish publicist
Jaroslaw Wolski (YT) for 2016, and
Institute Action Resilience for 2021, as well as combat losses and remaining equipment (TMB 2021 minus losses) by
Oryx and estimates of reserves and withdrawals in 2023 by
Covert Cabal (YT).
View attachment 124849
View attachment 124850
Number of T-72s and T-80 in reserve (CC) are static because of missing parts as pre-2022 T-72 and T-80 were upgraded using old stock. These require
full remanufacture which is not possible at current rate of factory occupancy with 100% of tanks requiring full overhaul after frontline use.
Also this, from 31 Dec 2022:
https://www.rt.com/russia/569188-strategic-aviation-new-bombers/ Russia beefs up its strategic aviation (VIDEO) One of the aircraft being introduced is considered “the most important part” of the country’s nuclear triad © UAC Russia’s Long-Range Aviation has received a...
www.sinodefenceforum.com
Additional equipment required for expansion:
if 3 regiments per division:
- Ground Forces - 1260 tanks, 1250 ifvs
- Naval Infantry - 400 tanks, 900 ifvs
- Airborne - 360 ifvs
- total - 1660 tanks, 2610 ifvs
if 2 regiments per division:
- Ground Forces - 360 tanks, 810 ifvs
- Naval Infantry - 200 tanks, 450 ifvs
- Airborne - 180 ifvs
- total - 560 tanks, 1440 ifvs
Cosidering the scale of losses, and currently calculated reserve stocks by IAR and CC (TMB had indicative quantities) it seems Russia is barely managing to keep the pre-war levels for tanks,
without full expansion. For IFV/APC and artillery they should be somewhat capable of expanding with BMP-1s. MT-LB losses can be replaced but will use up most of reserves which matters as it is the most useful all-terrain tractor. The quantity of 2A36, D-20, D-30 and MT-12 reactivated is too high compard to 2S1 and 2S3 which suggests that towed systems are harvested for barrels in record numbers. If this continues through to 2025 Russia will be out of reserves and considering mechanical wear of vehicles the same will apply there. The main strategic advantage that Russia held before 2022 which made it a credible threat in a conventional conflict will be gone, with nothing gained in return.
All the Vatniks here would be in shambles if they were intelligent enough to know what is going on. At least the people in Kremlin are just as completely confused. What a spectacular shitshow.
