Alexandr Shishkin is the most reliable Russian naval blogger and his posts regularly serve as sources for other publications or Wikipedia updates. I'm stressing this because this new updated list does not include several positions from previous list from 1st July 2023, including all ships with contracts signed in 2022 and 2023, as well as several ships with contracts signed in August of 2020 (!). This has never happened before, and Shishkin is well known for keeping his sources up to date and keeping a constant watch on Russian naval developments. If there are rumours in the Russian press, statements from shipyard staff and Shishkin doesn't list it then I don't trust it.
A lot of things stopped being published after Russia invaded Ukraine. Especially detailed projections of future purchases. So what.
Also just because they haven't ordered more ships does not mean they won't build more ships. You are reminding me of the people who were crowing that the Su-57 would only be built in 12 units because that was the initial Russian government order. The state order gets revised and modified regularly.
Fewer Kilos means no submarines for the Baltic Fleet. It seems improbable considering the speed of their construction so far but arguably it isn't the worst idea since the Baltic has become officially a NATO lake.
I heard nothing about that. They are supposed to build another four Kilos after the one being built for the Pacific Fleet is delivered. Not that I think it is a good idea to continue building them, since the Kilo is basically obsolete. Particularly in noise level and sensors. Now that the Lada is available they should be building that instead.
The last Kilo they are building for the Pacific Fleet should be delayed in deliveries as there were reports that Admiralty Shipyard sent their workers home last December because of lack of operational cashflow. So basically all construction projects there have stalled including this submarine. This is because of an order to build civilian ships which got stuck because of lack of Western components for civilian ships. Payment by the civilian client thus never happened and now they are without operating cashflow.
Ten Boreis is the minimum level for deterrence with two persistent patrols at sea. Ten SSBNs is also the minimum for USN.
I have seen no evidence that Russia won't build more Borei SSBNs. They often start laying the keels of two simultaneously and the last one was launched just this month. It will take time to prepare the yard to lay the next batch but I expect it to happen this year.
The five missing Gorshkovs are a surprise. It means that there has been no additional ship in the (very needed) class started in three preceding years; 2021, 2022 and 2023, and likely there are no plans for 2024.
Severnaya Verf is being sued in court by the Russian government for delays in delivering the Admiral Golovko. The Russian government didn't pay for the ship yet. You also have to remember that they had a 20385 corvette which burned before being delivered to the client. The whole upper structure is being rebuilt. So they will likely have to foot the bill for that as well. I suspect that the resulting cash crunch delayed construction for the other ships. They should launch one corvette this year. Which means they will have space to build more ships. Remains to be seen what will happen. The engines for the Admiral Isakov were delivered a long time ago, but as for the other components I have no information about it. I have also heard rumors of difficulties with equipping the Admiral Golovko with electronic equipment after the 2014 sanctions. But whatever. It was delivered.
Since Severnaya Verf has four covered berths and four open slipways, there is a limit to how many ships they can build simultaneously. They are currently building five Project 22350 frigates, one Project 20380 corvette, I also heard one Project 20386 corvette was put back into a covered berth. So it's not like they can just start construction of another five frigate ships right now. That is basically impossible. And putting the hull in the water and continuing construction there isn't a good option either because of the weather in St. Petersburg. Open air construction is next to impossible in the winter.
In july of 2023 Shishkin posted on the expected laying down of the keel for first two Improved Gorshkov ships. He based it on a state report designating the completion of R&D phase for Project 22350M in December of 2023. The expected date is around Navy Day in July of 2024. If that doesn't happen then it can only mean that the Russian Navy lost the battle in the Kremlin and is getting taken to the woodshed.
The original plan was to build the Project 22350M ships in a new boathouse. Which never got built. They switched building contractors several times to little avail. The shipyard did build Udaloy class destroyers in Soviet times so I think they could still build these ships, but it won't be at the originally planned rate that is for sure.
As you can see the support beams are in place but the boathouse was never built.
Note the number of SSNs - out of 13 nominally in service only four are available.
Yeah the situation with SSNs is basically a disaster. Likely won't start to be rectified until after the Laika starts being built. But the Yasen can also operate as an attack sub if necessary and they have four of those.
This projection (end of post) could prove to have been
too optimistic:
...
This is table of equipment stocks according to The Military Balance for 2016 and 2021, Polish publicist Jaroslaw Wolski (YT) for 2016, and Institute Action Resilience for 2021, as well as combat losses and remaining equipment (TMB 2021 minus losses) by Oryx and estimates of reserves and withdrawals in 2023 by Covert Cabal (YT).
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Number of T-72s and T-80 in reserve (CC) are static because of missing parts as pre-2022 T-72 and T-80 were upgraded using old stock. These require full remanufacture which is not possible at current rate of factory occupancy with 100% of tanks requiring full overhaul after frontline use.
You have negative numbers of tanks remaining in the red table columns. And you don't see a problem with that? Garbage in, garbage out.
Also this, from 31 Dec 2022:
...
Additional equipment required for expansion:
if 3 regiments per division:
- Ground Forces - 1260 tanks, 1250 ifvs
- Naval Infantry - 400 tanks, 900 ifvs
- Airborne - 360 ifvs
- total - 1660 tanks, 2610 ifvs
if 2 regiments per division:
- Ground Forces - 360 tanks, 810 ifvs
- Naval Infantry - 200 tanks, 450 ifvs
- Airborne - 180 ifvs
- total - 560 tanks, 1440 ifvs
Cosidering the scale of losses, and currently calculated reserve stocks by IAR and CC (TMB had indicative quantities) it seems Russia is barely managing to keep the pre-war levels for tanks, without full expansion. For IFV/APC and artillery they should be somewhat capable of expanding with BMP-1s. MT-LB losses can be replaced but will use up most of reserves which matters as it is the most useful all-terrain tractor.
The MT-LB should be trashed anyway since it was built in Ukraine and they won't be building them there anymore. Why do you think Russia is using them as disposable kamikaze vehicles laden with explosives?
The quantity of 2A36, D-20, D-30 and MT-12 reactivated is too high compard to 2S1 and 2S3 which suggests that towed systems are harvested for barrels in record numbers.
You really believe this nonsense from Covert Cabal? How long do you think an artillery barrel survives firing at the rates they do?
Getting barrels from the towed artillery in storage would be of little help.
If this continues through to 2025 Russia will be out of reserves and considering mechanical wear of vehicles the same will apply there. The main strategic advantage that Russia held before 2022 which made it a credible threat in a conventional conflict will be gone, with nothing gained in return.
Russia left the CFE Treaty in 2015. There are no reliable numbers. Oryx's inflated Russian vehicle losses numbers are no help either. And you seem to assume Russia isn't building or repairing anything.
Russia gained a couple million new citizens and land linked Crimea. And you say they gained nothing. Sure whatever floats your boat.
All the Vatniks here would be in shambles if they were intelligent enough to know what is going on. At least the people in Kremlin are just as completely confused. What a spectacular shitshow.
Since when wasn't the Russian Navy procurement a shitshow anyway. There is nothing new here.
