Russian efforts to sell the Su-57/PAK FA to China

Air Force Brat said:

Roger that! it drives me crazy, kinda reminds me of the Democrats in the house, concentrating on everything, but the defense of the Nation. Remember our Indian buddy "Bar Brother", PAK-FA was gonna be invisible because they were using "composites" and jamming, it was be the best fighter aircraft in the world once India started to build it?? just sayin??? Wow

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I remember "Bar Brother". He said a lot of things including crazy stuff just to defend the program. I wonder how he felt when India abandoned it.

The biggest problem that India has is not Pakistan but the Indian bureaucracy. No maze runner would survive their challenge. Amazingly India made a relatively quick exit from the PAKFA program. I guess it must be so bad that even the bureaucrats could not take the crap. .

Sounds like a political buy, which I also believed the S-400 and the Su-35 purchases was.

Just like in the recent US-China trade discussions, China has shown to be more than willing to use the power of the wallet to make purchases of things it does not need just to incur political favor. What they are trying to do with Trump, they have been doing with Putin.

Tam said:

Sounds like a political buy, which I also believed the S-400 and the Su-35 purchases was.

Just like in the recent US-China trade discussions, China has shown to be more than willing to use the power of the wallet to make purchases of things it does not need just to incur political favor. What they are trying to do with Trump, they have been doing with Putin.

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I'm not sure I would label it purely political, China has an interest in capability and tech, all tech, China has become a technical vacuum, because they are on the way to becoming a tech giant, preferably they desire to become THE tech giant. I think most of us would agree that China is primarily interested in growing their military into a powerhouse, the way you do that is to acquire all the latest and greatest, incorporate what is functional, and discard the rest..

I believe China would love for the former Soviet Union/Russia to require a great deal of the US militaries attention on the far side of the world, just like the old days.... and so an investment in helping the Su-57 to become a viable threat in Europe, the Middle East, even the Arctic?? would be ultimately beneficial to their long term defensive need??

I was an Su-35 believer, until some of you convinced me it was nonsense, then, surprise, surprise, China bought 24 Su-35's, in spite of us? LOL

Air Force Brat said:

I was an Su-35 believer, until some of you convinced me it was nonsense, then, surprise, surprise, China bought 24 Su-35's, in spite of us? LOL

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I remember that and the insistence every time news surfaced that the SU-35 deal was on and then the usual repeated pushback that nothing official was being confirmed even when deliveries were being scheduled. It would be interesting to match what was said then about why China would not buy the SU-35 and to what extend the same reasoning are used against the SU-57. I can almost see history repeating. LOL.

Tam said:

Sounds like a political buy, which I also believed the S-400 and the Su-35 purchases was.

Just like in the recent US-China trade discussions, China has shown to be more than willing to use the power of the wallet to make purchases of things it does not need just to incur political favor. What they are trying to do with Trump, they have been doing with Putin.

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Pardon if I sound rude, but so far there is no deal, there is no purchase, there are no reliable reports sans anything official, IMO not even a consideration by the PLAAF to even think about a purchase and yet some here still rate this a s a done deal


Deino

Air Force Brat said:

I'm not sure I would label it purely political, China has an interest in capability and tech, all tech, China has become a technical vacuum, because they are on the way to becoming a tech giant, preferably they desire to become THE tech giant. I think most of us would agree that China is primarily interested in growing their military into a powerhouse, the way you do that is to acquire all the latest and greatest, incorporate what is functional, and discard the rest..

I believe China would love for the former Soviet Union/Russia to require a great deal of the US militaries attention on the far side of the world, just like the old days.... and so an investment in helping the Su-57 to become a viable threat in Europe, the Middle East, even the Arctic?? would be ultimately beneficial to their long term defensive need??

I was an Su-35 believer, until some of you convinced me it was nonsense, then, surprise, surprise, China bought 24 Su-35's, in spite of us? LOL

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Did I mention that I believed that the Su-35 buy was politically, and not technologically, motivated?

Brumby said:

I remember that and the insistence every time news surfaced that the SU-35 deal was on and then the usual repeated pushback that nothing official was being confirmed even when deliveries were being scheduled. It would be interesting to match what was said then about why China would not buy the SU-35 and to what extend the same reasoning are used against the SU-57. I can almost see history repeating. LOL.

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Many years ago, near the turn of the century, the Russians were harping that the Chinese would buy the Su-27SKM like it was a done deal. This is an improved Su-27SK with the avionics of the MKK that would enable it to use R-77, Kh-31A/P, KAB bombs and so on.

It was indeed very logical for the Chinese to buy this plane. It was directly tailored for their needs and made to succeed their Su-27SK buys and supplement the Su-30MKK buys with what is in effect, an Su-30MKK single seater.

