Russian efforts to sell the Su-57/PAK FA to China

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The day Chinese buys an Indian-reject fighter is the day I shout Reiwa Banzai!! and commit ritual seppuku disembowlment in front of Yasukuni.
To be fair, having India rejecting anything does not mean much for the image of the Su-75, seeing as India has a track record of being one of the more picky and uncooperative customers in the military industry. Simply put, the amount of red tape, plus the desire to have it all at the minimum cost and maximum guarantees makes even the most simple transactions a living nightmare.
 

Air Force Brat

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To be fair, having India rejecting anything does not mean much for the image of the Su-75, seeing as India has a track record of being one of the more picky and uncooperative customers in the military industry. Simply put, the amount of red tape, plus the desire to have it all at the minimum cost and maximum guarantees makes even the most simple transactions a living nightmare.

Bingo! you hit the nail on the head, though the Russians were "playing games" as well, two gamers don't always get the job done...

China is not playing games, and no doubt Russia would consider the sale of the Su-57 to China a "Cherry", it would lift Russia's status in the world as we know it, so we'll see? It did take China a while to buy the Su-35, but I believe they are very satisfied, and the appearance of the J-10 OVT at Zhuhai is an encouraging sign...
 

Blitzo

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I thought stealth fighters fly with Lunesburg lens (e.g. radar reflectors) during peace-time for safety purposes (alerting civilian aircraft) and security purposes (masking the true RCS signature).
F-22 and F-35 regularly fly with Lunesburg lens over Korean peninsula, and only reason why Su-30MKI detected J-20 in Tibet was because it was flying in peace-time mode with Lunesburg lens to amplify it's RCS signature.

Yes, however IR and active emissions can be tracked during peacetime.


I have to agree with the argument that the Su-57 offers nothing, with the possible exception of the Izdeliye 30 engine.

The Su-35S had superior kinematics compared to the closest Chinese counterpart, the J-11D, and its supposed airframe enhancements were also something that SAC couldn't replicate on the J-11 series.

With the advent of modernizing Chinese avionics, weaponry, and engines, there is nothing on the 57 that the PLA would risk complicating logistical issues for.

Eh, we could've (and did) said the same for Su-35, yet they still ended up buying a small number of those.

Getting some exposure to the latest and most advanced export fighter from Russia, buying a number of the aircraft for geopolitical reasons, buying them for DACT, buying them to get a peacetime 5th gen fighter for use outside of China's borders without fear of exposing the signatures (active and IR) of J-20, imo are all fairly reasonable explanations for why China might eventually consider buying a small number of Su-57s if the price is appropriate and when the product itself is relatively mature.
 

Phead128

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$100-120 million per unit of J-20 is the LRIP estimate from 2011 (ancient) [1] [2]

The fly-away cost estimate of J-20 is $30-50 million estimated in 2016 (more recent numbers) [2] [3]

I anticipate China pump J-20's out like sausages, so variable per unit costs will drop as serial production ramps up.

Source:
[1]
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(PDF). China SignPost™ (洞察中国). 2011-01-17. Archived from
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(PDF) on 2017-09-11. Retrieved 2018-07-11.
[2]
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. CHINA POWER PROJECT by the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS). 2017-02-15. Archived from
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on 2018-02-23. Retrieved 2018-07-11.
[3]
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. South China Morning Post (SCMP). 2016-12-14. Archived from
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on 2018-04-26. Retrieved 2018-07-11.

And if any says I copied from J-20 Wikipedia, I was the original person who wrote it on Wiki.
 

SinoSoldier

Colonel
Yes, however IR and active emissions can be tracked during peacetime.




Eh, we could've (and did) said the same for Su-35, yet they still ended up buying a small number of those.

There were the TVC engines and later we found out about the airframe enhancements. And even if the Su-57E had a few tricks up its sleeve that somehow went unnoticed by keen military observers, are they really worth the money and headache that goes into integrating them?

Getting some exposure to the latest and most advanced export fighter from Russia, buying a number of the aircraft for geopolitical reasons, buying them for DACT, buying them to get a peacetime 5th gen fighter for use outside of China's borders without fear of exposing the signatures (active and IR) of J-20, imo are all fairly reasonable explanations for why China might eventually consider buying a small number of Su-57s if the price is appropriate and when the product itself is relatively mature.

I'll reply in point form:

1. Exposure: I do not see how this justifies spending billions of dollars and complicating integration/logistical issues. What other air force hostile to China will operate these jets? If you're arguing that the PLAAF could learn a few things from the Su-57's design, then the PLA firstly would need to be convinced that the Su-57 offers a distinct advantage or two over the J-20 and that those advantages are critical enough to warrant the purchase.

2. DACT: This bridges to the above point. What is the point of DACT with a Su-57 when you know that none of your immediate adversaries will operate this airframe?

3. Peacetime use: That is why the J-20 carries Luneberg lens and shuts off its radar in peacetime. You don't need a separate 5th generation platform to do that.

If we're to go by the logic of "if X can potentially do Y, then perhaps we need to by X", then China should place an order for every Russian platform out there. Money doesn't grow on trees and spending that money requires serious justification.
 

Phead128

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What would you choose?

  1. $3-4 Billion USD dollars for a squadron of Su-57E.
  2. $3-4 Billion USD for R&D for a 6th generation fighter.

Afterall, the entire 5th generation J-20 fighter program's R&D costs was
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Give a fraction of that amount to a Private company like Shenyang, and they can pump out a 6th gen prototype that would TROUNCE the Su-57E in a minute.

If all else equal, a 5.5+ fighter jet by Shenyang is better than a 4.5++++++++++ fighter jet by Sukhoi.
 
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Blitzo

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There were the TVC engines and later we found out about the airframe enhancements. And even if the Su-57E had a few tricks up its sleeve that somehow went unnoticed by keen military observers, are they really worth the money and headache that goes into integrating them?

That depends on how much money it would be.
A better question at this stage is to ask whether we can be assured that in the medium to long term future that it would always never be worth the money for the PLA to acquire a small number of Su-57s. I'm not convinced we can rule it out.


I'll reply in point form:

1. Exposure: I do not see how this justifies spending billions of dollars and complicating integration/logistical issues. What other air force hostile to China will operate these jets? If you're arguing that the PLAAF could learn a few things from the Su-57's design, then the PLA firstly would need to be convinced that the Su-57 offers a distinct advantage or two over the J-20 and that those advantages are critical enough to warrant the purchase.

2. DACT: This bridges to the above point. What is the point of DACT with a Su-57 when you know that none of your immediate adversaries will operate this airframe?

3. Peacetime use: That is why the J-20 carries Luneberg lens and shuts off its radar in peacetime. You don't need a separate 5th generation platform to do that.

If we're to go by the logic of "if X can potentially do Y, then perhaps we need to by X", then China should place an order for every Russian platform out there. Money doesn't grow on trees and spending that money requires serious justification.

1. Similar arguments could've been made about Su-35s, and those arguments were made. I made a few of them myself in the past.

2. I think the idea of DACT isn't necessarily to have air combat training against an aircraft that opponents will operate, but rather merely to have air combat training against a "dissimilar" type. Of course, there is also the good chance that India will end up buying Su-57s in the longer term too.

3. That's assuming J-20s deployed outside of China's borders during peacetime wont' have a reason to emit actively, or that the PLA are comfortable with allowing their IR signatures get revealed, or that there are no ways for the RCS of J-20 to be otherwise extrapolated despite J-20s luneberg lens.


Just for the record, at this stage I don't think China is going to buy the Su-57, but I do think that we can come up with a few serviceable reasons for why they might consider it.
For the longest time I came up with similar reasons for why I think China wouldn't buy Su-35s, but they ended up doing so as well. So I think it would be an overextension for us to say that China will never buy Su-57s in the future either.

A purchase of Su-57s would very much be a luxurious afterthought for the PLA and not contribute heavily to the overall 5th generation combat fleet of the PLA and likely not be part of the PLA's system of systems.
 
D

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What would you choose?

  1. $3-4 Billion USD dollars for a squadron of Su-57E.
  2. $3-4 Billion USD for R&D for a 6th generation fighter.

Afterall, the entire 5th generation J-20 fighter program's R&D costs was
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($30 billion RMB).

Give a fraction of that amount to a Private company like Shenyang, and they can pump out a 6th gen prototype that would TROUNCE the Su-57E in a minute.

If all else equal, a 5.5++++++ fighter jet by Shenyang is better than a 4.5+++++++ fighter jet by Sukhoi.
To be fair again, we have no idea if the jet that Shenyang will turn out will be a true 6th gen, or would it even cost that amount in total. Numbers always starts to fluctuate once a project gets official funding and things become serious, right now the J-31 is as thread bare as it gets. There is 0 to no progress on matters regarding avionics, radar, engine and stealth beyond the project demonstrator.
 

Phead128

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To be fair again, we have no idea if the jet that Shenyang will turn out will be a true 6th gen, or would it even cost that amount in total. Numbers always starts to fluctuate once a project gets official funding and things become serious, right now the J-31 is as thread bare as it gets. There is 0 to no progress on matters regarding avionics, radar, engine and stealth beyond the project demonstrator.

That's because Shenyang is using private funding on this, it doesn't have State funding like J-20's $4.4 billion R&D budget.

Shenyang probably spent like <$500 million max on the J-31 R&D, a fraction of the amount spend on J-20.
 
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