Guess what? The Chinese never bought this plane. The Russians tried to peddle it to the Indonesians, and later the plane became a prototype for their own RuAF Su-27 upgrades.

Bltizo said:

That depends on how much money it would be.
A better question at this stage is to ask whether we can be assured that in the medium to long term future that it would always never be worth the money for the PLA to acquire a small number of Su-57s. I'm not convinced we can rule it out.

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Yeah but is that a reasonable prospect? Seeing how the alleged uses of the SU-57 can be delegated to other 4th- and 5th-generation platforms in the PLAAF/PLAN, sure, there is a possibility of a purchase but that likely remains very low.

Bltizo said:

1. Similar arguments could've been made about Su-35s, and those arguments were made. I made a few of them myself in the past.

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Yes, but at the time of the Su-35 purchase it was well-known that the Su-35s possessed something that no other Chinese aircraft had at that time: thrust vectoring. This was also when the J-11D project was still in its early stages of flight testing. Neither of those conditions remain in the context of the J-20 and Su-57.

Bltizo said:

2. I think the idea of DACT isn't necessarily to have air combat training against an aircraft that opponents will operate, but rather merely to have air combat training against a "dissimilar" type. Of course, there is also the good chance that India will end up buying Su-57s in the longer term too.

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But this argument can be made for any type of non-Chinese aircraft. The question is: does the opportunity to train with a dissimilar 5th-generation aircraft justify the immense costs and headache of inducting a redundant aircraft?

Bltizo said:

3. That's assuming J-20s deployed outside of China's borders during peacetime wont' have a reason to emit actively, or that the PLA are comfortable with allowing their IR signatures get revealed, or that there are no ways for the RCS of J-20 to be otherwise extrapolated despite J-20s luneberg lens.

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Even if we assume that the PLAAF is comfortable doing peacetime patrols using 5th-generation aircraft, there is little reason to believe that the J-20 can't be manipulated such that its true IR and radar signatures are hidden. The United States has never done these kind of peacetime patrols with F-22s, and even during the occasional times at which the Raptors are used to intercept RuAF bombers, their confidence in using these aircraft implies that there is indeed a way to artificially inflate their IR or radar return.

Bltizo said:

Just for the record, at this stage I don't think China is going to buy the Su-57, but I do think that we can come up with a few serviceable reasons for why they might consider it.
For the longest time I came up with similar reasons for why I think China wouldn't buy Su-35s, but they ended up doing so as well. So I think it would be an overextension for us to say that China will never buy Su-57s in the future either.

A purchase of Su-57s would very much be a luxurious afterthought for the PLA and not contribute heavily to the overall 5th generation combat fleet of the PLA and likely not be part of the PLA's system of systems.

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I don't mind a thread in which we engage in food-for-thought debates, but let's not pretend that this Su-57 offer is any indication of intent. None of the sources have shown any Chinese interest in the aircraft.

SinoSoldier said:

Yeah but is that a reasonable prospect? Seeing how the alleged uses of the SU-57 can be delegated to other 4th- and 5th-generation platforms in the PLAAF/PLAN, sure, there is a possibility of a purchase but that likely remains very low.



Yes, but at the time of the Su-35 purchase it was well-known that the Su-35s possessed something that no other Chinese aircraft had at that time: thrust vectoring. This was also when the J-11D project was still in its early stages of flight testing. Neither of those conditions remain in the context of the J-20 and Su-57.



But this argument can be made for any type of non-Chinese aircraft. The question is: does the opportunity to train with a dissimilar 5th-generation aircraft justify the immense costs and headache of inducting a redundant aircraft?



Even if we assume that the PLAAF is comfortable doing peacetime patrols using 5th-generation aircraft, there is little reason to believe that the J-20 can't be manipulated such that its true IR and radar signatures are hidden. The United States has never done these kind of peacetime patrols with F-22s, and even during the occasional times at which the Raptors are used to intercept RuAF bombers, their confidence in using these aircraft implies that there is indeed a way to artificially inflate their IR or radar return.



I don't mind a thread in which we engage in food-for-thought debates, but let's not pretend that this Su-57 offer is any indication of intent. None of the sources have shown any Chinese interest in the aircraft.

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I'm not going to engage all of these points you raised because I agree with all of them.

I especially agree with the fact that China has not shown any interest or intent in Su-57 and this is a story being spun buy journalists who don't know better.

However the fact that China did end up buying a small number of Su-35s where very similar arguments were presented, means to me that I think at this stage we cannot rule out a possibility of a purchase of a small number of Su-57s some point in the future for similar reasons to why Su-35 was bought. (I.e. for su-57 it would be Tvc and kinematics of a certain kind on a VLO aircraft, among other reasons)

I don't understand why PLAAF bought the Su-35S in such insignificant numbers. Did China get unlimited access to the Su-35S engines??